South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st February)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Decent trade swell Tues - Thurs
• Generally light winds Tues + Thurs, mod/fresh S'lies Wed
• Strong E'ly groundswell building Fri, peaking Sat, easing slowly Sun, with generally light winds
• Plenty of swell potential for the long term too

Recap: Conditions slowly improved across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW over the weekend as the onshores gradually eased though there was still some lump and bump around. Northern NSW down to the Mid North Coast saw pockets of light offshore winds and thus cleaner conditions though freshening NE breezes each afternoon created choppy conditions. Wave heights eased from 4ft in Northern NSW on Saturday 3-4ft on Sunday and 3ft+ today. SE Qld saw steady 3ft+ sets at most open beaches each day. 

Trade-swell-o-rama at the Superbank this afternoon

Next week (Feb 2 - 5)

There are more curveballs in this week’s synoptics than a major league baseball team.

First up remember those two lows in the Tasman Sea, discussed early last week but dismissed in Friday’s notes? Well, the second one is still expected to form west of Tasmania around Thursday (outside of our swell window), but the first will now crop up off the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, peaking in strength overnight before abating and slipping to the south-west on Wednesday.

However, despite showing a reasonable fetch on its western flank, the bulk of the swell generating winds will be tucked up intiside the Hunter curve. So, confidence for any south swell to make its way north into Northern NSW is very limited. One or two beaches on the Mid North Coast may pick up some 3ft+ sets very late Tuesday, remaining Northern NSW south swell magnets are a slightly better chance for Wednesday but overall it’s pretty knife-edge stuff. Keep your expectations low.  

Anyway, we’ve got way better surf potential developing to the east. 

As discussed over the last week, we’ve got an active MJO phase across the region, and a strong high pressure ridge across New Zealand is cradling a conveyor belt of tropical lows, including one remnant and two existing tropical cyclones (TC Bina, TC Lucas, TC Ana - see recent chart from JTWC below). It’s a very dynamic pattern, and we’re still on track for a sustained run of E’ly groundswell. 

Of the two active tropical cyclones, TC Ana is furtherest away, contained in the monsoon trough and is tracking E/SE towards the South Pacific. Although its path is not usually viewed as being favourable for East Coast swell development, the supporting ridge to the south was active all weekend and E/SE thru’ SE gales will continue into tomorrow. Therefore, we’ll see a healthy spread of easterly swell fill in across our region, so Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will see fluctuating E’ly swell between 3ft and 5ft, depending on exposure. 

Of course, surf size will be smaller running down the points, and a gusty S’ly change on Wednesday (associated with that Tasman Low, mentioned earlier) will confined the best options to sheltered locations - but Tuesday’s looking fun with light variable winds and afternoon sea breezes (expect slightly undersized surf early morning). Winds should become light and variable across most coasts by Thursday as the Tasman Low retreats southwards and devolves into a broad trough. 

TC Lucas has much more potential for sizeable surf.

It’s currently positioned west of Vanuatu, inside the Coral Sea, and will pass over New Caledonia early Wednesday, thereafter tracking very slowly south-west towards the NSW coast - though probably dissipating before it has a chance to influence local winds to any major degree (that's a good thing).

Although wind speeds won’t be amazingly strong through TC Lucas' latter developments in the northern Tasman Sea, it’ll be working on the active sea state generated by TC Ana and thus will greatly enhance projected wave heights across the region. 

As for size: calculating the exact phase of each overlapping swell train is a little tricky, so let’s pain in broad brushstrokes. 

Friday is where we’ll start to see the bulk size from TC Lucas start to fill in, ahead of a peak in size on Saturday. Wave heights should build to 6ft+ at exposed coasts through the day, and current expectations are for a weak pressure gradient to hold across the coast, maintaining light variable winds and sea breezes. We might see some bigger sets late afternoon.

This size range will overpower the beaches, so with surfable options limited to regional points, expect crowds to be heavily concentrated. However it’s worth noting that this is expected to be a drawn out swell event so there may be more benefit in aiming for the backside (once everyone is well and truly buggered from days of paddling).

This weekend (Feb 6 - 7)

TC Lucas is expected to maintain strength in the Central/Northern Tasman Sea into Friday afternoon (see below), which means we’ll see a broad peak holding into Saturday, probably pushing 6-8ft+ at exposed coasts in Northern NSW, though possible a little smaller across SE Qld (thanks to the angle of the fetch and its latitude. 

For what it’s worth, we could see more size than this - not so much because of wind strength, but the sustained nature of the fetch, and the fully developed sea state I discussed on Friday - though I really want to see another couple of model runs before committing. 

At this stage there’s no sign of any major synoptic feature to influence local winds, so current expectations are light and variable with afternoon sea breezes. Once again, remember that ‘variable’ means ‘from any direction’, which could be onshore. Point being: it’s unlikely that we’ll see any major strength for any significant length of time from any one direction.  

Wave heights will be easing through Sunday - more prominently in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW than the Mid North Coast - but early morning is should still pick up 6-8ft sets at some exposed coasts south of the border. 

Next week (Feb 8 onwards)

Trades will remain active north of New Zealand next weekend which will maintain useful E’ly swell into next week, as the weekend’s swell eases more rapidly from Monday. 

A small low passing south of Tasmania over the weekend will generate fresh new S’ly swell for Northern NSW early next week, though no major size is expected. 

At the same time, more tropical cyclone activity is pegged for our NE swell window, with a new system forming in the Coral Sea on Sunday - initially outside of our swell window - plus another system out near Fiji.

Their swell potential is as yet unclear, and we probably won’t see any strong activity from these systems until the end of next week. However, it looks like our eastern swell window still has a ways to go. 

Gotta say, it’s a pretty exciting time to be looking for waves along the East Coast. Hope you can get amongst it!

 See you Wednesday.