South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 29th January)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid though easing trade swells over the weekend, biggest in northern NSW
• Easing winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW over the weekend, breezes tending N/NE across the MNC
• Strong E'ly swells building from Tues
• Broad, sizeable peak from Thurs thru' Sat

Recap: Developing E/SE winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW have bumped up an otherwise fun round of trade well that’s maintained 3-4ft sets at exposed beaches, with smaller options along the points and at other protected spots. Locations south from about Yamba have seen much lighter winds (early SW in Coffs, for example), and therefore better surface conditions - though the lower Mid North Coast is being affected by a developing ridge and associated onshore flow. Surf size is a little bigger here too thanks to the secondary swell. 

This weekend (Jan 30 - 31)

No major change to the weekend forecast.

The ridge affecting SE Qld and Far Northern NSW will weaken into Saturday, causing the pressure gradient to relax and local winds to ease. Ideally, we need a synoptic offshore to iron out the bumps, and this isn’t likely, so, expect lumpy conditions at exposed spots though it should be a significant improvement from today.

South from about Ballina, we’ll see winds swing to the NE and gradually freshen though most of the strength will be found south from Coffs, and even then it won’t be too bad - there’ll be workable options inside sheltered northern corners. 

As for surf, the weekend’s energy will be sourced from a merging of the two ridges that have been in place across the Tasman Sea over the last few days, though the broad (merged) system is retreating north, and will gradually weaken, which will lead to an easing later Sunday and into Monday. 

Most open beaches should see steady size both days, anywhere between 3ft and 5ft depending on exposure, with the upper end of this size range across Northern NSW, thanks to the southern ridge being the stronger of the two (so expect the lower end of this size range throughout SE Qld). There could also be some bigger sets across the lower Mid North Coast early Saturday. Expect smaller surf across the points. 

All in all, plenty of surf this weekend with typical summer conditions. Nothing epic but worth a paddle for sure.

Next week (Feb 1 onwards)

So, a few changes for next week - though mainly around the development of two lows in the Tasman Sea, which were to offer south swell potential for Northern NSW

The latest model runs have shunted these systems a little further to the west (the first developing pretty much over the top of Tasmania on Tuesday, see below; the second well west of Tasmania around Thursday), and this has - for now - wiped out any swell prospects from each. I’ll keep a close eye on things and will update in the comments below if there’s a major trend back in our favour.

However, this is no cause for concern, because the northern Tasman Sea and South Pacific remains very active under the influence of an MJO (as mentioned by Craig more than two weeks ago, see indepth here). Therefore we’re still on track for a sustained run of sizeable easterly swell for our region.



At the moment, we’ve got a warning out for a developing tropical cyclone north-east of Vanuatu, which will probably occur within the next 24 hours. This is contained with an active monsoon trough, which currently stretches from Indonesia, across Northern Australia into the western Pacific and then across to the South Pacific, somewhere south of the Cook Islands and about at SE Qld latitudes. It’s an impressive setup, and is slow moving, which means we’ll see only small changes over the next week or more.

The developing cyclone itself isn’t the main area of interest for us though. A large Tasman high will take up position across New Zealand over the coming days, providing a supporting cradle to the tropical developments to the north as they cycle through a broad monsoon conveyor belt.  

As each system pushes south towards the high, it’ll broaden and tighten the easterly flow between the two, beginning this weekend but reaching a peak around Wednesday or Thursday (see below). That’s four or five days of near-stationary E’ly gales in a prime region of our swell window. Such slow developments greatly enhance surf potential as the ocean reaches what’s known as a ‘fully developed sea state’, which is the theoretical upper energy limit for a given fetch.

Perhaps it’s easiest to think of this in the way that swell events are often anticipated from a regular low pressure system or southerly change - quickly up one day, a short plateau then a steady drop in size. However, in this case, we’ll see a more gradual increase, a broad plateau over three or four days, and then a slow decline in wave heights. As such, we should see close to a week’s worth of energy from this one pattern.

As for specifics, Monday and maybe early Tuesday is likely to see typical residual energy from the weekend, holding 3-4ft at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, a little smaller in SE Qld (smaller on the points), with generally light morning winds tending moderate onshore through the day. 

From Tuesday onwards, the Mid North Coast will be at risk of moderate to fresh N/NE winds (worst days Tues, Fri), thanks to a ridge of high pressure abutting the coast and a southerly change pushing up from the south. However, its effects will decrease with increasing northerly latitude, so Far Northern NSW and SE Qld may only see these winds through the afternoons, with much less strength. 

Tuesday is where we’ll start to see the E/NE swell kick in to gear, building to 4-5ft through the day, however Thursday thru’ Saturday is where the peak of the swell is expected, with sets pulsing sporadically in the 6ft+ range at times, in fact some parts of Northern NSW could see sets closer to 8ft at times (expect smaller surf running down the points and into sheltered locations).

Ordinarily, a regular transitory system of this size in this neck of the woods would be worth 4-6ft across the region however I've bumped up wave heights by a foot or two because of the slow moving synoptic pattern and the associated fully developed sea state.

Have a great weekend!