South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd December)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E'ly swell from TC Yasa peaking overnight Wed, easing from Thurs onwards
• Fri/Sat looking fun for the open beaches with generally light winds
• Small trade swell next week, possibly getting bigger later in the week/weekend

Recap: Tuesday was mainly northerly wind-affected, though the E’ly swell muscled up to 4ft at exposed spots. Winds eased back across the Mid North Coast through the day and became light and variable into the afternoon, allowing for a great afternoon of surf south from Yamba. Light offshores then spread across remaining coasts overnight, allowing for a morning of excellent conditions just about everywhere, with the east swell maintaining inconsistent 4ft sets at exposed beaches (smaller along the points and protected spots). Gusty S/SE winds have enveloped the coast through the day, reaching Yamba and Byron at 10:30am (an hour before Coffs!) with SE winds spreading across SE Qld this afternoon.

Wednesday morning lines in Coffs Harbour

Kirra late Wednesday morning

Two empties at The Pass, Wednesday afternoon

This week (Dec 24 - 25)

If I were basing the outlook on model guidance alone, it'd be easy to assume that the peak of the swell had passed today and size would therefore ease steadily from tonight onwards. 

However, TC Yasa was still quite active way out NE of New Zealand on Monday, and allowing for 2.5-3 days travel time for the resulting period/distance, means that the final pulse of swell from this system was due to push through later today through early Thursday.

As such, it’s too early to dismiss this last pulse of energy. Buoy data is inconclusive, so we’ll simply have to wait and see how things stack up overnight. But right now I don’t have any information at hand that suggests I should deviate away from Monday’s notes. 

In any case, the biggest influence on Thursday’s waves will be the local wind. A ridge pushing in behind today’s change will maintain moderate to fresh S/SE winds across exposed coasts north from Ballina, though it’ll be light enough to allow for a brief period of SW winds across select areas early morning (southern Gold Coast, pockets of the Northern Rivers etc). Expect lingering bumps across exposed beaches (and much of the Sunny Coast) with the best waves at the outer points. Winds should also ease after lunch too. 

South from Ballina, there won’t be much wind all day, so conditions should be OK, even good across parts of the lower Mid North Coast.

And size? The background energy should be worth 3-4ft at open beaches (smaller running down the points) but assuming we see another overnight pulse, early Thursday morning could produce occasional 4-5ft bombs at the swell magnets. 

Remember: long range E'ly groundswell events are always very inconsistent, which isn't a good match for frothing Christmas holiday crowds either. So, think outside the box if you're looking to maximise your wave count.

There’ll also be some small south swell in the mix on Thursday, originating from the fetch trailing today’s change and also W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait yesterday. We won’t see much more than 2-3ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) though. 

Xmas Day looks pretty fun with light variable winds and residual 3ft+ E’ly swell at exposed beaches (smaller on the points), and small S’ly swells at south facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

This weekend (Dec 26 - 27)

All of our Thurs/Fri swell sources will continue to ease into the weekend. However we’ll see a small increase in short range E’ly swell from a developing ridge through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea. It doesn’t look terribly strong and will be somewhat disjointed, but should rebuild SE Qld beaches into the 2-3ft range both days (perhaps a little undersized early Saturday).

Also in the mix over the weekend will be a small round of southerly swell, sourced from an active frontal passage south of Tasmania today. The weaker-than-normal wind strengths and the large travel distance will result in a later time and also a lot less size and energy than we normally see from these kinds of systems, but inconsistent 2-3ft sets are likely at south facing beaches south of Byron - but it'll be slow and inconsistent.

Onshore winds are a risk both days - out of the east on Saturday, north from Ballina, and out of the N/NE on Sunday, south from Ballina - of which Sunday afternoon could become a little breezey, especially along the lower Mid North Coast. However there should be periods of light variable winds across all regions, generally in the mornings. 

Next week (Dec 28 onwards)

Northerlies look like they’ll spoil conditions on Monday. With no new swell sources on the way we’ll be looking for protected northern corners to make the most of the easing weekend energy.

Lingering troughiness across the western Tasman Sea next week has potential for a decent swell generating system to evolve, but right now there’s nothing concrete to pin down. 

Elsewhere, there’s a suggestion that the trades may resume across the South Pacific through into the Coral Sea next week too, initially maintaining small peaky surf through most of next week, however the end of the week and the following weekend is on target to see a resumption of more significant E’ly swells. But, this is still very early days. 

See you Friday!