South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th November)

Best Days: Northern corners (NNSW) early Thurs. Protected southern corners/points across most coasts Friday with a big building S'ly swell (peaking arvo). Fun mix of swells over the weekend with S'ly quadrant winds generally favouring points/sheltered spots. Stacks of surf next week too, with light winds for a few days and swell direction from the SE quadrant.

Recap: It’s been a great couple of days of S/SE groundswell. Northern NSW built from early 4ft sets up to 6ft through the day, though conditions were blustery at exposed spots under fresh southerly winds, points were excellent into the afternoon as the wavelength lengthened. SE Qld saw windy 4ft sets at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches, and 2-3ft along the outer Gold Coast points (smaller on the Sunny Coast). Wave heights have eased slowly from 4-5ft in Northern NSW today, but we’re still seeing inconsistent 2-3ft sets across the outer Gold Coast points. Early light winds are now around to a sea breeze across most coasts.

Cooking at The Pass Wednesday lunchtime

Wednesday arvo sets at Currumbin - still head high, though fat and inconsistent

This week (Nov 5 - 6)

We’ve got an upgrade from the south for Friday.

Prior to then, Thursday looks patchy, especially in SE Qld where early light breezes and small, easing swells will become choppy as N/NW tending N’ly winds strengthen to 15-20kts. In fact, these winds should kick up 2ft+ of peaky N’ly windswell very late in the day, though quality will be poor. 

The reason for the strengthening northerlies is an approaching southerly change, which has been both sped up and strengthened in the latest model runs. The models have also intensified a resulting Tasman Low developing east of Sydney on Friday. 

Timing on the southerly change is not yet clear, despite being under 24 hours away. The most likely scenario is an arrival across the Lower Mid North Coast (south of Port Macquarie) around lunchtime, then pushing north of Coffs mid-afternoon onwards, reaching the border in the early hours of the evening. Though, it could be a little quicker than this. 

As such, Thursday’s surf prospects south of the border will be confined to protected northern corners with freshening N/NW winds ahead of the change. We may also see an hour or so of light variable winds just before the change hits. Expect today’s S/SE swell to ease back to 2-3ft at exposed spots, becoming smaller through the day. 

Southerly swells should build steadily across the Mid North Coast on Thursday afternoon in the wake of the change, though the initial trailing fetch won’t be terribly strong (the main size will originate from the developing Tasman Low) so we probably won’t see maximum size kick in until Friday. Locations picking up the early size will be wind affected. 

Strong to gale force S/SW winds will dominate the Mid North Coast up to about Byron on Friday, but it’ll be lighter in strength across SE Qld, also more S’ly in direction. Building S’ly swells will be very wind affected across exposed Northern NSW locations and surf size should push north of 8ft+ at the swell magnets, though I’m expecting maximum size into the afternoon (the low will reach peak strength Friday morning). Under these conditions only sheltered locations will have anything rideable, and there'll be a lot of sweep along the points handling the size.

We’ll probably start off pretty small across SE Qld with small residual swells at dawn (the N'ly windswell from Thursday will be rapidly easing), but the new south swell should build steadily through the morning and into the afternoon with exposed northern ends and south swell magnets reaching a wind affected 4-6ft by the afternoon. Outer points are likely to peak late around the 3-4ft mark and they’ll be your best bet under the S’ly breeze. On the balance, expect a little less size across the Sunny Coast (the acute southerly swell direction won’t really favour sheltered inner points, either). 

This weekend (Nov 7 - 8)

A rapid easing of swell and wind is expected on Saturday. The Tasman Low will be a brief event so the swell will come up quickly, and then abate equally rapidly - so expect perhaps wave heights to be down a third of Friday’s late size by early Saturday morning, trending smaller later. Conditions should be much better though with moderate SW winds, still wobbly at exposed spots but clean along the various points. Winds will veer S'ly through the day.

Another front racing through the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday will generate more south swell for Sunday, along with a renewal of S/SE winds across the coast as a high ridges in from the south. South facing beaches in Northern NSW should rebuild to 3-5ft through the day, though it’ll be smaller in SE Qld, around 3ft+ at exposed south swell magnets and 2-3ft across the outer Gold Coast points, which will also pick up some short range S/SE swell from the local airstream.

Also in the water this weekend will be an inconsistent E/NE swell from an impressive fetch developing today, on the eastern flank of a broad Tasman trough (north of New Zealand). However, the models have slightly sped up the fetch’s southward trajectory, which reduces its swell potential a little. Infrequent 3ft+ sets are likely across Northern NSW from this source on Saturday, holding into Sunday, but it’s probably that the S’ly swell will be more dominant (and certainly more consistent).

Additionally, because of where this fetch developed, and its orientation mainly towards Central/Southern NSW, I reckon we’ll see smaller E/NE energy north of about Ballina or thereabouts - so don’t get your hopes up in SE Qld from this source.

Next week (Nov 9 onwards)

The front responsible for the weekend’s southerly change and southerly swell will stall across the eastern Tasman Sea, strengthening around a low pressure centre off the SW tip of New Zealand from late Saturday into Sunday and Monday (see below). A secondary E/SE fetch exiting western Cook Strait on Monday will concurrently generate additional energy arriving across Southern NSW mid-week. 

This pattern should result in a mix of swells out of the SE quadrant for quite a few days. Initially we’ll see easing sideband swells from the S/SE thru’ SE across open beaches - Monday should hold 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, but we’ll be down to 3-4ft by the Tuesday, perhaps a little smaller through the day (note: the models don't like these few days of energy and are undercalling IMO). Our weekend E/NE swell will probably be all gone by Monday too. 

Across SE Qld, we'll see less size from this source but the outer Gold Coast points should pick up some fun - though inconsistent - runners in the 2ft+ range Monday and maybe early Tuesday.

The new SE swell should fill in around Wednesday (3-4ft open beaches south of Byron) then gradually ease from Thursday onwards. Expcect a foot or so smaller across SE Qld's open beaches, and smaller surf on the points. We'll see a small undercurrent of persistent S/SE energy too (see sources below) though this will mainly favour Northern NSW.

Local conditions look great early in the week with a benign pressure pattern resulting in light morning winds and afternoon sea breezes. Freshening northerlies are likely at some point Wednesday and Thursday as a new high pressure system muscles up in the Tasman Sea. 

See you Friday!