South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 5th October)

Best Days: Tues/Wed: strong, building E'ly swell, generally light winds. Holding into Thurs AM then easing, but becoming wind affected from the north. 

Recap: Rapidly easing S/SE swell delivered a few 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron early Saturday, before size eased further through the day. A new trade swell that built Sunday started off a little slow and undersized, but increased from 1-2ft to 2-3ft across SE Qld, but smaller south from Ballina. Conditions were OK with generally light to moderate onshore winds, and occasionally glassy/variable patches. Today has seen similar conditions north from Yamba (moderate onshore early, then tending light/variable and glassy thru’ the day) as the E/NE swell has continued to slowly build, with the Gold and Sunshine Coasts around 3ft, almost 4ft at times. Surf size is still smaller south from Ballina, and freshening NE winds are creating many problems across the Mid North Coast.

Monday afternoon sets at Currumbin

Small Monday peelers at Noosa

This week (Oct 6 - 9)

In short, there’s no change to the forecast issued Friday. 

The main feature on the charts right now is an easterly dip in the north-eastern Tasman Sea, midway between New Caledonian and Fijian longitudes (see below). A broad high to the south is squeezing the easterly flow between the two, and it’s been stationary for a few days now so will generate a long-lived pulse of groundswell that will fill in on Tuesday, before peaking Wednesday and then easing slowly from Thursday morning onwards.

At its peak (Wed)nesday, we’ll see occasional 6ft+ sets at exposed beaches, many of which will become overpowered, so you’ll have to aim for sheltered spots and points, as they’ll be a little smaller and more manageable. Expect smaller surf either side of this (early Tues, later Thurs). The size distribution should be reasonably similar across most coasts (the position, strength and movement of this system is very good) however the main influence on wabe heights at your local will be the underlying bathymetry. Most locations have their own preferences for size, period and direction - and (relatively) long period east swells such as this are less common than those from the south, so just be mindful that your mileage may vary at times.

As for conditions, a weak trough along the coast will maintain generally light variable conditions across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, tending light to moderate N’ly at times across the Mid North Coast, thanks to a stalled southerly change (that’ll reach the lower MNC overnight). In fact, locations south of Port Mac may pick up a temporary southerly flow early Tuesday. 

Also, keep in mind that ‘variable’ winds means ‘from any direction’, which can be onshore. Though, no major strength is expected - and if it crops up, it probably won’t last lone.

Restrengthening northerlies on Thursday will mainly affect the Mid North Coast up to about Yamba, with less strength in the Far North and across SE Qld - though it will crop up and spoil the surf after lunch. So, aim for an early paddle.

Northerly winds will then continue into Friday but also ease, ahead of a late S’ly change across the Mid North Coast. With easing E’ly swells (4ft open beaches), options will be much more limited but there’ll be waves at times, just nowhere near as good as earlier in the week.

And just for the record, Wednesday afternoon thru’ Friday will see a small undercurrent of long period S’ly swell, sourced from the parent low to this evening approaching S’ly change in the south (though much further south from Tasmania, see below). The associated swell will be only a distant secondary influence thanks to the more dominant E/NE swell, but south swell magnets south of Ballina should pick up inconsistent 2-3ft sets.

This weekend (Oct 10 - 11)

After an exciting week in the surf department, the weekend’s shaping up to be a little non-descript.

A relatively slack synoptic pattern in the Tasman from Friday onwards is expected to result in no major new swell sources, so we’ll be relying on background, peripheral energy in the 2ft range. 

A weak trough forming off the North Coast early Saturday will drive freshening S/SE winds across the region, and this may end up being upgraded to a local swell source over the coming days, but right now the weekend doesn’t looking terribly exciting for surfers. 

Next week (Oct 12 onwards)

A stalled trough in the Tasman Sea over the weekend and an extending ridge through into the South Pacific may become a good catalyst for a new E’ly swell source next week. Too early to pin down specifics right now though.

The weekend’s trough off the North Coast may also hang around locally and generate some E/SE swell for our region, though it’s not showing on the charts right now.

Elsewhere, and a series of strong fronts are expected to push into the lower Tasman Sea early next week, suggesting mid-week will pick up a decent south swell for Northern NSW.

More on this in Wednesday’s update.