South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th September)

Best Days: Sun: fun peaky E'ly swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with early light winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: fun small E'ly swell with generally light winds. Thurs/Fri: strong S'ly tending S/SE swell with good winds for the points. 

Recap: Small swells and northerly winds haven’t offered much for surfers over the last few days. The only swell of note (from a surfing perspective) is a small E’ly swell from a broadening ridge through the Coral Sea, which has supplied peaky 2ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW beaches. Early light NW winds favoured a few open beaches this morning.

Small peaks at Burleigh this morning

Small northerly peaks on the Tweed Coast

Baby glassy waves at Caloundra

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

A trough will move up the coast over the weekend, creating tricky winds at some point for most coasts, but also a few small windows of opportunity. 

Freshening northerly winds ahead of the trough will affect SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for most of Saturday - maybe an early light period on the Sunny Coast if we’re lucky. However, locations south from Ballina should see early NW winds and south from about Coffs it’ll trend light and variable into the afternoon as the trough reaches this region. 

The variable pattern will then extend north overnight, influencing locations north of Ballina, however everywhere south from about Yamba will see freshening E/SE winds from the southern flank of the trough. There is a suggestion that a small low may develop along the trough line on Sunday, somewhere in the vicinity of the Northern Rivers, and if this occurs some regions could see localised strong to gale force winds. But, confidence is only low as to when and where this might occur.

As for surf, we’ll see small waves in NSW from peripheral sources all weekend - local N’ly windswell and a faint signal of S’ly groundswell (which spiked to 15 seconds in Southern NSW today). Sets probably won’t amount to much more than 1-2ft.

SE Qld will however pick up a small building E/NE swell from the Coral Sea ridge, around 2ft on Saturday and 2-3ft Sunday. It won’t be terribly strong though, and Saturday’s winds will create a few issues away from sheltered northern corners, but Sunday should provide OK peaks at the open beaches. 

Just bear in mind that there’s a chance that the models could strengthen the aforementioned coastal low (along the trough line). If this occurs then Sunday afternoon could see a spike in local windswell. The only opportunity this could present for surfers would be for locations north of the trough line, which won’t see the same local wind strength but may pick up a spread of swell. If any more info comes to hand on Saturday I’ll update in the comments below. 

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

First off - there’s an impressive low out NE from New Zealand right now that looks great in single synoptic snapshots, but it’s tracking too fast to the east to benefit our swell potential. That being said, it has slowed slightly in the latest model runs so we should see a brief pulse of E’ly swell early next week (around Tues) but I’m not holding my breath for any major size. 

Otherwise, SE Qld will see steady short range E’ly swells through most of next week, from an anchored ridge extending from below Fiji through into the Coral Sea. Set waves will fluctuate all week in the 2-3ft range, maybe a few bigger sets across the Sunny Coast’s open beaches. But, surf size will be smaller as you head south from Ballina. 

Local conditions look OK for the first half of next week with a weak pressure gradient resulting in light morning winds and moderate sea breezes each day. The only caveat here is what may linger across the Northern Rivers on Monday morning, from Sunday's potential developing-low-on-the-trough-line. 

A more vigorous southerly change will push up the Southern NSW coast early Wednesday, reaching the Mid North Coast late afternoon, and SE Qld early Thursday. 

The change itself doesn’t look anything amazing but the parent low to the south looks to be angled quite nicely, and should generate a decent S'ly tending S/SE groundswell, building Thursday and holding Friday. At this stage, the associated front is expected to push close to the coast and a ridge pushing in from behind will maintain a couple of days of gusty S’ly winds, but early indications are that with Northern NSW’s south facing beaches likely to push the 5-6ft+ range, there’ll be enough size for protected spots. 

SE Qld outer points should do quite well these days, with size currently pegged around the 3ft+ mark. 

The long term surf outlook is quite promising, with lingering troughiness in the Tasman Sea anticipated (at my end, at least) to spin up multiple quality swell sources in our eastern swell window. Persistent low pressure near Fiji also looks like being a source for new E’ly swell too. There’s nothing concrete right now but I’m quietly confident we’ll see a resumption to an active swell pattern, with favourable winds for the points.

Have a good weekend, see you Monday!