South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 2nd September)

Best Days: Sun: light winds and a small peaky E'ly swell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Next week: small, slowly building E'ly swell (peaking Wed-Fri), with a S'ly change kicking in late Wed/Thurs and a strong S'ly swell (for Northern NSW) accompanying (smaller in SE Qld). 

Recap: A new S/SE swell built across Northern NSW on Tuesday, reaching 3ft at south facing beaches and holding into this morning before easing slowly throughout the day. Winds freshened from the south across most regions as a change pushed up the coast, and today’s seen freshening N’ly thru’ NE winds almost everywhere. Wave heights have been smaller elsewhere, including SE Qld with the only point of interest north of the border being a short range E’ly swell today from a local fetch that developed in the wake of Tuesday’s S’ly change. 

S'ly swells in Coffs this morning

Love those northerlies! (not)

This week (Sep 5 - 6)

Let’s cut to the chance - the next few days look really average indeed, mainly due to the presence of a fresh, sustained N’ly breeze.

There will be some small waves on offer, being small residual S/SE swell from passing fronts south of the Tasman, some short range E’ly swell from a building ridge in the Coral Sea, and some N’ly windswell from the local fetch. However with these accompanying winds, only protected northern corners will see workable options and wave heights will be very small here, maybe slow 2ft sets if we’re lucky.  

There is a chance that some locations on the lower Mid North Coast may see a respite from the northerly flow on Friday, as a front clips the Southern NSW coast and a trough pushes in behind, but I really wouldn’t bank on there being any great waves. 

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

It’s been interesting watching the evolution of the weather models over the last few days, regarding the weekend outlook. 

In Wednesday’s notes I mentioned a possible low forming off Southern NSW in the wake of Friday's regional troughiness, and an outside chance for a local E/SE swell in Northern NSW into Sunday. 

Tuesday’s model runs ramped this up, but today it’s all but gone - so we’re looking at small background energy both days. Fortunately, conditions will be a little better with light winds in Northern NSW both days, and on Sunday throughout SE Qld (Saturday may see a lingering northerly north of Ballina).

However, wave heights will be small. There’s an impressive low on the forecast charts that’s expected to develop NE of New Zealand tomorrow, but it’s aimed away from our swell window, to the point where I don’t think we’ll even be as lucky to pick up a faint spread of energy.  

As such the only swell source of any interest is the southern extent of a ridge through the Coral Sea, which should kick up a couple of feet of peaky E’ly swell for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW swell magnets, 1-2ft Saturday and maybe a smidge bigger for Sunday. Elsewhere expect very small slow surf both days. 

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

The ridge at the southern end of the Coral Sea will strengthen a little more early next week, lifting slow, lacklustre E’ly swells from about 2ft on Monday to 2-3ft from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and Thursday, maybe Friday. It’s only a small increase but at this size range it can make a significant difference to the viability of a decent session (local winds/banks/tide pending, of course).

Light winds are expected next week so conditions will be clean. Expect smaller surf south from Ballina.

Otherwise, the next synoptic feature to keep a watch on is a strong southerly change due late Wednesday on the Mid North Coast (overnight into the north), of which trailing fronts behind should supply some solid - though potentially wind affected - south swell throughout Northern NSW during the rest of the week. SE Qld will pick up some of this south swell, which mixed in with the east swell and southerly wind regime, should create a couple of days of fun waves at the outer Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast points. 

See you Friday!