South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 20th July)

Best Days: Wed/Thurs: fun waves at sheltered points. Sat: building local E'ly swell in SE Qld, sizeable but wind affected. Clean here (and Far Northern NSW) on Sun with solid, offshore conditions. Next week: large SE swell, though windy. 

Recap: Large south-east swells eased slowly over the weekend, providing excellent surf to many locations. Wave heights held anywhere between 6ft and occasionally 8ft across exposed locations in Northern NSW on Saturday morning, whilst SE Qld saw smaller size due to the swell source and direction, around 3-4ft across outer Gold Coast points, 4-5ft at exposed northern ends but a little smaller across the Sunshine Coast. Wave heights slowly into Sunday and then a little more into this morning, leaving SE Qld around the 2-3ft mark at exposed spots, with Northern NSW still managing occasional 4ft sets ahead of a further decrease throughout the day. 

Leftover sets at Currumbin this morning

This week (July 21 - 24)

We’ve got a whole stack of swell on the way.

However, initially the swell will be quite south in direction, and so we’ll see smaller surf throughout SE Qld. This is important because a building ridge across the coast will deliver a few days of gusty S’ly winds and this will confine the best waves to sheltered points, and they’ll be much smaller in size. 

A strong front rocketing through the lower Tasman Sea today has generated a fresh S’ly swell that’ll build throughout Tuesday across Northern NSW - arriving very late in the Far North and into SE Qld - and then peaking into Wednesday morning, before slowly easing from Thursday. Winds should start to ease more prominently south from about Yamba on Thursday but we’re looking at persistent synoptic S/SE winds north from Ballina. 

Compared to the last week of swell, which - thanks to its origins out of the south-eastern quadrant, resulted in a broad spread of size across most regions - we’re looking at a much wider range in wave heights over the coming days.

South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up 5-6ft+ sets at the height of the swell (i.e. by Wed) but they’ll be quite wind affected, and it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south (where it’ll be cleaner). The backside of these swells - i.e. Wednesday and Thursday (even as it eases) tends to produce the best waves, as the swell direction swings slightly counter clockwise, surf so don’t get too excited about the early upwards phase. Tuesday in particular will be slow to get going, especially in the north.

Across SE Qld we’re looking at much smaller surf. Tuesday will see mainly small leftovers from today, with a late (wind affected) increase at exposed spots ahead of a stronger round through Wednesday and early Thursday that may produce a few 2-3ft waves across the outer Gold Coast points, bigger near 4ft+ at exposed northern ends but a little smaller overall across the Sunshine Coast. Again, the backside of this swell will probably be the best. 

During Wednesday, we’ll also see a developing trough across central Qld waters - unusual for this time of the year - and an easterly infeed will supply small E’ly swells to SE Qld and Far Northern NSW waters on Friday, to supplement the easing S/SE swell. However winds will probably originate from the same direction, leading to average conditions.

Also in the water on Friday (mainly the Mid North Coast from mid-morning onwards, then the Far North mid-late afternoon) will be a fresh pulse of longer period S/SE swell, generated by a trailing polar low attached to the current sequence. The models aren’t picking it up very well but I reckon we’ll see occasional 4-5ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron by the end of the day. Of course, anywhere not completely exposed to the south will be a lot smaller. However this swell may arrive too late in the Far North to be overly beneficial. I’ll update on Wednesday. 

This weekend (July 25 - 26)

We’ve got an excellent round of surf in store for the weekend - well, part of it at least.

The coastal trough developing across Central Qld from Wednesday onwards will push south, freshening E’ly winds about its southern flank and generating a solid E/NE tending E’ly swell. This trough may eventually form a Tasman Low or ECL off the Mid North Coast, early next week.

Wave heights are expected to become quite large across some parts of the region - at this stage more likely around the Mid North Coast, as the strongest part of the intensification may occur just as the low slides outside of SE Qld’s swell window. Though, most locations should reach 4-6ft at some point, with a chance for more southern locations to push upwards of 8ft+ by late Sunday, depending on the position of the low and its strength. 

However the best part of this pattern is that as the trough travels south, locations to its north will see winds swing W’ly. And this is slated for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW on Sunday (locations south of the trough’s axis will be onshore). Peak wave heights may be on the decline by that time but either way we’e looking at some very solid and potentially clean surf this weekend. 

Also, remember Friday's late arrival of S/SE swell across Northern NSW? That should be in the water early Saturday but will ease steadily through the day. 

Let’s hone in on the specifics in Wednesday’s update. 

Next week (July 27 onwards)

The weekend’s developing trough-cum-Tasman-Low looks like it’ll intensify to our south, and then deliver a return SE swell for the start of next week, along with developing southerly gales.

Model guidance currently estimates next week’s wave heights should be excess of the weekend’s surf and could also push north of what we saw last week (across Northern NSW at least, anyway). 

But, that’s still quite some time away. Let’s revisit on Wednesday.