South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 17th July)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: solid surf in Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld) ideal for the points Sat and open beaches north of the border Sun. Mon: small clean leftovers across open beaches. Wed/Thurs/Fri: fun waves at protected Northern NSW spots and outer SE Qld points. 

Recap: Very large waves have persisted out of the S/SE for the last two days though the swell direction has created a large variation in size across the coast especially in SE Qld where it’s been a lot smaller. Northern NSW has managed 8ft sets both days at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere) and SE Qld has ranged from 3ft across the outer points to 4-5ft at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. Winds have held moderate to fresh from the southern quadrant (lighter SW early) so the points have offered plenty of great waves. A new E/SE pulse is filling in across the Mid North Coast this afternoon and should spread northwards overnight.

Empty insiders at The Alley early Friday

Late Friday lines at Snapper

This weekend (July 11 - 12)

Similar winds are expected on Saturday as what we’ve seen today, though they will ease back and we’re looking at a light variable flow across most regions on Sunday, under the influence of a high pressure system pushing into the Tasman Sea. So, protected locations will be your best option on Saturday, almost everywhere should be clean at some point on Sunday.

This is convenient as we’re looking at a stack of fresh E/SE (Northern NSW) tending SE (SE Qld) swell, sourced from one final intensification of the Tasman Low on Thursday. Wave heights will reach a peak on Saturday morning and then trend down into the afternoon and further into Sunday. 

Surf size should peak in the 8ft range across the Mid North Coast, and 6ft+ range across remaining Northern NSW locations on Saturday morning, but throughout SE Qld we’ll see much smaller size, from 3-5ft at exposed northern ends/south facing beaches, and 3ft across the outer points (much smaller inner points). Expect wave heights to ease by a foot or two into Sunday morning, and then a little more into the afternoon.

Sunday’s easing trend will be accompanied by much lighter winds and thus cleaner conditions, though open beaches south of the border will still be a little sizeable through the morning. 

Next week (July 20th onwards)

Incredibly, the low in the Tasman Sea is still active right now and is expected to be generating swell for the East Coast throughout Saturday and into Sunday morning. With an approx 1.5-2 day lag time across the basin, this means we’ll see (easing) easterly swells through the first half of next week. 

Winds will swing from the W to the SW on Monday as a front crosses the southern part of NSW, we’ll see a gradual freshening across the Mid North Coast and an afternoon trend to the south, but no major strength is expected north from Ballina. 

Wave heights should still manage 3-5ft across the Mid North Coast early Monday, and 3ft+ north from Yamba, but it’ll be much smaller in SE Qld (1-2ft outer points, 2-3ft exposed northern ends). Expect size to ease steadily throughout the day. 

Tuesday then looks to see fresh southerly winds as a new high pressure ridge builds across the coast. Additionally, we’ll see building S’ly swells from the low/front pushing through the Tasman Sea, which should kick up 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches (south of Byron) by late afternoon and holding into Wednesday. Of course, with these winds, only sheltered southern corners and points will be clean and they’ll be undersized through the morning, and possibly much of the afternoon in the north. So, Tuesday looks a little patchy.

This south swell won’t do a lot in SE Qld but the outer points may pick up a few 2ft+ sets, with wind affected 3-4ft waves at exposed northern ends from Wednesday through into Thursday (size will ease back across Northern NSW during this time). 

Looking further ahead, and a strong trailing polar low well south of Tasmania Tues/Wed will set up a smaller but better quality S’ly tending S/SE groundswell for Friday afternoon MNC (likely Saturday north from here) with 3-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron though very little size north of the border.

Additionally, there’s a suggestion for a deepening coastal trough off central Qld mid-late next week which may generate some punchy out-of-season E’ly swell for SE Qld later next week. But that’s a long time away.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!