South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Tues: fun waves at the beachies (Northern NSW) and outer points (SE Qld). Wed onwards: lots of S/SE wind and a mix of building swells, reaching a peak in size later Thurs/Fri. 

Recap: Saturday delivered excellent waves with slowly easing 3-4ft E’ly swells and light variable winds. Wave heights eased through Sunday and fresh N’ly winds wiped out many locations however SE Qld and Far Northern NSW saw a period of NW winds through the morning, and much of the coast benefited from a late NW tending W’ly change (accompanied with a bucketload of rain too). Today we’re back to an inconsistent 2ft, almost 2-3ft of persistent E’ly swell with light winds that swing S’ly through the morning and became fresh S/SE into the afternoon at many spots (though the Mid North Coast seemed to escape any major wind strength). 

Fun beachies at Coolum this morning

This week (June 16 - 19)

A coastal ridge will slowly build across the SE Qld coast on Tuesday before gradually merging with a passing front in the lower Tasman Sea on Wednesday. This will allow the ridge to extend across the entire Northern Tasman Sea.

As such, we’re looking at an extended period of moderate to fresh S’ly tending SE winds, though much of Northern NSW - up to about Ballina - should benefit from a temporary slack period on Tuesday, with light variable winds all day. Make the most of it.

Local winds will become pretty gusty from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and early Friday across most coasts, though being out of the S through SE, will favour protected southern ends and points quite well. 

As for surf, we’ve got a multitude of sources on the way.

First of all, stationary trades through the Northern Tasman Sea and South Pacific strengthened marginally over the last few days, and wave heights will increase a little into Tuesday with 2-3ft+ sets at exposed beaches, smaller running down the points. Light winds south from Ballina will favour the wide open beaches, whilst early SW tending S’ly then S/SE winds across the Gold and Sunshine Coasts will favour the outer points (inner points will be a little undersized).

Wednesday looks like being more of the same (in the swell department) but as the southerly change pushes along the Northern NSW coast we’ll see limited options, whilst SE Qld may see a repeat from Tuesday, albeit with a little more strength in the wind. 

Thursday is where things start to get interesting, as the strengthening ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea will generate an additional short range swell that should build towards an afternoon peak (holding into Friday) with 4-5ft+ waves on offer at exposed beaches north from Ballina (a little smaller across the Mid North Coast). Winds will be quite fresh and gusty around this time so it’ll only be suitable for sheltered locations. Expect smaller surf running down the points. 

If anything, Friday looks to be see the biggest and best waves from this strengthening ridge, but I’ll take a closer look on Wednesday.

We’ll also see a small undercurrent of long period S’ly swell from Wednesday onwards, but only in Northern NSW’s south swell magnets - of which it’ll fall below the size of the local swell sources anyway.

This weekend (June 20 - 21)

The Tasman ridge will weaken from Friday, and consequently wave heights will ease through the weekend. 

However Saturday’s still likely to be in the 3-5ft range early on so (smaller south from Yamba), and with the swell direction a little more around to the east there’ll be waves just about everywhere. Wave heights will ease to around 3ft by Sunday. 

Also in the mix will be some small sideband SE swell from a S’ly fetch developing off the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island later Wednesday and through Thursday. It’ll be aimed more so towards northern locations but we might get lucky and see some 3ft+ sets at south facing beaches (in Northern NSW) on Saturday, easing Sunday. Smaller surf is expected in SE Qld from this source.

The big risk this weekend are the local winds, associated with a developing trough that’s modelled to stall over the eastern states.

This will swing the breeze to a moderate easterly on Saturday and then northerly on Sunday. Locations further south may see a NW tending W’ly change at some point on Sunday as the trough moves offshore but the timing on this is not clear.

So, it’ll be worth getting in a session sometime this week as the weekend’s potentially going to be spoilt. But, there will be waves with windows of opportunity likely both days at a few coasts. More on this in Wednesday’s update. 

Next week (June 22 onwards)

This slow moving trough looks very interesting. Some of the latest model guidance has it hanging just off the East Coast, with a persistent E/NE thru’ NE infeed supplying punching mid-range swell for the first half of next week - though favoured towards locations further south. 

Similar developments are expected in the South Pacific throughout the long term under a blocking pattern, so I don’t think we’ll be in short supply of swell next week. It’s certainly still early days, but I really like the look of the broader setup and I have feeling we’ve got a whole bunch of quality surf days coming up for next week.