South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th April)

Best Days: Thurs: chance for a late window of offshores on the Mid North Coast, with a peaky E'ly and NE swell combo. Brief window of early light winds in the north. Fri/Sat: inconsistent but fun E'ly swell with good winds. Swell holding through Sun but winds veering gusty S'ly. Large S'ly swell building late Sun, peaking Mon, easing slowly from Tues, though windy.

Recap: Small E’ly swells managed 1-2ft waves on Tuesday, before building to 2-3ft today, with clean conditions thanks to generally light winds. Winds have come up from the north across the Mid North Coast this afternoon though.

Snapper looking lovely this afternoon

Super fun on the Superbank

This week (Apr 30 - May 1) 

It’s a real shame we’ve got freshening northerly winds for Thursday, as the current E’ly swell is expected to hold steady. 

The only expected change in characteristics over the coming days is a decrease in consistency, thanks to the swell source - a broad ridge through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman - slowly moving to the east. Most open beaches should manage 2-3ft sets, perhaps the odd bigger one at the swell magnets, 

Locations north from Coffs may be lucky and see an early light to moderate N/NW breeze, but everywhere is expected to become blown out by mid-late morning and the afternoon could see 20-25kt winds at exposed locations. These winds will generate a peaky local swell (2ft SE Qld, 3ft+ Northern NSW). 

There’s still a chance that the Lower Mid North Coast may pick up the leading edge of a W’ly wind change in the few hours before dusk. Model guidance doesn’t quite have it in until dinner time but sometimes these things run ahead of schedule. But, I wouldn’t expect anything earlier than mid-afternoon, and even then you’ll have to be as far south as possible. It’s unlikely anywhere north from Port or maybe Coffs will pick up this wind change until overnight. 

Friday will then see rapidly easing NE windswell and steady E’ly swell (as per Thursday) with light offshore winds in the north, moderate to fresh south from Yamba. Expect long breaks between sets but fun beachies. 

This weekend (May 2 - 3)

The E’ly swell looks like it’ll muscle up a little in period over the weekend, thanks to a strengthening of the trade flow south of Fiji over the coming days.

The slightly longer travel distance will probably cancel out any local size gains, so for now I’m expecting inconsistent 2-3ft+ surf at exposed beaches on Saturday, and then again on Sunday. Would even be surprised if there’s the odd bigger bomb in the mix on Sunday.

As for our south swell window, the models have stalled the current west-east progression of an amplifying Long Wave Trough, since Monday's notes were written. This hasn’t diminished its swell potential, but it has delayed the cycle around 24 hours, so we are now expecting Saturday to see very little southerly swell, and even Sunday morning will be small across many locations.

There will be two primary fetches associated with this pattern (see below) - gale force W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait early Saturday (generating the first swell) and then gale force S/SW winds associated with the parent low. This low will round the Tasmanian corner and enter NSW’s south swell window overnight Saturday, generating large swells for late Sunday and Monday. 

I’m still not particularly confident on the timing for the southerly swells on Sunday - the Mid North Coast should see an upwards trend by mid-morning, but the Far North may not pick up an appreciable size increase until mid-afternoon. And the bigger stuff could be delayed until overnight. 

I’ll firm up the arrival times on Friday with the availability of better data. But, late afternoon has the potential for 6ft+ sets on the Mid North Coast, just keep your size expectations lower as you head north from here. I doubt SE Qld will pick up much new S’ly swell until after dark on Sunday. 

As for conditions, Saturday is looking pristine with moderate to fresh westerly winds. They’ll hold into Sunday morning but a southerly change will push up the Northern NSW coast during the day and reach SE Qld by the afternoon. This will confine the best waves to sheltered points in the afternoon.

Next week (May 4 onwards)

A peak in S’ly swell is expected on Monday morning, accompanied by gusty S’ly winds. South facing beaches (south of Byron) could see 6ft+ sets or more but it’ll be smaller elsewhere. It’s shaping up to be a good day for the outer SE Qld points with 3-4ft sets on the Gold Coast, a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast (though tiny inner points). 

A trailing polar low will maintain smaller though good quality southerly swells through Tuesday as Monday’s event eases back rapidly in size. South facing beaches should manage 4-5ft+ sets south of Byron but it’ll be smaller elsewhere with 3ft surf in SE Qld. 

The long term outlook has intense polar low activity in our south swell window maintaining small southerly groundswells later next week and into the weekend across Northern NSW. 

Otherwise, a developing ridge through the Coral Sea all week will slowly building E’ly swells for SE Qld, with an extended run of fun waves for the outer points here and across Northern NSW. 

See you Friday!