Quietening down for a little while
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 20th April)
Best Days: Early Tues: tail end of the current S'ly swell, only across a few south swell magnets south of Byron. Tiny in SE Qld. Late Thurs (MNC) and Fri (remaining Northern NSW): small S'ly swells at south facing beaches south of Byron.
Recap: Building southerly swells created a wide range in wave heights from beach to beach over the weekend. In general, surf size came in very close to expectations, with south facing beaches (south Byron) seeing 3ft sets by late Saturday, and Sunday gradually pushing up towards 4-5ft+. This size range has held through today - a little higher than forecast, as the peak of the swell was slightly delayed, but also persisted longer than expected. SE Qld generally saw very small surf (away from south swell magnets) over the weekend as forecast, but today has pushed a little higher across the Gold Coast than expected, with 2ft+ sets at most beaches and 3ft+ sets at south swell magnets. Winds have been light and variable in general so conditions have been very good.
Decent early Monday sets at D'Bah
Coupla small lines on the Sunshine Coast this morning
Narrowneck picking up Monday's south swell
Lovely small peelers at The Pass
Pretty small along the Superbank
This week (Apr 21 - 24)
We’re on the backside of this most recent burst of southerly swell. Early Tuesday may see some lingering sets across south facing beaches - mainly south of Byron, but it’s hard to be confident on any size.
To use Southern NSW as a proxy (which, under most southerly swells, is anywhere from a few hours to more than half a day's travel time, depending on location), south facing beaches were 3-4ft this morning, and eased to 2-3ft this afternoon. Extrapolating this easing trend suggests some locations - probably north from about Coffs through to Byron - could see some early 3ft sets but I feel they’ll be the exception rather than the rule.
Surf size will be much smaller elsewhere, especially throughout SE Qld, where only exposed northern ends and south facing beaches of the Gold Coast will probably have anything rideable. Conditions will be generally clean with light variable winds and sea breezes. So, keep your expectations low.
Looking further ahead from Wednesday onwards, and we’re generally looking at a spell of very small surf across the region. Our east swell window is devoid of activity, however there are a couple of flukey south swells that’ll glance the coast.
The first source is crossing Tasmania right now, but the bulk fetch south of Tasmania is very west in alignment and I don’t think we’ll see any energy from it. A small W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait may kick up a small south swell for late Tuesday (Mid North Coast) and early Wednesday (Far North Coast) but I’ll be surprised if it’s more than a foot or two at south swell magnets south of Byron.
An intense cut off low and cold front will cross Tasmania early Wednesday morning, but again, the primary fetch looks poorly aimed for our region with way too much west in its alignment.
However, core winds are likely to be close to 50kts, and there’ll be an ever-so-subtle north-east track as it pushes into the lower Tasman Sea, and this may just be enough to provide a brief flush of useful south swell for exposed beaches.
Wednesday should mainly see tiny residual conditions. Thursday will see a combination of swells from two sources (see below): the primary low south of Tasmania and also an associated W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait (the two swells will only be distinguishable in the water by the overlapping swell trains).
The models don’t really like this system and to be honest I’m probably going out on a bit of a limb here, but I reckon some south facing beaches south of Byron will pick up occasional 2-3ft+ sets from this source.
But as per the weekend’s swell, the timing is important. Thursday morning will probably start off very small in all areas, with the new energy expected to reach the Mid North Coast mid-morning, ahead of a building trend from lunchtime onwards. The Far North Coast may not see new energy until very late in the day so Friday is a better chance for this swell (i.e. expect tiny conditions for most of Thursday).
In any case, this is once again an extremely flukey swell source and will probably favour a much smaller number of locations south of Byron.. even some spots considered to be reliable under south swells may dip out. The most recent south swell (yesterday/today) is a useful proxy, as it’s originating from a similar storm track (though smaller, slightly weaker storm, and a little more shadowed by Tasmania too). So if your beach didn’t pick up much over the last few days I’d hedge your bets that way for late Thursday and Friday.
As for conditions, both days look to be clean with light morning winds and weak afternoon sea breezes.
This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)
Powerful though poorly aligned fronts will pass south of Tasmania from Friday through the weekend. They’ll generate strong swells through the Tasman Sea but I’m doubtful we’ll see much size in Southern NSW due to the zonal storm track.
As a ball park figure, expect both Saturday and Sunday to see tiny to flat conditions at most beaches, and slow, intermittent 1-2ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron.
Saturday’s winds look light across most coasts but freshening northerlies are likely in Northern NSW on Sunday.
A developing ridge through the lower Coral Sea may kick up a small east swell across SE Qld for Sunday but I’m not expecting anything overly worthwhile at this stage.
Next week (Apr 27 onwards)
The weekend’s modest ridge will spread out into the northern Tasman Sea early next week and SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should see a small east swell for a few days. Nothing excellent is expected but open beaches might pick up a few slow 2ft peaks.
Otherwise, further strong fronts below Tasmania from Sunday onwards will generate a succession of southerly swells throughout next week but the storm track looks like it’ll remain quite zonal, which will keep surf size relatively small in Southern NSW for the most part.
Monday and Tuesday are on track for a reasonable pulse the 3-4ft range at south facing beaches (south of Byron) but otherwise it’s looking a little quiet. Though there are distant troughs pronged for the South Pacific that may also provide some small easterly swells.. so we can keep an eye on that too.
More on all of this in Wednesday’s update.
Comments
Urgh. I'm glad I pigged out the last 48 hours, that's thoroughly depressing.
Thanks again for the detailed report.
Just a question to Ben and the masses:
How far do you think forecasting or forecasting sites will go in the future? I mean I can’t imagine there’d be anything more one would need?
Have you ever considered Ben that your service offers too much? This is definitely not a criticism but just a comment based on the plethora of information you provide (detailed notes, forecast, surf reports, cams, screen shots, forum comments commenting on current conditions, WAMs, etc).
Thanks again for all the time you obviously put in. For what it is worth I think this site would be just fine with only forecast notes and the editorial stuff.
Thanks mate. As model guidance improves, along with the granularity of remote data acquisition, the accuracy of the wave models will improve. Though I don't think it'll be in leaps and bounds. We're more likely to see improved accuracies in local wind forecasts (i.e. to a local level).
Yeah interesting. Doesn't feel like with the east coast that > 7 days out there can be very much certainty.
PS - I hope my comment didn't sound ungrateful. It's just an observation as how much we have at our fingertips to make a decision of where to surf. Kind of why I wonder why anyone gets too upset when a surf report is different to their experience. I guess for me it would be thanks to this site (mostly) that I've learnt a fair bit of low level forecasting and weather date observation which in turn helps fit surfing in around the rest of life.
Cheers again. Don't work too hard.
Appreciate the nice words mate.
Re: "Doesn't feel like with the east coast that > 7 days out there can be very much certainty". That's a fair point, but there's some interesting context around why this is the case that's probably worthy of an article.
And, it also cherry picks at the topic. For example, what value is there in a 100% confidence outlook three weeks in advance for a 3ft trade swell, lasting two days? What would you do with that information? Conversely, if I can identify that in three Tuesdays time, the surf will be terrible, what does that mean - if anything?
What I'm getting at is that long range forecasts are only of interest of they are relevant to a particular break or stretch of coast, and generally only if the forecast exceeds the surf climate. 3-4ft south swells across Northern NSW can sometimes happen a couple of times a week, so there's no major interest in a long range forecast for that kind of surf - but a 6-8ft swell is much less common, and therefore of greater interest if it can be identified at a long lead time.
FWIW, some weather patterns that generate East Coast surf are sometimes identifiable at a couple of weeks lead time (broad trade flows). But once again, this information is useless if local winds aren't good, the tides aren't quite right and the sand's not properly lined up. Etc etc.
Anyway, this is a topic that has fascinated me for a long time (aside from the actual forecasting). Too many surfers get hung up waiting for purple blogs circumnavigating the globe, or other major weather systems: for me the best surf occurs between significant events.
One of the best results from surf forecasting has been that it focuses so much surfer energy into a concentrated period , this then creates periods of lessened visitation for the ensuing period.
The Swell Alert !!!!!! hype train attracts everyone who was thinking of visiting a break in the near future and also attracts others who had no intention of visiting except they fell victim to click bait hype.
The Superswell arrives - usually a hoax - and everyone has burnt through their flexy days / sick days / holidays and the following swells are nicely uncrowded.
If you’re going to visit a famous break mid season, then the best time is after it’s had a few swells back to back . If there’s been a recent Hollywood swell then it’s as uncrowded as you’ll find it.
The harder a break is to reach , the more effective this theory becomes.
''And, it also cherry picks at the topic. For example, what value is there in a 100% confidence outlook three weeks in advance for a 3ft trade swell, lasting two days? What would you do with that information? Conversely, if I can identify that in three Tuesdays time, the surf will be terrible, what does that mean - if anything? ''
Yeah not sure. For me it means nothing. I think the confidence we have regarding the next 5-7 days is generally useful to plan which days you're going to bother with the dawnie etc, however longer term stuff is neither here nor there for me.
Couldn't agree more with the comment regarding best surf between 'THE' days.
baby food for days.
I'm just starting to get a little concerned that after a very wet Feb/March we are drifting back into the dry pattern.
And it's only April.
dry, windless weather with no Tradewinds derived moisture flows and dry as dingo's donger westerly flows.
luckily there's still a ton of soil moisture to compensate.
but if we go into another dry winter from here we're fucked.
yeah I thought the same, this weather (and waves!) has been lovely, but these clear days feel a lot more like May, albiet a little warmer, really unusually to not get solid rains in April. Looks pretty dry for the foreseeable as well, hopefully Allah won't give us any more punishment this year?
I enjoy reading your takes on the weather and how it pertains to me (Gold Coast).
Can you elaborate on how a dry winter == fucked? I'm just a 'tard that is wondering where the waves are, always trying to learn more though. I do remember that March/April is wet around these parts from memory and it's been dry as since the Feb deluges as you pointed out.
Ben. Please don’t change a thing. I love your forecasts.
Great forecast as usual Cheers Ben
Sorry everyone, this is all my fault. I get a new board and it guarantees shit waves for at least two weeks.
Heads up would be much appreciated next time around, eh?
Well...um...the step up is coming in a few weeks...sorry... :(
We've had a couple of strong - SAM event and it's been an cooler than normal start to April in general down here but I've been loving it..
Hopefully it switches back to an easterly regime but it doesn't look so for the next 1.5+ weeks.
Swell's just hanging in there this morning. Too slow and full on the Tweed though. I paddled out to an empty bank as the set of the morning motored through, only to have the lineup go quiet for twenty minutes. Got bored and caught a dribbly one in.
I got some fun (albeit slow in between sets) today. It pulsed on and off throughout the tidal range either side of high. My mate got the fcking bomb of the day. Was easy twice as big as anything else thrown up. He took off on his fish, free fell out the lip, caught the inside rail just enough on the flat to then pull up in under the lip and he got a fcking screaming barrel heading straight for me as I was hooting at him paddling back out. Fcking made my morning just watching him on that bomb!!!
What's your thoughts on the beachie banks Ben? Other than one very well subscribed bank on the southern Goldie it's huge gutters and straight handers all along the Goldie and Tweed, especially when there's a bit of swell like the last few days.
You’re not expecting anyone to start talking about banks on here are you?
Yeah, aside of general discussion (i.e. "aren't the banks terrible at the moment!"), this topic really isn't commented on in detail for a reason.
Sheesh - not the locations secrets squirrels, just a general chat around the poor state of affairs and likely outcomes. Surf forecasting is not only about swell and wind...All time swell and perfect winds on shit banks equals shit waves.
compared to this time last year there's been reasonable sand movement here, but not enough volumes to really settle.
You really need the E component in the swell to avoid the end to end outer banks setup on the Gold Coast, that cuts channels in the bar. and forms the V shaped inshore sand.
By quieting down you mean people fucking everywhere?
Oh, you're talking about the waves.
I do have to say that it's very rare to have a week of almost dead flat conditions in April!!!
Holy shit balls.
At first I was hoping this covid situation would result in less crowded surf but now with everyone unemployed and educational institutions closed its made the crowds worse! It's at an all time God dam high...
"Doesn't feel like with the east coast that > 7 days out there can be very much certainty."
7 days?
The errors in forecasting even 2 or 3 out are significant.
Case in point these last couple of swell cycles.
Easter Monday was a bad miss. People woke up early based on a call of a strong 4-6ft S swell. It was a slow and very weak 3ft.
Later that day a pulse totally unforecast of very solid 6ft+ surf (my mate who is a glasses/sander called it 8ft on the sets) graced the regional points.
Thats a very big difference in surf quality both objectively and subjectively. People went home from the early frustrated.
A small crew for the late by contrast were screaming their lungs out at surf that stays with you a long while.
Friday just gone the carparks were full of frothers expecting to find a strong SE groundswell in the 3-4ft range. What they were greeted with was an occasional line of mucked up 2ft closeout with a northerly on it. Unsurfable.
Saturday people were expecting a pulse of S swell to arrive mid-arvo.
By dark it was close to flat.
Thats two swings and two misses on consecutive days.
Sunday was supposed to be the peak of the swell. It was a bog standard 3ft S swell day. Not bad but by the afternoon it had all the energy of a drunk punching at a paper bag.
Monday, yesterday, that was supposed to be on the decline meanwhile was a powerhouse 4-6ft , bluebird day, all day offshore.
A very bad miss.
Not having a go, I just don't think the information can be had at a detailed enough level to improve. Trying to punch numbers in and time the pulses seems to make things worse and more inaccurate.
I don't think algorithms will become any better based on the info that can be fed into them.
I've gone the other way, pulled back on the focus, tried to embrace the error margins......when the hype train gets it right the crowds that attracts are a bummer anyhow.
Luckily, the more detailed forecasts become the more people try and tune into the windows, the more the error margins become wider and ripe for the picking. If you've got the flexibility to pounce on them.
In the end nothing beats a set of experienced human eyes looking at it.
Before we assess the accuracy of my forecasts, it's worth revisiting your own comments for the southerly swell event just gone (in the comments of Friday's notes), written the day after I published (i.e. with more recent data to hand):
"I don't see much to get excited about from this synoptic. Not sure what is in the f/cast notes but I reckon 2-3ft from the Bass strait fetch and maybe 3ft+ from the parent low. it's all zonal and fast moving".
I don't agree that Monday was a "very bad miss" from me.
I called the peak of the second swell 4-6ft, arriving late Sunday in Far Northern NSW and then peaking overnight before leveling out around 3-5ft for all of Monday.
From my observation on the Tweed, Sunday was a solid 4ft, Monday was a similar size though a little stronger. So, I didn't get the duration of the peak of the swell spot on, but considering the broad area these forecast notes are written for, and also considering reports from other coasts which came in very close to expectations, I'm pretty happy with the outlook I gave, including local conditions.
Oh, and Easter Monday a "bad miss" too? You said yourself:
"People woke up early based on a call of a strong 4-6ft S swell.." but then say "Later that day a pulse totally unforecast of very solid 6ft+ surf..".
A little contradictory.. the swell was either forecast, or it wasn't. Sure, size may have not been 100% spot on but it was certainly expected, and was also monitored (in the comments of these notes) as it tracked up the coast.
Yeh, I thought your calls for this weekends/monday swells were pretty close.
Thanks LD. Was a super tricky system and I'm pretty pleased with the overall call (including Southern NSW which also saw massive variations in size - tiny through the Gong but 6-8ft sets at south swell magnets).
I have to say from my observations the forecast was really good. As has happened several times in past southerly swells, it appears swell has shown stronger (at certain times) in locations other than Leba.
Just because you don’t see it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.
I think though, the broad point: that the east coast is hard to forecast out to 7 days stacks up to even tighter time frames.
If you can't see the difference between a day that contains crowded 3ft surf at one end and 6ft+ surf at the other (easter Monday) in terms of what is worth downing tools for , I'd be surprised.
Those would be the exact things you'd be looking for in a forecast, no? Especially at such close range.
I sat with Andy M at a vantage point Monday morning as the swell was supposed to be on the ebb and watched solid 6ft lines pouring in.
Anyhow, those were my observations, others had different ones.
I'm not having a go at Ben's forecast, I looked at the same data: I thought the initial pulse would be weak, weaker than forecast (it was)- it didn't show at all on Sat when it was supposed to be here in the arvo- and although the ASCAT pass looked good that there would be too much swell shadowing for the second pulse (wrong). It was strong. But also later than forecast. As late as Sunday night Ben was in the comments saying the swell had already peaked (it hadn't).
Could that outcome be improved in the future? Possibly. My point is that through experience, you add in the error bars based on past events.
I'm not sure we could feed any more accurate info into the algorithms.
"As late as Sunday night Ben was in the comments saying the swell had already peaked (it hadn't)."
Here's what I wrote. Adsi asked a question: "Most of this swell must be bypassing the NR as it still looks pretty small and average here. Can we still expect a bit of size tomorrow morning Ben?"
And I responded: "Kinda surprising as it was overhead on the Tweed. We'll be on the backside of this swell tomorrow but I wouldn't be surprised if locations that didn't perform well today, perform better tomorrow because the swell characteristics (i.e. "magic numbers") are better suited."
Were we on the backside of the swell? Not quite, we were atop an unusually drawn out peak.
But considering the Crowdy Head buoy picked up the the leading edge (17.4 seconds) at 9am on Sunday, it was a fair assumption when I commented that afternoon, that the following day would be behind the peak of the swell (long period southerly groundswells don't usually show max energy 24-36 hours after the leading edge, that's more the case in WA/SA/Vic from extremely distant sources).
Did "locations that didn't perform well today, perform better tomorrow because the swell characteristics (i.e. "magic numbers") are better suited"?
Yeah, definitely the case for the Ballina region, it seems. But the Tweed Coast was very similar, as was the Coffs region. Was the call right? Depends on your interpretation, but I reckon for adsi at least (who asked the question), it was useful information.
4-6ft at S facing magnets all day is a very different beast to solid 6ft+ Point surf in the evening after a day of mostly 3ft surf.
It was 3ft most of the day with a late pulse to 6ft+.......that is surf of several different orders of magnitude in one day.
So, no, it wasn't forecast.
Can't you appreciate that it's a timing issue?
The swell was forecast, and provided solid surf to coasts both north and south of where you are through the morning. My comments throughout the Monday confirmed shoulder high sets at the Pass around 9am, and solid 4-5ft sets on the Tweed Coast, followed up with a post-session report of very strong surf at my local around noon.
The general assumption over the years is that Ballina is one of the most reliable south swell magnets in Northern NSW, and thus 4-5ft surf on the Tweed should result in bigger surf south from Byron. That theory now appears to be somewhat questionable, as there have been many swells in recent months where Ballina has come in smaller than the Tweed and Coffs coast. Why is that the case? I don't know. I have a few theories but no way of properly testing them right now.
So, again, I reject the notion that it was a "bad miss", and that the swell "wasn't forecast". Calling 4-6ft surf anywhere in NSW is a pretty big deal - and, my notes were issued three days in advance. Anyone who had read them would not have been surprised by the presence of a large south swell (I mean, the FC Notes headline for Friday 10th April was "An extended southerly focus, powerful at times").
Timing is the issue.
Thats the whole point of it, especially at such close range.
You're fudging the shit out of it, to try and look good. Thats a bad path if you want to learn and improve. Humility, not ego is a forecasters best tool. Dying in a ditch defending forecasts that got it wrong makes no sense.
Why was it wrong? is a much more productive question to ask than trying to say 2+2=5
And Fridays non-existent swell?
Saturdays pulse that never showed up?
As for the fantasy that north of Cape Byron gets as much S swell as south of the Cape. Thats a delusional path that would quickly drain credibility for anyone foolish enough to hitch their wagon to that train.
I ain't fudging anything. Two people above have confirmed that the forecast was good from their perspective.
My comments - and indeed the whole point of the FC Notes - is to discuss the weather systems responsible in detail, to work out what generates swell, so that we all (especially me) can continue to learn.
Take a good look at this surfcam grab from Cabarita at 6:55am Easter Monday, and put a size on it (kinda hard for me to fudge surfcam shots too).
Other coasts reported equally strong surf, but for some reason the Ballina coast missed out during the morning. Same as the Gong did (relative to Southern NSW) during last weekend's south swell.
Sometimes, not all coasts get the peak of the swell, and don't also see the size trend as you'd expect 'em (especially S swells originating from below Tasmania - they don't push 'up' the coast, but swing back in from the Tasman Sea).
"Two people above have confirmed that the forecast was good from their perspective."
This'll be my last post.
From Sunday, Lostdoggy reported this: "3ft sets but a big long wait for them. Beautiful when they come but way too few and far between for the amount of people around".
The forecast said this (someone who paid for it texted it to me): The deeper parent low below Tasmania at the moment will generate a more powerful, longer period S’ly swell for Sunday. Though once again, the timing is important: it’s looking similar to Saturday with a morning arrival across the Mid North Coast and an afternoon arrival across the Northern Rivers.
Because of the remote, flukey source of this swell, and the fact that much of the fetch did its swell generating in the (partial) shadow of Tasmania, we’ll see a much more erratic response across the coast (read: less confidence for the upper end of the size estimate at many beaches, usually considered to be 'south friendly'). But, many south facing beaches should still reach somewhere around the 4-5ft range, maybe 4-6ft by the afternoon.
Well, that was wrong, the swell was there in the morning and slowly faded through the day. 3ft inconsistent sets versus 4-5ft.
On Saturday he reported this: Just checked. "Still not here on sunset.
The wind did behave though".
The forecast from only a day before said: W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait will generate a fresh S’ly swell for Saturday (3ft+ south facing beaches south of Byron). However, the timing of this swell is important - it looks like it’ll nose into the Mid North Coast early/mid morning and peak into the afternoon, but conversely, it may not show across the Northern Rivers until after lunch. So, hedge your bets on the afternoon delivering the most size. And it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south.
Wrong, it didn't show after lunch. It didn't show at all. flat versus 3ft.
Anyhow, this is going nowhere. Screenshots are misleading, they can show a peak moment that isn't reflective of whats happening generally.
I saw a 4ft set Monday morning but that was a lone wave, not a regular occurrence. By evening there were step-ladder 6 wave 6ft+ sets.
My point (Solitudes point) that the east coast is hard to forecast with any great accuracy 3 days or less out, let alone 7, especially for the refracted S swells we get remains. So much variation, it's impossible to get sizes right, let alone timing.
Those that accept that will get more and better surf.
Freeride as mentioned in previous FC notes (when you denounced Ben's call of 4' waves based on your 5 min view of D'bah cam) Easter Monday was a good 4-5' at spots north of the cape. Why is it so hard to believe that other places have performed stronger (at times) when there have been many examples of this in south swells over the past year? It is not a fantasty, it happens sometimes. Why? Not sure.
Why is it so hard to believe?
40 years of experience.
Plus, I'm on that coast (tweed) a lot.
I compare that coast to the coast south of Byron a lot, under south swells.
Very, very regularly.
The coastline south of Byron has more S swell exposure by a very large margin. I see that with my own eyes on a weekly basis.
Not saying anomalies don't occur, but they are the exception, not the rule. I know some of those exceptions and I'm not going to rat out anyones secrets here.
Different story for small E swells, Tweed coast hoovers them up.
anyway, I'm going back in the box, it was only because of the Corona Virus thing that I started paying more attention to the nexus between forecasts and crowds.
Back to my own forecasting and surfing.
Have a good day.
Completely agree Ben. Lived on the southside of one of the Southern Tweed's more exposed headlands for many years and would do regular trips down to Ballina when South swell was up, thinking Lenno's or one of the points would be good and time after time finding it not the case, and even the most exposed breaks there including the wall and Sharpes/Angels would be considerably smaller than the southside of the headland i lived at. I wondered if it was something with the bathymetry leading into this particularly exposed stretch of the Tweed Coast. I know you've done articles on it but it seems the degree of period and directions and the subtleties in the two can have a huge effect on which coast gets more swell.
Great info and it shows that bathy plays a big part especially when talking directional longer period southerly swells.
Couple weeks of dry weather and I had the same thoughts that the drought was coming back! Bureau is still talking up a wet winter, although it’s really about time we had an east coast low.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-18/wet-winter-likely-amid-speculatio...
With the BOM outlook it's a wetter winter for inland and southern regions from moisture laden north-west cloud bands originating in the Indian Ocean.
If you look closely, the coastal regions on the East Coast are expected to be about on average.
yeah, all the climactic indicators are neutral, with a good outlook.
might come too late though (La Nina)
Agree with your descriptions of wave heights and conditions over the last week FR.
Not having a go either, but I really liked the inaccuracies in the forecasts across multiple online sites, it gives so much more scope for less-than-crowded surf if you keep an eye on it.
Meant to be prime season WTF Huey!!
All quiet on the eastern front.
meanwhile the "marvelous mid" is pumping, doesnt happen very often.
I have the perfect surf forecasting system. Some of you may have a similar system...
I have a crew of blokes who I surf with regularly. Among them are a couple of standouts. They seem to miss every good surf session due to other life impacts (work, family, injury) and yet, seem to be around for the unsurfable conditions (swells to big n strong for local beaches) or when the tap turns off... My forecasting simple requires access to their schedules of life. If they're out for the early, or whenever for whatever, odds on there will be good fun surfable waves!
We just need an AI developed database to pull all the schedules of these types of people together; modern surf forecasting will be relegated like cassette tapes and video players.
PS: An overlay in the algorithm of custom surfboard resin curing peaks may help to refine the model.
Something magic about the ocean being absolutely dead flat, beautiful... for a week tops. What happened to Coral Sea swells and West winds in Autumn?