Turning on the southerly swell tap
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 15th April)
Best Days: Sat/Sun: steadily building S'ly swells all weekend - quite solid at south swell magnets (south of Byron) on Sun - easing slowly through Mon. Expect a delay in the Far North on each pulse. Generally good winds.
Recap: S’ly swells eased in size on Thursday, initially some inconsistent 3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (much smaller elsewhere) though size eased through the day. Late afternoon saw a new SE groundswell make landfall, having peaked in the 4-6ft range across Southern NSW that afternoon. The Mid North Coast saw 3ft sets late in the day, and we’ve seen slightly bigger waves today near 4ft though its coverage has been a little sporadic, favouring some coasts but not others (as is common from flukey swell sources, in this case from a deep low tucked inside the south-eastern tip of New Zealand’s South Island). SE Qld has been very small in general. N’ly quadrant winds have dominated the last few days though today saw a more general NW flow across many areas, and thus clean beach breaks.
Plenty of SE swell in Coffs Harbour Friday morning
This weekend (Apr 18 - 19)
There’s no change to the weekend forecast.
We’ve got a steady supply of building southerly swells on the cards, originating from two seperate fetches contained within one broader system, all associated with an amplifying Long Wave Trough.
A series of strong fronts are directing gale force winds across the Tasmanian region right now. W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait will generate a fresh S’ly swell for Saturday (3ft+ south facing beaches south of Byron). However, the timing of this swell is important - it looks like it’ll nose into the Mid North Coast early/mid morning and peak into the afternoon, but conversely, it may not show across the Northern Rivers until after lunch. So, hedge your bets on the afternoon delivering the most size. And it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south.
Prior to then we’ll see small residual SE swell from today. I’m not expecting much size in SE Qld on Saturday either, apart from small leftover SE swell across exposed northern ends early morning.
Conditions should be clean across most coasts with a weak pressure gradient resulting in light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes.
The deeper parent low below Tasmania at the moment will generate a more powerful, longer period S’ly swell for Sunday. Though once again, the timing is important: it’s looking similar to Saturday with a morning arrival across the Mid North Coast and an afternoon arrival across the Northern Rivers.
Because of the remote, flukey source of this swell, and the fact that much of the fetch did its swell generating in the (partial) shadow of Tasmania, we’ll see a much more erratic response across the coast (read: less confidence for the upper end of the size estimate at many beaches, usually considered to be 'south friendly'). But, many south facing beaches should still reach somewhere around the 4-5ft range, maybe 4-6ft by the afternoon. And of course, it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south, with southern ends likely to be very small indeed.
So with this swell being a little flukier than the more common southerly swells (that originate from S/SW fetches parallel to the Southern NSW coast), we need to be a little more flexible in our expectations than usual.
SE Qld will pick up more size on Sunday (than Saturday) but most locations will probably dip out. South facing beaches and exposed northern ends should see some late 3ft+ sets but elsewhere expect slow waves perhaps reaching 1-2ft (likely smaller on the Sunshine Coast).
Sunday’s conditions look similar to Saturday’s: pretty good under a weak pressure gradient, with light variable winds. This could be onshore at times (most likely in the afternoons) though it shouldn’t be too strong so conditions are likely to remain favourable.
Next week (Apr 20 onwards)
On Sunday morning, a small low is modeled to develop in the central/southern Tasman Sea, at the tail end of the fetch responsible for the weekend’s south swell. Whilst this won’t generate a major swell for the NSW coast, it should arrest the otherwise steadily easing trend, keeping south facing beaches (south of Byron) in the 3-5ft range throughout Monday before size falls away more rapidly into Tuesday.
Elsewhere, expect much smaller surf and we’ll see very small conditions throughout SE Qld, just a slow foot or maybe two across the outer points with larger 2ft to maybe 2-3ft sets at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. I’m really not confident there’ll be anything overly worthwhile north of the border.
Looking further ahead and we’ve got a period of small waves on the cards. A weak trough developing in the north-eastern Tasman Sea - which may form a closed low off NZ's north-east coast - needs to be monitored for swell potential though at this stage the fetch length and strength doesn’t look overly promising for us.
Otherwise, a series of intense fronts and their associated low pressure systems will approach Tasmania early in the week. However it appears they’ll ride a little too far north in our (acute) south swell window, and also be more zonal (i.e. west-east) in alignment than is idea.
We’ll probably see a series of S’ly swells glance the Northern NSW coast Thursday and Friday but right now they’re likely to bypass most locations and only favour south swell magnets with small surf.
That’s about it for now.. have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
Thanks Ben and co for your forecasting and reporting. Swellnet been a steady highlight of my daily routine and this has doubled down recently with COVID-19 and a world barren of good news. With days and weeks blurring while working from home your forecaster notes are markers for my week. Thanks.
Man I'd really be stoked with more than 1 day a week of good surf. There's usually one decent day, followed by lots of average af days. This is supposed to be prime time up here.
yeah, it's a weird autumn.
we've gone straight from cyclone swells to a late winter pattern with weak, mobile high pressure riding at winter lats and refracted, episodic S swells from moreorless zonal fetches from cold fronts attached to rapidly transiting low pressure.
it looks more like august than April.
still no sign of any low pressure in either the Coral Sea or Tasman sea.
still, heaps better than the last 2 autumns.
Always appreciate your input FR. Not incredible, but way better start to a year compared to the last couple. Crossing fingers for a half decent winter.
Now everyone fuck off back to work and leave the daily to the dailies.
I've come to the conclusion Huey is a fucking genius.... He's worked out how to create digital disruption and economic stimulus via mind fuckery for the crew who love to tell everyone where they surfed yesterday.
Yesterday was a prime example. I watched crew streaming like ants to a particular spot that had fired with a half dozen crew the day before... But, Huey the genius had dished up a junky swell and cross wind porridge to throw all the 'it was fantastic yesterday' crew into a deep bewilderment; They all headed for takeaway coffee and bacon n egg rolls.
Meanwhile a short drive away there was a fun little bank coping with the devil wind quite well.
For the eager crew, we too have been forced into economic stimulus. The odometer is showing a 30% increase in distance travelled so despite lower fuel prices the outflow of coin is above pre covid levels.
Why would anyone’s odometers be higher at the moment? Should be significantly lower? Maybe a bit more oil for the bike chain.........
Was thinking the same
Ah, because it's perfectly legal to travel for exercise in NSW. There's no distance or time restriction on how far you can travel for exercise in NSW.
In a car, on my own, surfing away from crowds along the coastal stretch I always surf... Pretty much fits the exact requirements of the Public Health Order.
I was just speaking to a mate who told me about a surfer from Bondi copping the thousand dollar fine after chasing waves down near Shellharbour.
I saw fuel for under a dollar a litre at Kingy the other day.
still a buck forty down here.
fucking robbery.
I don't see much to get excited about from this synoptic.
Not sure what is in the f/cast notes but I reckon 2-3ft from the Bass strait fetch and maybe 3ft+ from the parent low.
it's all zonal and fast moving.
edit: ASCAT pass looks OK but the best bit of the fetch is very zonal and in the swell shadow of Tas.
there's a reasonable tail to it so maybe 4ft from the parent low.
BP Ballina 110c for e10 so prob alright for premium.
Newrybar 106c
Broadwater 108c
The rest of ballina shire servos can get fucked.
I heard a servo in Nerang was 79.9.
I didn’t realise Kingy was in your suburb Steve?
Fuel in Brisvegas is 88 cents!!!
Provision of essential services Don.
You still doing the bread delivery gig,? Guess you get to suss out all the banks on your coastal jaunt each day?
yeah mate. it's good for that.
Last time I drove across the country the fuel here was the most expensive I saw anywhere.
More expensive than the Nullarbor.
Not bad for an area with an unemployment rate which appears to be around 90 percent going from the people loitering around the shops at the nearest town each day.
Water temp has dropped at south golden beach, felt way colder
yeah, that northerly chilled it down incredibly quickly.
actually come back up a degree or two here this morning.
Chubby clean conditions this morning.
Not worth a paddle but plenty tea bags and even more crew on a pointless surf hunt
excellent rock fishing conditions and a few small fun peaks for kids.
actually better than yesterday with the northerly cross hatching out of the picture.
New S'ly lines been showing at Coffs for the last few hours, certainly nothing amazing but the trend is good.
Very infrequent pulses of new swell on our stretch from first light... Sunrise set was good, then a few more then it went into slumber mode as lots of crew crawled over the dunes to look... Pulsed again a few times, very infrequently which kept everyone guessing... Then went as flat as a pancake with only the left over northerly bumps to satisfy a few eager weekend warriors.
I think that was leftover SE groundswell Wingy.
I haven’t left the house yet today. Doing the carer thing hardcore whilst other crew get some air.
Put on 4 kilos since the Miley Cyrus forced me back from my Indo wonderland. Those Coffs closeouts screenshots make me nauseas. Almost enough to put me off another toasted cheese sandwich......almost.
Lorikeets just took over the bird feeder again. Flock of brightly coloured thugs. Freaks me out how much they dominate through their pure aggression. Like little winged bull sharks.
Snagged a couple of occasional 2fters thismorning tweedcoast. Been having more fun on the smoothstar lately to be honest. Geez they are fun and really take your surfing to the next level.
Looking a smidge bigger now, 3ft on the sets at Coffs. Shame about the moderate southerly breeze.
Still offshore up here but swell hasn't shown up yet, hanging out it gets here before dark and winds behave.
Just checked. Still not here on sunset.
The wind did behave though.
Tiny to flat on the GC
Although i didn't do it that often, i'm really missing the chance to head south of the border to actually get some waves right now.
These conditions absolutely suck living on the Goldy.
Couldn’t agree more, fucking depressive.
yep, tiny to flat on dark.
Well I really hope the borders open again soon. Last winter was a real eye opener as to just how rubbish the surf is on the Sunshine Coast in winter. I’ll be damned if I’m gonna wait till December to surf a wave bigger than 1-2ft especially if that winter pattern is going to kickoff in April.
The south swell is slowly building. Nice lines showing at D'Bah and there's even a few small peelers at Snapper.
Though interestingly, the long period energy won't arrive until much later today - it only reached the Illawarra/Sydney/Hunter region early this morning.
3ft sets but a big long wait for them. Beautiful when they come but way too few and far between for the amount of people around.
Cops had been checking out the car parks for non locals on the Mid North Coast, so everyone is squeezing into the local B Grade and novelty spots. So took the opportunity for a rock fish and the ledges are also crawling with people. Considering there are no tourists must be a lot of people dusting off the boards and fishing gear and getting out.
Flat rock carpark disgustingly busy when I got out the water at 9am
Sharpes packed as well. Must be that many assholes up here on holidays.
Easy 3ft on the tweed coast this morning. Best surf I’ve had in a while.
Solid 3ft, occ 3-4ft sets but very well populated. Shame too as most beaches were pretty straight, so options were kinda limited. Perfect conditions though, stunningly clear water and light winds.
Crowdy Head buoy picked up the leading edge (17.4 seconds) at 9am, and the last few hours have shown a pretty strong increase in Hsig, which bodes well for an afternoon increase across most of Northern NSW.
Haven't been watching the Coffs cams for long, seen a few sets but nothing major yet, still looks ~4ft or so, maybe the odd bigger one.
OK, there's a few bigger sets. Not many though.
Most of this swell must be bypassing the NR as it still looks pretty small and average here.
Can we still expect a bit of size tomorrow morning Ben ?
Kinda surprising as it was overhead on the Tweed.
We'll be on the backside of this swell tomorrow but I wouldn't be surprised if locations that didn't perform well today, perform better tomorrow because the swell characteristics (i.e. "magic numbers") are better suited.
Yeh was the occasional 3ft wave this morning but nothing bigger really. This arvo was 2-3 ft mostly.
Fingers crossed for the early
Anyone scored this weekend?
Literally lapping at the shore.
Head high plus sets at D'Bah. Even some waist/chest lines coming through Currumbin.
Dbah is surprisingly small compared to a few spots on the tweed coast. Interesting what long period does
4ft long long lines here.....unfortunately cause its all closeouts
sleepy 3ft here for the late.
cops in the carpark chasing away people from out of the postcode and leaving warning letters on windscreens.
I was approached and asked where I lived by two of NSW's finest.
Nothing in the Public Health Order to support that statement.
Did you see the crew in blue putting those on vehicles?
the local crew in blue should have got busy plastering those on all the QLD plated cars at Blackies over the last few days
yeah I did.
seems the intent of the order is pretty clear, based on what the cops have said and what they are doing.
whether it stands up in court might depend on the beak.
I'm usually pretty skeptical in any case, but I gotta say the language used and even the logos don't look that police-y to me. Looks more like the neighbourhood has got a bit creative with their vigilantism.
Yeah, it looks like a photo-copy job.
but the cops were there putting them on when I got there.
and asked me directly where I lived.
You'd have to think they were bluffing, but we'll see.
Fair enough
What evidence did you have t provide to show who you are and where you live? Cause I don’t carry my license around with me when I go surfing!!
Has it been crowded?
yes and no.
every man, woman and their dog out at times.
other times, no-one.
Bloody crowded. Stupidly crowded.
As in, old timers walking around with their jaws hanging down a fraction.
Not helped by it being so slow today.
Funny because on Tuesday morning when it was pumping, there were a handful of guys on the outside takeoff spot.
Think I waited an hour this afternoon for a wave to go in on.
fuck me... everywhere is crowded and it's gone flat or south only spots.
this is definitely the beginning of the end.
Solid again on the Tweed this morning, easy 4ft where I was and I'd assume a little bigger at some of the regional south swell magnets. Water temp and clarity is outstanding right now!
Yeah, Ive seen some IG stories today of some spots down your way...Jeezus, looked like there was a bit of push and size for you lucky lot. Hope you got a couple mate.
Best session this year this morning for me .
local was firing , busy but consistent 3'+ kept all happy.
Whitewater lines always tell a story.
Had a quick one right there yesterday morning. Too straight and/or fat.
FRs report checks out
https://m.northernstar.com.au/news/police-fine-tourists-who-ignore-stay-...
MORE than $27,000 in fines have been issued in the Richmond Police District as surfers and beach goers from Queensland and Byron Bay continue to ignore the directives to exercise locally and not to travel to beaches outside of their local areas.
Police were out in force today checking on motorists and surfers at Pat Morton lookout in Lennox Head.
READ >> 3-year-old left in car as man breaches COVID-19 restrictions
Surfers were warned they were in breach of directives to stay home if they weren't from the local area.
"We are still seeing significant impacts on our beach carparks," Richmond Police District detective chief inspector Cameron Lindsay said.
"A lot of the people who have received infringements have been from Coolongatta, Ocean Shores and Byron Bay areas," he said.
"They seem to be coming to these areas to enjoy these lovely beaches but at this stage that is not essential travel.
"And the message is do not come to these areas at this time."
He encouraged people to stay home and to only exercise in their local area.
People too selfish or ignorant?
Got burned this morning, couldn't find a decent waves after an hour driving ended up at the local beachy and it was garbage. Might go throw my quiver off the cliffs at lennox.
You must've drove North on your search?
Ended up scoring the point this arvo, super fun. Happy to eat my words.
This morning drove south a 15/20mins, only saw one good looking spot but most of waves didn't look makeable. Probably missed the few places it was working
Intriguing - looked like this swell was gone for all money yesterday but this morning it jumped to maybe twice the size of yesterday, more consistent, more waves in the sets.
Not quite as good as Tuesday morning but close.
As far as I know, all the forecasts missed this which is fine by me - these long period straight south swells must be very hard to pick at times.
Dry hair takeoff into a 5ft set and then a 300m+ ride?
And then do it again next walk around?
Fuck yeah.
hahaha, today was the day.
still pretty as.
seemed like forecasts were a day off in picking the pulses.
like the last swell.
How'd you go?
good, I took a short little paddle. less people.
Got the quinella today.
Strapped the 7S to the bow of the Sea Wok and made for far shores . Found myself a nice bit of beachie action , anchored out the back and jumped in for a quick solo session. Was only going to do the “ Surf as habit “ three wave minimum but ended up having a nice little hour of power. I’m not looking forward to wetsuits. Boardies are so much less complicated. Less commitment required.
Then hit a local reef for a fish as the westerly picked up. Caught a feed and headed for home as the wind laid back down.
Great day.
Snapper and ??
Spotted mackerel. They call them snook around here.
Tasty. Aggressive. Attractive fish.
Like a beta Spanish Mackerel.
Of course, had a big mind blank and couldn't google it ha. Thought was maybe a Bonito at first but then those back barbs point of course to a Mackerel.
Destined for Thai fish cakes.
Chalk today up as a win Blowin.
A beer and a cuddle with your significant other will top it off.
Pretty standard day for this time of year. Fun beach break and a feed of fish.
Autumn rules.
I reckon I would have swapped your day for mine.....300 m rides !
BTW .....lots of sharks around.
LOTS !
Caught half a dozen little whalers and saw another half dozen bigger units skulking around.
whites seem to be making a comeback....getting ready for a whale of a time soon ......saw the chopper doing circles not far from where i was this morning......already on my way in before it arrived ....
Does the rounds every morning, never seen it warn though. SR 3-4ft was 2-3ft, pretty sure they just stick their head out the window.