An extended southerly focus, powerful at times
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th April)
Best Days: Sat: small, easing leftover E'ly swell at open beaches early morning (mainly SE Qld) with offshore winds: Sun: combo of strong, sizeable S'ly swells for Northern NSW, much smaller in SE Qld. Good conditions for protected spots. Mon/Tues/Wed: more strong S'ly swells for Northern NSW, great conditions. Much smaller in SE Qld.
Recap: Easterly swells have managed 2-3ft sets across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for the last few days, whilst southerly swells produced 3-4ft waves across Northern NSW's south facing beaches on Thursday, easing slowly in size today. Moderate to fresh S/SE winds on Thursday became generally light and variable today.
Snapper still pulling in a few sets this morning
This weekend (Apr 11 - 12)
The current E’ly swell in SE Qld was generated by a ridge through the northern Tasman Sea and Coral Sea, which is weakening. As such, we’ll see a slow easing trend from this source over the weekend.
Early Saturday may see a handful of 2-3ft sets at exposed beaches in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but it’ll probably be down to 1-2ft by the afternoon and conditions will be clean with freshening W/NW winds ahead of a cold front. Winds will then veer SW on Sunday morning with even smaller surf, so don’t expect much action north of the border.
Across Northern NSW, we’ll see less size from the east swell with increasing distance from the border. So, it’ll be pretty small for most of Saturday.
However, Sunday is looking quite sizeable at exposed south facing beaches.
An amplifying Long Wave Trough will push across Tasmania longitudes during Saturday, and we’ll see two swells build in size through the day.
The primary swell will be short range S’ly energy from the overnight frontal passage, and should produce 5-6ft surf at south facing beaches south of Byron by the afternoon, though it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south. Expect a reasonable lag on building wave heights in the Far North through the morning.
Underneath this shoret range energy, there’ll also be a smaller though longer period S’ly swell generated by an unrelated polar low, currently south of Tasmania, and displaying a broad region of 40-55kt winds. It’s not ideally aimed but the large fetch width should assist in a spread of southerly groundswell along the East Coast, around 3-5ft at most south facing beaches south of Byron. This will account for the potential 17-18 second swell periods across the regional wave buoys.
Winds will be moderate to fresh SW to begin with but should throttle back during the day as the front clears to the east.
As for SE Qld - surf size will be tiny to begin with on Sunday, but should build from the south through the day and late afternoon should manage 2-3ft+ sets at the outer Gold Coast points (bigger but wind affected at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches), with smaller surf across the Sunshine Coast. However, confidence is not high on the timing of the increase: we’ll have to wait for observations to show to our south, but I am doubtful for any meaningful size before lunchtime.
Next week (Apr 13 onwards)
Model guidance remains consistent for a succession of secondary fronts to push through the lower Tasman Sea on Sunday and Monday, generating strong reinforcing southerly swells for Monday, Tuesday and maybe early Wednesday.
Even better, we’ll be under the influence of a weak high pressure ridge through this period so conditions should be clean throughout with light variable winds each day. The only exception is a freshening southerly later Wednesday north from Byron under a developing ridge.
Surf size should be quite solid at south facing beaches, fluctuating between 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay. As always, expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.
SE Qld won’t pick up anywhere near as much size from this pattern. Most beaches will be very small but some outer Gold Coast points should see occasional slow 2ft to almost 2-3ft sets, with smaller surf along the Sunshine Coast. However, exposed northern ends are likely to see bigger waves, and with light winds it should be quite workable here.
Looking further ahead, and from Thursday onwards we’re looking at much smaller surf, with a series of background southerly swells likely to keep expected beaches south of Byron active with fun options. I can't see much happening in SE Qld at this stage though.
Have a great weekend, see you Monday!
Comments
I love always seeing that pic of snapper. To be honest, it looks avg. While ‘here’ today was offshore all day. How many days a yr do you get all day offshores with 3ft of swell on your local beachie? You can’t explain that to someone who doesn’t surf. Back to the point of it, keep those snapper pics flowing.
Close the border! Really this time. No more of this half baked osmosis.
Well sth of the border and snapper has no appeal
Proper autumn conditions this arvo.. live for days like this
more like a pre frontal winter nor wester.
tiny though.
Any idea when the cams will be back up on the Sunshine Coast??? 3 don’t work.
Only 2 down, not 3 (Sunshine Beach is experiencing intermittent NBN outages, which we're trying to fix - but haven't been able to source yet - however it's up for 90% of the time). A replacement camera for Kings Beach was sent to our local sparky a week ago (when it went down), and it should be swapped over in the next few days (can't do much at Easter, of course). Moffs will be back once we finalise a new location.
Warm blue water , shifty uneven peaks, blue skies , boardies , three people out.
Nothing too flash wave wise but an incredible morning none the less .
The depth of colour in the autumnal sky is crazy.
I reckon the lack of planes and polution, the indigo skies of sunset and sunrise have been super vivid. So special and crisp. Love autumn!
The crowd level in my neck of the woods (Northern SC) is psychotic. A fat outside bank 500m up from the nearest beach access that I paddled out on alone at dawn yesterday was swamped with 20+ VALs within an hour. Each of these clowns (mostly in groups of 2 - 3) walked past at least 3 identical peaks to join the circus, absolute insanity. I tried to check the same stretch yesterday afternoon - carpark full, all roads leading to it clogged with cars up and down the nature strip, 80+ people in the water, at least 100 on the beach. For context, this is a small (4 car spaces) unpatrolled residential beach access that might get 50 people along its full stretch on the busiest day of the year. 95% of those in the water are non-local and could barely get to their feet let alone turn. It seems that since surfing is currently somewhat unaffected by restrictions that everyone who has ever had so much as a passing interest is getting out in the water. If the beaches stay open past tomorrow I'll be very surprised, these muppets are killing it for our community.
You should sneak down at 3 AM and drive some fake warning signs into the sand.
That should give you a bit of room to play around in.
Same on the southern Goldie. Brazzos happily hanging about sunning themselves at Rainbow De Janero this arvo...Maybe the warnings should be in Portuguese too?
S swell kicking in according to Tweed buoy
nothing showing in the water.
blown out baby food
A couple of 4-5 ft sets here.
Umm??
When the local morning forecast report mentions a 4 hour surf when the Swellnet website banner explicitly states to 'keep your surf sessions shorter' , You know some locals also aren't following the Covid-19 regs- Houston, We have a problem !
Yeah and 1-2ft too lol, on the sniffo?
I think Coolum cam hasn’t moved for months... that was the third. Can’t see first bay.
That replacement cam is also with the sparky.
Surfers from Byron and beyond getting fined by cops at three breaks I stopped at around Lennox/Ballina this arvo. Looks like the cops have finally gotten fed up with it.
I couldn’t get a park at all three at 5pm.
Tomorrow's going to be really interesting.
Froth fest, cop fest.
"and keep your surf sessions shorter to allow others the opportunity to get wet."
-----
"I surfed for 4 hours"
-----
Nice work PridLESS you kook.
Hahaha, I think he is great value however his timing is off lately. Fuck me, that had me laughing out loud.
talk about all tip and no iceberg.
super crowded dawn patrol with single wave 3ft sets every half hour.
Easy 4-5ft on the Tweed.
taking 5 minutes to look at 2ft Dbah, I very much doubt it.
anyhow, no doubt the "surf report" will be a massive over-call which will draw even more people into what they will soon find is a half formed super inconsistent S swell on the wane.
shit, 4-6ft 7/10, that didn't disappoint for sheer BS.
For anyone who wants a real report, it's a super inconsistent 3ft at most spots.
Must be one of those mysto south swells that bypasses Ballina.
The Pass is shoulder high (impressive for a south swell):
Tweed Coast has some solid lines (though banks are certainly another issue):
And Coffs is very strong:
Most of southern NSW is holding 6ft today (as it was through yesty arvo), so for Ballina to be only 3ft today would certainly be somewhat of a regional outlier.
Single snap shots tell jack shit.
Take a look around the cams and you'll see it's an incon signal. Very incon, apart from Newy.
Once again the Yamba report is the only half accurate report for this region: clean 3-4ft S
Winds: Light WSW
Weather: fine and sunny
Rating: 5/10
Thats about what it is here. With lots and lots of people waiting around in a flat ocean for single wave 3-4ft sets every half hour.
Normally the over-calls are no biggie. But in this instance there are real world consequences to it.
Ben MCcartneys report from CW is also accurate: Mid period Southerly groundswell gradually eases, wrapping at an inconsistent 2 to 4ft sets across the more exposed spots and ranging from 1 to 3ft elsewhere depending on where you look. WIND: Early lighter WSW, SW to SSW inshore, tending light East up to 10 knots, then NE later.
I presume you're referring to the same Coastalwatch that has all of Northern NSW as 5-7ft today (see below), and specifically, says for Ballina "mid period S'ly groundswell shows plenty of push in the 5-6ft+ realm across south exposed areas, while wrapping at anywhere from 2ft to 5ft+ elsewhere" (also see below).
Also says the surf report was uploaded at 4:31am.
This is the CW regional report for tweed coast, where you are.
Mid period Southerly groundswell gradually eases, wrapping at an inconsistent 2 to 4ft sets across the more exposed spots and ranging from 1 to 3ft elsewhere depending on where you look. WIND: Early lighter WSW, SW to SSW inshore, tending light East up to 10 knots, then NE later.
Which is correct, and in line with regional observations here and down to Yamba ( true observed report)
I think you're overcalling the fuck out of it. Easy enough to do, but there should be some QC applied.
No drama normally except the overcall is a bad look during this time, because it leads to overcrowding.
Blue bird Easter Monday nothing to do with it?
There were 4 foot+ waves around today
yep, a handful.
The report was a total overcall.
It should have read : Super inconsistent 3-4ft S swell, with long waits for sets.
Not pumping 4-6ft surf .....total BS.
anyhow, Bens website, it's up to him. Overcalls are a bad look right now though, for many reasons.
Yeah I get it. There’s nothing worse than sitting out at the spot I presume your taking about when it’s 3 foot and super inco, particularly when it was thought to be 4-6 and strong.
I can’t really believe anyone is actually travelling to surf that spot from anywhere further distant than your postcode
crowds were hectic everywhere.
and to be fair, the bluebird day definitely brought out the part-timers.
but yeah, 40 people waiting half an hour for the single wave 3ft sets (ok, I saw one or two 4 footers), was a bad equation.
was much stronger last night on dark.
Just for context, the 4-6ft size call was reported for "south swell magnets. It is however a lot smaller elsewhere thanks to the swell direction, southern corners are realy small."
Anyone scored this morning? Long wait for decent waves, beautiful conditions though
Fun enough but a pretty big letdown after the forecasts.
3ft, and really slow.
Just got out of the water on the Tweed. Inconsistent sets, but five or six waves at a time, and a really intense sweep that almost put me in a really tricky situation at one point. The bigger waves were a solid 4-5ft, and there was a lot of power behind 'em. Light to moderate southerly winds, clean on the face, decent session though I've got really bad chaffing from the vest I was wearing - felt like I was paddling non-stop the whole session despite only getting half a dozen keepers.
Surfed the South side of a rip bowl with zero sweep, 100m further South they were paddling non-stop. 3ft at best here, slow and straight but a few OK ones.
3ft on the Sunny Coast? Not bad for a straight south swell!
I was about 6 kms offshore and driving up some large faces. A few decent sets getting around for sure.
I reckon their would of been about. 1000 people surfing on the beaches between burliegh and currumbin this morning.. awesome conditions, and a few low tides banks with slow 2ft south swell getting in.... lots of crew hanging on the beach too..
Surfed the local beachy after a quick look around.
It was super fun, bit inconsistent but I got about a dozen keepers.
Couldn't believe how busy it was at flat rock, disgusting. Even the beachy was pretty chokkas but people keeping reasonable distance.
Beautiful day, average waves, but the water is amazing! South Swells suck, but at least its pushing sand into the right places.
Two great surfs today . Reports of police on dune buggies at New Brighton stretch , felt like typical BluesFest weekend with maxing crowds. Loving this Autumn so far