South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 18th March)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun E'ly swell with light winds (just a risk of N'lies on the MNC Friday). Sat: decent long period S'ly swell for Northern NSW, easing Sun. 

Recap: Pumping surf across the regional points over the last two days, with 4-5ft+ sets and southerly quadrant winds (early SW in some locations, tending S’ly through SE during the day). 

Very little self-isolation going on at Snapper Rocks today

Stunning lines through Greenmount

Chunky barrels at Burleigh

This week (Mar 19 - 20)

Looks like more E’ly swell for the rest of the week, with good winds across northern regions both days but a risk of developing northerlies south from Yamba on Friday.

The Tasman Sea and our south swell window are devoid of swell generating activity right now, but the latter stages of ex-TC Gretel were quite strong over the last few days, just north and north-east of New Zealand’s North Island. 

Unfortunately the primary fetch was poorly aimed for our region, but we’ll still see a decent spread of swell energy back into our coast that should maintain 3-5ft sets at open beaches both days (smaller down the points), with a slight easing trend through Friday (probably the afternoon).

So, in comparison to the last few days, I'm expecting a little less size, but a little more power (thanks top a slightly longer swell period) but a little less consistency too (with slightly reduced options across sheltered points). Thursday and early Friday are the pick for the most size. 

Light variable winds and sea breezes are expected throughout SE Qld and Far Northern NSW both days, and the Mid North Coast will see this play out on Thursday but an approaching front from the south-west will freshen northerly winds across the Mid North Coast on Friday. Though, it’s likely to be NW early morning.

This weekend (Mar 21 - 22)

No change to the weekend outlook. 

The source of this week’s easterly swell has already begun to vacate the swell window and we’ll see a steady drop in size from Saturday (3ft+ sets) down to 2-3ft by Sunday morning and perhaps a little smaller into the afternoon. 

However, there is also a new S’ly swell on the way for Northern NSW. Model guidance still has a powerful front passing well to the south of Tasmania later tonight and Thursday, and although not perfectly aligned within our swell window, core winds are very strong and I like the storm track - it’s far enough south to allow for a good spread up along the East Coast. 

The leading edge of this new swell will push across Southern NSW overnight Friday, and it’ll fill in across most of Northern NSW’s south facing beaches on Saturday (perhaps a slight lag in the Far North). Surf size should reach 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron (sets will be a little inconsistent) but but it’ll be a lot smaller elsewhere.

Morning offshore winds are expected in most regions, but a shallow S’ly change may affect the Mid North Coast from lunchtime onwards (or thereabouts), whilst NE sea breezes are likely in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. So, aim for an early surf for the best conditions.

This south swell will ease through Sunday but it’ll be reinforced by a new S’ly swell, originating from a front passing under Tasmania on Friday (also responsible for the MNC’s S’ly wind change on Saturday). This should maintain 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron.

As for SE Qld's south swell prospects this weekend, I am doubtful that we’ll see much southerly swell north of the border but a handful of south swell magnets may pick up some 2-3ft sets late Saturday and early Sunday. Otherwise, the E’ly swell will probably be a safer bet. 

Next week (Mar 23 onwards)

Another front crossing the Tasmanian divide late Sunday will be associated with a temporarily deepening Tasman Low that looks like it’ll generate some useful S'ly swell for Monday and Tuesday, possibly up to 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, though winds look problematic from the S/SE tending E/SE as a new ridge builds along the coast.

Otherwise, small trade swells will pad out most open beaches next week. 

See you Friday!