South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th March)

Best Days: Sat AM: brief window of clean conditions north from Byron. Sat PM onwards: persistent, windy run of waves for the SE Qld points. Mon/Tues/Wed: solid SE swell (mainly for Northern NSW). Best conditions likely south from Coffs. 

Recap: Thursday was generally quite average with poor winds and a mix of building local swells and mid-range southerly swell. This morning offered a clean window of waves across a reasonable percentage of the coast as the synoptic flow went lighter N’ly, allowing for NW breezes at many spots. In addition to easing S’ly swells and small short range swells, a distant E’ly swell provided occasional 2-3ft sets at some exposed beaches. Winds freshened from the north from mid-morning onwards so the rest of the day was pretty average. 

Fun E'ly peaks at Surfers Paradise today

Highlighting the week’s swell trace from the new Tweed offshore buoy

This weekend (Mar 7 - 8)

A S’ly change is pushing across Southern NSW as we speak, and will reach the Mid North Coast overnight.

By dawn, it will have nosed as far north as about Evans Head or Ballina, and will then extend into the SE Qld region over the following hours, reaching the Sunshine Coast before lunchtime.

As such, there will be a narrow window of opportunity early Saturday for clean conditions, diminishing with increasing southerly latitude. Sunshine Coast surfers can rest easy knowing there’s a couple of sessions worth of light westerlies, but anywhere south from North Straddie will want to make the most of the dawn patrol. It’s likely everywhere south of Ballina will be wind affected from the get-go.

As for surf, in Wednesday’s notes I was expecting today’s distant E’ly swell to persist through Saturday, though the buoy trace (above) is a little concerning, as it shows the peak energy has already been and gone. Based on this data, there’s little hope for any size - but I feel we’ll get a small renewal of energy overnight that’ll just manage to keep exposed beaches flush with extremely inconsistent 2-3ft sets. 

Behind the change we’ll see building short range S’ly tending S/SE swells, possibly up into the 3-4ft+ range at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay later Saturday, settling to 3-4ft Sunday. However, Saturday will (obviously) be quite wind affected at this places picking up the most size, and elsewhere it’ll be a lot smaller. 

Sunday will see similarly wind-affected conditions across Far Northern NSW, but the pressure gradient should relax quite a bit across the Mid North Coast, allowing conditions to improve. One or two spots may even pick up an early SW breeze though exposed spots will still be quite bumpy.

As for SE Qld this weekend, this region should pick up plenty of local swell from the advancing change, though the outer points will be a little smaller in size (protected inner points will be very small). The ridge will actually strengthen north from about Byron latitudes later Saturday into Sunday, which means we’ll theoretically see a little more size across he Sunny Coast than the Gold Coast, though the same caveats apply for the points and other protected spots. 

So, late Saturday should have some 2-3ft runners across the outer points (bigger, wind affected 3-4ft surf at exposed northern ends), and Sunday’s shaping up for another foot across the Gold Coast, and possibly two across the Sunshine Coast. But, expect smaller surf running down the points. 

And for the record, Saturday’s E’ly swell will ease back completely into Sunday - not that you’d be able to see it anyway. 

So all in all, nothing amazing but there’ll be waves if you’re keen. 

Next week (Mar 9 onwards)

An anchored ridge in the Tasman Sea and a coastal trough across Central Qld will maintain fresh, gusty SE winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for much of next week. They’ll generate plenty of short range swell that should provide workable options along the region’s various points, as there’ll be a little more east in the swell direction. 

So, expect small waves across the inner points though it won’t break anything amazing. Outer points will be sizeable - hovering between 3ft and (very occasionally) 5ft for most of the week - but there’ll be a fair degree of wobble at most breaks.

Wind strengths and surf size will ease/decrease as you head south from about Byron. And unfortunately (or fortunately, for a small stretch of the region where winds may become variable for a period), there’s a quality SE groundswell on the way. 

A trough off the Southern NSW Coast today is actually the remnants of ex-TC Esther. Although it will contribute an average mix of southerly swells across the East Coast this weekend, the trough is expected to redevelop into an impressive Tasman Low later Saturday, near the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island (see below). This is a decent upgrade from what Wednesday’s models were estimating.

This new cut-off low (are we still allowed to refer to its reincarnation as ex-TC Esther? I don’t know) is expected to reach a peak in intensity on Sunday morning, and then retrograde slowly westwards, back towards Australian longitudes, at strength, holding into Monday before rotating clockwise out of our swell window during Monday and then abating from Tuesday.

It looks like a fantastic low pressure system in one of my favourite swell windows for Southern NSW, and will also be ideally aligned for Northern NSW too. Even SE Qld will see some of the swell generated by this low, but the presence of wobbly local windswell will knock out the quality.

Anyway, the resulting SE groundswell will step-ladder upwards incrementally in size through Monday with solid 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (there may be a lag in the north though). Anywhere not open to the south will be smaller, of course.

The main energy is however expected to reach the Southern NSW overnight on Monday and will peak into Tuesday across all coasts, with the direction firmly around to the SE by this time. Most south facing stretches south of Byron should push the 4-6ft mark and I wouldn’t be surprised if the longer swell periods draw out nicely across a a bunch of exposed, reliable bombies, with occasional bigger bombs (they’ll be the exception rather than the rule though). A steady drop in size is then expected from Wednesday.

Local conditions look to be wind affected north from about Coffs or Yamba throughout this period, but the Mid North Coast should see mainly light variable winds. So, if you want to capitalise on this groundswell, aim the surf truck to the south (Southern NSW is looking great too). 

The rest of the week will see a mix of rapidly easing SE swell and continuation of steady trade swell from a modest, persistent ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea. Small long period S’ly swells will glance the Northern NSW coast next week from distant polar lows but no major size is expected at this stage. 

Long term model runs have a bevy of exciting developments in the Tasman Sea and Coral Sea, though they are a long way away and therefore aren’t worth getting too specific about right now.. but it is certainly worth pencilling in this time period as there's a heck of a lot of quality surf potential. It is autumn, after all.

Should you be freeing up the diary? Hell, yes.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!