South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st January)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: early windows of light winds in SE Qld with small peaky beachies. Nothing amazing. Mon: light winds in Northern NSW (best early on the MNC) and a small mix of swells. Tues: S'ly change extending across the coast, late kick in S/SE swell. Best on Wed with fresh SE winds, ideal for most outer points. Thurs onwards: extended period of decent E'ly thru' E/NE swell with generally OK winds. 

Recap: A small S’ly swell provided 2ft+ sets to south facing beaches south of Byron on Thursday though it was a little inconsistent. Elsewhere, wave heights were very small, and conditions were clean for the most of the day under a light variable breeze. Today has seen the S’ly swell ease back, and a small distant E’ly swell come in at the bottom end of forecast expectations with very occasional 2ft sets at exposed beaches. Early light winds are now around to the NE. 

Small S'ly swell in Coffs Thursday

Small E'ly swell at Burleigh today

This weekend (Feb 1 - 2)

The weekend looks a little ordinary, but there will be waves here and there, mainly in SE Qld. 

The current E’ly swell isn’t anything to write home about, and won’t make much of a dent in our surf prospects. However, a redeveloping trade flow south of New Caledonia is generating some fresh E’ly energy and this will build slowly through Saturday towards a peak on Sunday. 

No major size is expected, and we’ll see the upper end of the forecast range across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with smaller surf as you head south from Ballina. Expect inconsistent 2ft sets on Saturday to build to 2-3ft on Sunday north from Ballina, with smaller surf reaching 1-2ft elsewhere. 

The main problem this weekend will be freshening N’ly winds. They’ll impact the Mid North Coast for almost the entire time (save a few windows early each day where it’ll be lighter) but SE Qld and Far Northern NSW (down to Byron or Ballina) will see less wind strength, and the mornings - in particular Saturday - should see light winds, possibly NW. 

So, keep your expectations low and aim for the early session, either at exposed beaches in the north or sheltered northern corners in the south.

Next week (Feb 3 onwards)

N’ly winds will persist across some coasts into Monday, though a weakening trough approaching from the south will bring about a period of light variable winds ahead of it, affecting the Mid North Coast during the morning, and Far Northern NSW by lunchtime. 

There is however a chance that the N’ly flow may become re-established into the afternoon as a stronger S’ly change pushes up behind it, reaching the Mid North Coast overnight. 

As such, Monday looks a little average with a small mix of easing swells and tricky winds. Early morning looks to offer the best options, probably in Northern NSW.

The outlook beyond this remains very dynamic. 

Tuesday’s S’ly change is expected to be in the vicinity of Yamba around dawn and will push up to the border by mid-late morning (with light variable winds ahead of it). A strong S/SE fetch trailing behind will generate a sizeable short range swell though local winds will render exposed breaks very bumpy, and you’ll have to tuck in behind a sheltered point for the cleanest conditions. 

The timing of this change and the associated swell is a little knife-edge for SE Qld’s outer point. At this stage there’s certainly a chance for a late pulse from early/mid-afternoon onwards, though any delays in the model output could push this back to just being a Wednesday event. 

Anyway, the change will stall as a trough across SE Qld into Wednesday, driving fresh SE winds across most coasts and building surf size to 3ft+ across the outer points (smaller at sheltered points) with bumpy 3-5ft waves across Northern NSW. There should be enough east in the swell direction here to favour the Northern NSW points with small surf.

We’ve then got quite a few swell sources for the rest of the week. Rebuilding trades through the Coral Sea will contribute ~3ft of E/NE swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for the rest of the week, becoming bigger near 4ft+ by the following weekend as the fetch muscles up.

The trough off SE Qld will slowly move south and intensify, likely forming a closed low off Southern NSW by the end of the week, and generating a secondary E/NE thru’ NE swell for Northern NSW (for our region, biggest along the Lower Mid North Coast). 

It’s still early days, but I’m holding firm for my expectations of a peak in the 6ft, maybe 6-8ft range at the height of the event somewhere along the East Coast - though this now looks more likely to be south from Seal Rocks - which means decreasing wave heights with increasing northerly latitude. 

Regardless, we’re looking at an extended run of punchy surf for all coasts, and local winds look like they’ll cooperate too - with no sign of any incessant northerly pattern until the following weekend (and early indications are that won’t be too strong either). So, most of next week’s E’ly thru’ NE swells should be quite workable.

The long term outlook beyond this looks great with sustained trades across the Northern Tasman Sea expected to supply moderate or bigger E’ly swells through the rest of that week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!