Plenty of swell ahead for all coasts
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th January)
Best Days: Strong S'ly swell Tues across Northern NSW, though inconsistent and easing into the afternoon. Small mix of swells elsewhere, ahead of a long spell of E'ly energy, including a cyclone swell for next week.
Recap: Small trade swells built across SE Qld and Northern NSW over the weekend. Saturday was pretty slow and lacklustre with N’ly winds across SE Qld and developing S'ly winds across the Mid North Coast (and eventually the Northern Rivers late), but Sunday was more fruitful with S'ly winds and a combo of swells building to 2-3ft across most locations during the day (including the southern Gold Coast points), with bigger though wind affected waves south from Byron. Today’s been a mixed bag. A new long period S’ly swell delivered a peak in size around 6ft across Southern NSW, but I haven’t seen anything bigger than 3ft at Coffs Harbour’s seemingly reliable south swell magnets. In fact, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts managed 2-3ft sets of trade swell today, and there’ve even been some 3-4ft sets across the Tweed Coast today. Long period energy (~20 seconds) was detected at the Tweed buoy from lunchtime onwards but we’re currently well short of size expectations out of the south.
This week (Jan 14 - 17)
It’s hard to have confidence where we are with the current southerly swell cycle. And this can affect the short term outlook quite a bit.
Based on Southern NSW buoy data, wave heights (and surf size) have eased quite a bit since a mid-morning peak, so ordinarily it’d be assumed that this swell delivered a much briefer peak than expected, and we’d correspondingly lower estimated for Tuesday, noting that there’s a time delay for arrival across Northern NSW (so, the period of 6ft sets across Sydney around 7am should have been into Coffs some time around 3pm, given the ~16 second swell periods). A later arrival is calculated for Far Northern NSW, of course.
However, we’ve been getting regular reports from the NSW South Coast and also East Coast Tasmania - and they’re still seeing quite solid surf this afternoon. This suggests that there’s still some energy left in the tank. And, the Sydney buoys have pulsed a little in the last few hours too. So this give hope that perhaps the first phase of swell was simply poorly aligned for our region, and there’s better energy to come.
But do however have ten hours of darkness to consider before sunrise Tuesday arrives, and with an inevitable downwards trend expected at some point on Tuesday, we need to be careful not to over-steer.
So, taking a deep breath: on Tuesday I think we’ll see inconsistent sets between 4ft and maybe 6ft across reliable south facing beaches south of Byron.
Elsewhere, expect smaller surf. This includes SE Qld, where we’ll see similar levels of diffracted S’ly swell and small trade swell offering 2-3ft waves across most of the open beaches and outer points (smaller running down the inner points). Exposed northern ends should see occasional larger sets though.
There’ll also be a secondary E’ly swell in the water across the Mid North Coast and southern parts of the Northern Rivers, generated by a modest fetch at the bottom of a broad surface trough lying across the western Tasman Sea. This should produce fun waves around the 3ft mark at exposed beaches in the morning, though this swell will be easing during the day.
As for conditions, model guidance has an existing ridge across the SE Qld coast easing overnight, and winds becoming light in most locations. The only location that is probably at the most risk of NOT seeing favourable light winds (or at least a period of early sou’westers) is the Sunshine Coast. Otherwise I reckon we’re in for reasonably good conditions on Tuesday.
Wednesday will then see a slack period (light winds and sea breezes across most coasts) everywhere, before a Tasman high swings to the wind to the NE for the rest of the week, remaining light to perhaps moderate across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but becoming moderate to fresh N/NE across the Mid North Coast. Thursday looks to be the windiest day of the two.
As for surf, we’ll see easing S’ly swells through Wednesday (early 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron, much smaller elsewhere, easing by a foot or two during the day) but more importantly, a ridge of high pressure will maintain 3ft+ of peaky trade swell across most northern coasts from Wednesday through Friday, a little smaller across the Mid North Coast. It’ll be a little sluggish on the full tides and there’ll be slow periods at times, but most locations should have waves each day.
One last source (that probably won’t produce anything rideable, but is worth mentioning anyway) - a deep, poorly aligned polar low well below SA right now may generate some small flukey S'ly swells at south swell magnets south of Byron later Wed/Thurs but no major size is expected (perhaps the odd 2ft set if we’re lucky).
This weekend (Jan 18 - 19)
Persistent local troughiness will maintain generally light variable winds across all coasts for the weekend though there is risk of a northerly incursion from time to time. But on the balance conditions look reasonably OK for surfing. There’ll certainly be a period of lighter winds between Thursday, and an expected resumption in synoptic northerlies due around Monday.
As for surf, we have only one swell source on the cards, and it’s looking very promising for next week - but the weekend may experience a low point between energies.
Our trade swell for this week will have been generated by a broad fetch currently sitting below New Caledonia. Later this week, an approaching Tropical Cyclone near Fiji will broaden a second ridge to the north-east of New Zealand, and the ridge below New Caledonia will weaken. Swell energy from the new ridge is expected early next week, but the weekend is at risk of falling wave heights as the first swell eases and we await the arrival of the new energy.
At this stage I’d be surprised if size dropped below 2ft+ at most open beaches, so with reasonably good conditions for the most part there’ll be fun beachies on offer.
Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.
Next week (Jan 20 onwards)
A large tropical cyclone is expected to develop north of Fiji over the coming days (it’s current tagged by JTWC as INVEST 93P) and the models have moved around on its future developments since Fridays notes were issued.
We’re now looking at a southward track to the east of Fiji (instead of the west), and this TC is now expected to become much broader and stronger, though will move a little faster through the swell window and eventually take up residence to the east of New Zealand, inside our swell shadow. For the record, we're looking at some pretty big waves across the NZ North and East Coast next week, if you're that way inclined.
Monday will see the first energy from this cyclone across across the East Coast, and I think there’s potential for a peak in size around Tuesday or maybe even Wednesday between 4-6ft at exposed spots. However, there’s still not a lot of confidence in the way this cyclone is likely to develop, and at the moment the strongest winds (which could otherwise be worth another two or three feet) are modelled to be aimed away from our region, both up into Fiji/Vanuatu and also south towards New Zealand's East Coast (see below).
So, let’s keep a close eye on things as there’s a lot of potential in the long term charts. As a minimum, we’re looking at a whole week of useful, underlying trade swell around 3ft+ but let’s hope there’s a few bigger days in the mix as well.
As for conditions, the latest guidance suggests N’ly winds, but it’s too far out to be confident in this either. So, don’t write it off just yet.
See you Wednesday!
Comments
Behind the rock looking alright!
Fck me that pic of the Pass is a fcking outright joke!!! Who the fck continues to paddle out when they see it like that?
Relentless salesmanship.
What about the shot of beyond dogshit snapper with the call “ behind the rock , sanapper , looking alright “.
Mate , it’s the fucken Gold Coast . If it was even remotely alright there’d be 100 people out there. But there’s not. It’s empty cause it’s beyond shit.
Seriously, that’s some Coastalwatch level misrepresentation.
If it’s shit - which due to the nature of surfing is quite frequently- just acknowledge it. To act otherwise is to diminish the respectability of your surf calling.
A lot at stake there. Don’t be jeopardising your call for the lowest common denominator.
On a scale of one to ten, 'alright' is about a three and a half, maybe four. Slightly better than 'not bad', not quite as good as 'okay'.
On the other hand, 'beyond dogshit' is a one, or less.
I'd upload a photo as an example, but I don't tend to save 'em when it's that bad.
Snapper looked perfectly fine this afternoon. Not amazing, but not terrible either.
Really not quite sure why you're so angry.
I get that a lot on here .
I’m not angry. Amusingly perplexed maybe , but not angry . I don’t really give a fuck how you describe the waves.
Perhaps it’s the swearing ? The forthright language ?
I routinely get referred to as angry or aggressive when really I’m just commenting in my usual voice. It might be “ colourful “ but it’s not angry. I mightn’t indulge dickheads , but it’s not particularly aggressive in person.
Something for me to work on ?
No ....fuck ya’s.
And seriously mate , if you’re calling this ribbed , windswell dogshit alright AKA 4/10 AKA almost halfway to absolute perfection, then it’s really time to go surf a proper wave somewhere.
There’s no way that shit is anything beyond a 1.5 max. Even for the location. Snapper gets perfect and that ain’t almost halfway perfect.
Let alone comparing it to this which is about an 8.5 due to size and the fact that it’s running more than it is throaty...
Given the fact that there is a semi-clean to clean rideable wave in the chest-high region, that the crowds are relatively low for this spot, and that there is a chance at pulling into a small but sucky cover up behind the rock, I would definitely consider this at "alright".
I would consider "dogshit" as 1 foot windswell in a 30 knot northeaster.
I think your scale may need calibration champ.
If i see a wave peeling on a sandbank...it looks alright to me. The rest is relative.
If that doesn’t look ok to you, and a bit of fun... then maybe you need to take up another sport.
To quote Mick Dundee...” Sure , you can live on it ..... but it tastes like shit.”
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve surfed way worse waves than that with a smile on my face and I will again. But it ain’t a 4/10.
Never was, never will be.
Don’t think I’m making a big deal , just a few key strokes of off handed comment.
If that’s a 4/10 then I’m an 8/10 handsome.
Don't sell yourself short Blowin. By your profile pic, you're a 9/10 good lookin rooster.
stop reading the surf reports and just go and surf. Less time on the keyboard even....
People with the right board and a good attitude. You may still own one of those if look hard enough in the back shed.
“Late Monday sets at Snapper.”
Backwashy , ribbed , crossed up dogshit which is so infrequent that three dudes caught the same wave.
That photo was uploaded to use as a measure of the size of the swell.
Not because it was a masterpiece of photography, or because it was in any way a reflection of an epic session.
'alright' may be a 3.5-4 but 'alright!' feels more 5... or 2 Hawaiian.
Geez I'm glad I read through those comments
Glad I held my nerve with yesterday's forecast... compare the above Tweed spectral buoy data to now (below)... what a jump! Tp now around 16 seconds.
Some great waves at Snapper too.. check the overlapping swell trains.
Coffs looking very tasty too.
Solid 3-5ft on the Tweed Coast this morning, with a mix of swells creating interesting double-ups and overlapping lines. Based on the strength of the swell here, there'd have to be 5-6ft sets south from Byron. Haven't seen much more than 4ft+ on the Coffs cam yet though.
4ft max ballina.
2ft at the points.
When I did the rounds 6.30am and 9.30am
Interesting. Last 12 months seems to have thrown a lot of pre-existing assumptions out of the window, i.e. Ballina is one of the East Coast's best south swell magnets. There's been plenty of times when it's reportedly been bigger on the Tweed than south of Byron.
Late arvo was pumping, btw.
I'll second that, although right on dusk it seemed to drop significantly.
not really.
couple of times, but it's more a question of timing.
swell kicked pretty hard here yesterday.
by and large, south of Byron is pretty much guaranteed to be bigger on a S swell than north of the Cape.
Ben’s new forecast template to periodically appease Swellnet’s aging, but ever vigilant, clientele:
Definitely maybe waves around this week.
Somewhere between 1 and 6 ft, depending on how many times you’ve been to Indo over the last 30 years.
Lineups will be busy with kooks on account of all the days ending in y this week. Man it must have been uncrowded in the 80’s. Anyone got any stories?
Wind will be light wsw in the mornings, unless you surfed Kirra with Rabbit in the 70’s, in which case it’s already start puffing se, predicted to increase.
Ha! Genius Sm
Hahaha spot on Schreiksjdbdsdkd :)
Not complaining, just observing.
Looks to have muscled up a bit now with the tide but killed by the wind.
The joys of care work, drive around checking the banks all day.
Are you a professional carer , LD ?
Well, I get paid, but it’s just a here and there job.
I am a professional spot checker though.
Check every spot over the course of 2.5 hours before paddling out at the first one as the onshore wind puffs up.
Ghost arrive Blowin...fusion plugs as ordered ?
The points need a separate score to the beachies. Today was 4/10 for beachies and 3/10 for points in general and on average. The majority of beachie banks rarely score a 6 and hardly never higher than 7. The points score 3/10 most of the year and higher than 8 maybe a handful of times of a year.
If you're a kook and don't mind crap crowded waves then sure go ahead and add a few more points to the above and put your mind in that happy place.
For the rest of us who expect more, well all we can do is smoke a pipe and daydream of surfing somewhere else. This is the hard reality of where we live.
What's the rationale in your mind then of scoring being out of 10? Shouldn't it be out of 8? Or couldn't it have a 1.25 multiplier on your scale so everything is boosted slightly so we have an out of 10 reading for the sake of clarity and consistency with more standard forms of measurement?
Fun, clean though somewhat full, shoulder high waves at a cunji bottom Sunny Coast point this morning. Every 10-15 mins a much straighter and more powerful set would roll through, pushing 3ft at biggest. Thinking this must have been that strong south swell. Interesting to note it made landfall up this way.
IMO, you come across as a dickhead yourself blowin, no matter which way you want to describe it or pass it off.. might be best to actually listen to the people who actually come into contact with you when they mention your aggressiveness, but then again, you do you. For what it's worth, I don't believe for a second you would have bitched about how shit that snapper wave was if you were on it. Instead you decided to ridicule someone else's objective opinion on one frame and turn it into a personal credibility attack? On wave that rolled through at 536pm on a Monday where alot of people are back at work for the first time this year, hence the small crowd you so speak of. Clearly you do give a fuck, and it is a big deal to you about how swellnet describe waves as why else would you post all these comments and some YouTube video? You're contradictions are glaring mate.
agreed
Pumping back beaches this arvo
Sets pushing 6 foot at times, really fun and there were some great waves to be had.
Greenmount has been 1-2ft full puss with no joke 400 people out from 6am-7pm for the past 3 days. Wtf is wrong with people. Atleast the beachies have had something... Snapper fills up after 5 metres into full puss with 5 logs dropping in on every wave. Goldy has always been crowded but its now at the point you need to surf it at 4am or 7pm or its not even worth it. Pretty sad.
The Sunny Coast's been a let down so far (quell surprise)
Yamba looking pretty fun this morning.
How dare you call this fun Ben!!
Sure , it might be fun . It’s still a crumbling wave which dies into a gutter after 20 metres.
And you can look at that a couple of different ways : You can remain positive and surf the rolling slop with a smile on your face. Go home stoked on your warm water , solo session where you did a couple of fat shouldered cuties .
Or
You can say- I have seriously had a gut full of this uninspiring shit and I’m going somewhere else for a while .
Option two for me.
Option 1 for me most of the time. Keeps me in the water, fit and more appreciative of the good uncrowded days around here.
I’m honestly jealous of your positive attitude. But I’m sick of surfing being a case of 20 GREAT days a year ...in a good year .
Which is purely a matter of geography and personal circumstance.
Anyway , I’ll take my attitude elsewhere. If crew are stoked to be getting wet regardless then good luck to them.
I get it, I do.
Due to life's commitments and circumstances I've just grown content with 'less' with regards to surf.
Of course I'd love to be surfing 4-6' reef breaks most of the time. Maybe I'd think differently if I'd grown up surfing premium waves for good stretches at a time. But I haven't..............
The best waves in my region are usually packed to the rim and I've got past the point where I care about surfing the BEST waves.
Seeing vids like that recent D'bah one make me cringe, I don't know how people can sit next to 40 others, I guess different motivations.
As such I generally try to zig when others are zagging. Have my quiet little fickle spots that are pretty specific with their combo of conditions and still get away for the odd trip to better waves.
For me there's just about nothing better than surfing a shallow, head-overhead high beachies with hardly a soul around. Those days do still happen and when they do I'm bloody wrapped.
Option1 for me too, even though I grew up surfing one of the world's best waves, surfing it fairly uncrowded.
I'm not claiming to be a saint and that I don't get frustrated, but man I can't live with a shitty attitude towards something I love this much.
Yep...crowds ruin everything. Surfing uncrowded waves is non negotiable.
In case you’re wondering where my attitude comes from ...I’ve basically been a gypsy for almost 25 years, until relatively recently when I’ve had my wings clipped in order to act as carer for a fella cause his other relatives are too useless to get it done. (Heh....apparently being a professional welfare recipient doesn’t leave enough hours in the day to take care of a dude living next door !)
So now I’m in an area which is beautiful and can have good waves - sometimes incredible waves - but it’s mostly the waves as shown above.
Which was cool when I used to just visit occasionally and it was cool for a while when I first got here , but now I’ve totally lost interest. Honestly, for me it’s now the surfing version of an exercise bike.....gets the blood flowing and sort of simulates the real thing.
Anyway....enough bleeding heart stuff. Crew have got it waaay worse than some bastard who is whining about surf conditions, but if there’s one thing I’ve learnt from watching a once strong waterman deteriorate pitifully before his time , it’s that no one has very long on this planet to do what they love. Particularly when he’s telling you that he wishes he’d surfed more when he was able....which was already basically everyday.
I love good waves and I want to be surfing the best waves that my skill will allow whilst I’m able . I’m here on a mercy mission but it’s taking its toll.
Option 2 for me, no doubt.
Over this shit Geography and crowds
Bad surf/lack of waves can do funny things to a man. Hang in there mate.
ANd look at the bushes in that pic from yamba. No evidence of fires there. Its all bullshit hyperbowl first in the media and now swellnet.
You can't bake your cake and eat it too so stop pretending there's light in the tunnel.
What region you in VB ?
Me? Wagga. I usually chase the five o'clock wave on the bidgee.
I'd tell you it's fun but I don't want to get yelled at ;-)
Yay someone that lives further west than me :-)
I had a smile from ear to ear at my local point break yesterday. Surfed just after the 2.1m high tide which changes the wave considerably. Let everyone sit on the outside rock while I surfed the inside by myself. Got so many hollow runners. The crowd left (4 guys left in the water), I moved to the outside rock and it jumped to 3 ft sets with at least 3-4 waves in each set. Couldn't believe my luck and just stoked to be able :)
Models have taken the forecast a peg back :(
Option 2 for sure.
Over this shit Geography and crowded seas
I understand all your negativity but I fail to get my head around why you'd want to share it on the internet.
I try to not whinge in real life.
The benefit of Internet semi-anonymity is that I get to vent my spleen without making life any worse for the crew around me who are flat out dealing with hardship a bit more harrowing than endless sloppy beach breaks.
The best bit about internet whinging is that you aren’t forced to read it either.
I understand Ben not being stoked to have the happy happy joy joy vibe he’s selling undermined, when I say that a cross shore ,rip strewn beachie doesn’t really look that appealing, but he’s a big boy and I’m sure he doesn’t actually give a fuck.