South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th November)

Best Days: Thurs: light morning winds, early peak in S'ly swell across Northern NSW (much smaller in SE Qld). Sun: light morning winds, mainly in Northern NSW (though should be briefly NW in SE Qld) with a small mix of peaky swells. Mon: chance for a building peaky N'ly windswell and a late NW wind change. Small E'ly swell underneath too. Tues onwards: plenty of S'ly swell for Northern NSW all week.

Recap: Tuesday saw northerly winds and poor surfing opportunities across most coasts, but today delivered improving conditions with a southerly change pushing across Northern NSW overnight, reaching the border early/mid morning and providing small clean waves across the southern Gold Coast points. Interestingly, the change reached Coolangatta around 6:30am and the Seaway at 8am, but the Sunshine Coast (down to the Spitfire Channel, off Bribie Island) is still seeing NE winds. Even Moreton Island has only slowly veered from overnight N/NW winds around to the E/NE in the last few hours. Today’s waves consisted of some peaky, easing N’ly windswell and distant E’ly swell, with inconsistent sets around 2ft+ at exposed beaches. A S’ly swell is now building across Northern NSW. 

Fun small waves at the Superbank this afternoon

This week (Nov 28 - 29)

The parent low to this morning’s S’ly change was quite strong, and has produced solid 4ft+ surf across Southern NSW today. This swell will push across Northern NSW overnight and then begin to steadily ease back, so you’ll need to make the most of the early session for the most size. 

Winds are expected to be light early, and dawn should see occasional 3-4ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron Bay, though it’ll ease to 2-3ft by lunchtime and may be even smaller by the end of the day. 

Elsewhere, expect even smaller surf, including SE Qld where we’ll see just minor residual energy from the N and E up to 1.5ft at exposed beaches. South swell magnets and exposed northern ends north of the border may pick up the odd 2ft+ set out of the south early morning, but don't expect it to last long. Freshening NE sea breezes are expected from late morning onwards, so make sure you get wet early. 

Friday looks pretty ordinary with small, weak leftovers across all coasts, with N/NE winds freshening during the day (possibly light early morning). 

Model guidance is still suggesting some small distant E’ly swell (from the low NE of New Zealand, that provided some of today’s small E’ly swell) with surfable opportunities across exposed beaches north of Ballina, but I’m not confident that there’ll be enough size to bother with - maybe the odd two footer if you’re very lucky. With the freshening N/NE wind, it’s really not worth worrying about. 

Also, the Mid North Coast may pick up some small stray S’ly sets from a poorly aligned front below Tasmania today, but I’ll be surprised if we see much more than a stray 2ft+ set at a handful of south swell magnets, very late in the day. 

This weekend (Nov 30 - Dec 1)

A troughy pattern to our south will result in mainly northerly winds this weekend - though the Mid North Coast and possibly Northern Rivers should see a brief respite early Sunday, with variable winds ahead of a redeveloping N’ly after lunch (a S’ly change will push across the Southern NSW coast on Saturday, but it’ll probably peter out around Seal Rocks).

As for surf, there’s not much to get excited about. We’ll see small residual swells from a couple of sources - Friday’s small late pulse of S’ly swell may linger across Northern NSW early Saturday before easing during he day, we’ll pick up some small N’ly windswell all weekend from the local fetch, and the existing sub-tropical low NE of New Zealand will slowly become a little more favourably oriented over the coming days and should provide a couple of feet of peaky surf for exposed beaches both days.

As such, give Saturday a wide berth at this stage (outside chance for early N/NW winds, otherwise generally fresh N’ly), whilst Saturday has some potential with light varibale winds south from the border. Even SE Qld should pick up a morning norwester before the N’ly resumes at strength after lunch. 

Next week (Dec 2 onwards)

The broad though modest-strength sub-tropical low developing well NE of New Zealand over the coming days should maintain a small undercurrent of E’ly swell early-mid next week. It’ll be slow and inconsistent, but every now and then exposed beaches should see a set wave stand up somewhere in the 2ft+ range. It won’t be worth working around though (note: the models don’t really like this swell either, so it’s not showing on the forecast graphs).

Otherwise, as mentioned on Monday, an amplifying Long Wave Trough across SE Australian longitudes from about Sunday onwards will drive powerful fronts into Victoria and Tasmania through the early to middle part of next week. 

Current expectations are that the storm track may end up residing just on the unfavourable side of the Tasmanian divide - i.e. just outside of our swell window (see chart below) - and this has reduced next week’s southerly swell potential quite considerably.

At the moment we're looking at one or two peaks in size between Tuesday afternoon and Saturday that could reach 3-4ft at south facing beaches south of Byron - however if the LWT ends up sliding a little further east (i.e. better positioned in the Tasman Sea) then we can double, or possibly almost triple these estimates. It’s expected to be a broad, powerful, slow moving pattern that will deliver a sustained period of very large S’ly swell for some coasts - but at this stage it looks like they’ll mainly be located west of Wilsons Promontory.

Anyway, it’s quite an exciting weather pattern to be watching, so let’s take a closer look on Friday to hone in on the specifics. 

Elsewhere, and freshening N’ly winds ahead of this amplifying LWT on Monday should kick up some small useful N’ly windswell for some regions (i.e. southern Gold, Tweed Coasts, Northern Rivers perhaps). Although local winds look to be from the same direction, a W’ly change is likely at some point on Monday afternoon. So, it’s worth pencilling in late Monday for some fun peaky waves at open beaches. 

More on this in Friday’s update.