South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 25th November)

Best Days: Wed: brief window of light winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, and a small mix of peaky beachies. Thurs: fun, early peak in S'ly swell, biggest in Northern NSW (small in SE Qld) with light morning winds. 

Recap: Most of Northern NSW has been pretty small over the last few days, with mainly N’ly winds. SE Qld picked up a small trade swell with 2ft+ surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, and 2-3ft sets on the Sunshine Coast. Winds were a little lighter but still not from a favourable direction. Size has eased slowly today. 

Although outside of these FC notes, Agnes Water picked up some small trade swell today

This week (Nov 26 - 29)

Strengthening northerly winds are expected on Tuesday, a littler lighter in SE Qld compared to Northern NSW but still enough to cause problems - especially without any notable surf. Most locations will pick up some small N’ly windswell (biggest on the Mid North Coast) but it’s really not worth getting excited about. 

A vigorous cold front will push up the Southern NSW coast on Tuesday, reaching the Mid North Coast before dawn Wednesday and extending through to Northern NSW by mid-morning.

Overnight N’ly winds in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should swing NW, and just prior to the S'ly change we may see a W’ly through SW flow. 

The S’ly change will be the dominant feature on Wednesday, but it’s worth mentioning that we may see a small E’ly swell in the water across SE Qld, from a low that spun up just NE of New Zealand over the weekend. It wasn’t very strong and wasn’t very well aligned inside the swlel window either, but some exposed beaches north from Byron may pick up very inconsistent 2ft sets early Wednesday morning (it's expected to arrive late Tuesday, but local winds wil be poor at tis time). Add this in with some peaky N’ly windswell and an early favourable wind shift, and there is some merit in assessing the early session in SE Qld.

Behind the change, we’ll see building S’ly windswells across exposed coasts though no major size or quality is expected at first - not enough to really get the protected southern points up and happening to any notable degree, anyway. South swell magnets south of Byron should see 3ft+ sets by late afternoon, but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. Expect 1-2ft surf across SE Qld all day from a variety of sources. 

For my money, Thursday morning is probably the pick of the working week (and the entire forecast period, for that matter).

We’ll see early light winds and clean conditions across most coasts, and an early peak in S’ly groundswell originating from the primary front/low associated with Wednesday’s change (generating southerly swell much further south - see chart below). South facing beaches south of Byron should see early 3-4ft sets easing to 2-3ft by lunchtime, with much smaller surf elsewhere, and north of the border there really won’t be much size away from exposed northern ends and south facing beaches (which may see early 2ft+ sets). Get in early before the sea breeze crops up from the NE late morning onwards. 

As for Friday, it generally looks like a write off at this stage with freshening N'ly winds and small leftover swells. Model guidance does suggest some small mid-range E’ly swell will linger about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW - from the latter stages of the low NE of New Zealand, responsible for our minor Tues/Wed swell - but this stage the source looks to be even more off-axis, so I’m not confident of much size across our coasts. Had the outlook for local winds been better, I'd pay a little more attention but it’s probably not worth the hassle. Let’s take another pass on Wednesday.

This weekend (Nov 30 - Dec 1)

Looks like a pretty lacklustre weekend in the surf department at this stage, with northerlies expected to freshen across SE Qld both days. We may see a slight reprieve on Sunday across the Mid North Coast (thanks to a trough off the Southern NSW coast) but Saturday looks equally craptacular as its northern counterparts. 

Not that the wind outlook matters much anyway, when there’s just no surf to bother with. Wave heights will remain small and only suitable for the swell magnets - all of which will probably be blown out by poor local winds. 

There is one source to keep a close eye on - the poorly aligned trough/low NE of New Zealand (responsible for the small E’ly pulses Tues/Wed and possibly Fri) is expected to consolidate nicely to the S/SE of Tahiti mid-late this wek (see below) and generate a small trade swell for our region, probably arriving Sunday and peaking through Monday. No major size is likely - mainly thanks to the large travel distance - but 2ft+ sets can’t be ruled out.

Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday to see if there’s any more light at the end of the tunnel for weekend warriors.

Next week (Dec 2 onwards)

Long term model guidance is suggesting a major amplification of the Long Wave Trough over South-eastern Australia later this weekend and early next week, which could herald a major south swell event for the middle of next week - likely best suited to Northern NSW. 

That’s what I’ll be focusing on over the coming days, as there ain’t much else showing up on the extended forecast charts right now.

See you Wednesday!