South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th September)

Best Days: Small trade swell in SE Qld all week though nothing special. Northern NSW will see fluctuating S'ly swells all week too; early Wed looks like the pick at this stage but Thurs/Fri mornings should also offer windows of options ayt protected northern corners. 

Recap: Early light N/NW winds on Saturday morning offered OK waves at protected northern ends in Northern NSW, as a residual S’ly swell provided 2-3ft waves across south facing beaches, mixing in with a small N’ly windswell. S’ly winds spread up the coast during the day and Sunday saw small rebuilding S’ly swells south of Byron into the 2-3ft range, with improving conditions under an easing wind pattern before afternoon sea breezes kicked in. Surf size remained tiny in SE Qld. Today started off clean with light winds but a trough has swung winds onshore during the day and they’re now bumping up most beaches. Surf size has eased back to baseline levels though we are expecting a small late increase in local windswell in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW.

This week (Oct 1 - 4)

Let’s kick off with SE Qld first.

The trough off the SE Qld coast will generate some weak windswell for Tuesday, with sets up to 2ft+ at exposed beaches though conditions will remain very average under a fresh SE airstream. Pockets of SW winds are possible across the Southern Gold Coast but it’s unlikely to be worth too much effort.

The trough will contract to the north during Tuesday, and a modest ridge through the central/lower Coral Sea will maintain small trade swells for the rest of the week. No major size is likely, with the Sunny Coast picking up fluctuating surf around 2ft+ and smaller wave heights expected south of the Gold Coast. Easing winds are expected Wednesday and the rest of the week will see early light NW winds tending NE into the afternoon. So, keep your expectations low - it won't be a very strong swell and it'll be tidally dependent too.

Looking south of the border, and we’ve got a succession of new S’ly swells inbound for the rest of the week, and the good news is that there’ll be reasonably favourable conditions for the next few days but freshening N’lies are expected Thursday afternoon and Friday as a high pressure system in the western Tasman Sea muscles up against the coast. Expect light winds and sea breezes Tues/Wed (lingering SE winds are likely north from about Evans Head on Tuesday though).

As for surf, there are two primary southerly swells to work around, though we’ll actually see four or five individual pulses between now and Friday, and so the overlapping swell trains will create some interesting setups across exposed south facing beaches. Because of this, estimating precise daily size trends is difficult, so as per Friday’s notes I’d prefer to ballpark the two main peaks and the likely timing where they’ll reach maximum size.

Late Tuesday and Late Thursday will see the biggest waves of the week (more so the Mid North Coast than the Far North Coast); the first swell on Tuesday should reach 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. This swell will have been generated by the front pushing through the Lower Tasman Sea this morning, and there’ll probably be a delay on this swell in the morning (especially in the Far North, where we’ll see an overnight peak).

Surf size will be smaller at beaches not completely open to the south, and SE Qld won’t pick up much size away from exposed northern ends (which should see occ 3ft sets).

Wednesday will see a minor decrease in size during the day - not a lot, mind - ahead of a long period S’ly swell arriving late Thursday (mainly Mid North Coast - again, a chance it’ll reach the Far North overnight) sourced from a powerful low beneath the continent at the moment.

It’s very strong but poorly aligned, so I’m expecting a fraction more size at south swell magnets (thanks to the longer swell periods) but probably a broader range in wave heights - i.e. a smaller percentage of locations picking up the bigger surf, and proportionally smaller surf at protected spots.

So, south facing beaches should rebuild to 3-5ft through the afternoon but a handful of south swell magnets should push a little higher. Set waves will also be a lot less consistent, and it'll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south. Across SE Qld I don’t think we’ll see much at most beaches but exposed northern ends should again reach the 3ft mark very late Thursday and early Friday.

Following a peak in size overnight Thursday, easing wave heights are then expected throughout Friday. Northern corners will have the best waves but may be slightly overpowered by the size and strength, so the afternoon could end up offering the best waves of that day.

This weekend (Oct 5 - 6)

Nothing major expected this weekend.

Friday’s easing swell will bottom out into Saturday with slow 2ft waves at south facing beaches south of Byron and tiny surf elsewhere. Light winds and sea breezes are likely Saturday, but freshening northerlies are on the cards for Sunday.

The small trade swell expected this week will also ease into the weekend.

Another Southern Ocean front taking our recent well-worn synoptic path will enter the lower south-eastern Tasman Sea on Friday, and generate a new S/SE swell for Sunday though it’ll be slow and inconsistent with maybe some rare 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron.

Next week (Oct 7 onwards)

Nothing major standing out for next week other than the normal spring-time progression of fronts through the Tasman Sea, maintaining some kind of southerly swell for the foreseeable future. More on this in Wednesday’s update.