South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 6th September)

Best Days: Sat: small window early with minor NE windswell and offshore winds (mainly between Gold Coast and Ballina). Sun: strong S'ly swell building across Northern NSW (only small SE Qld), holding Mon. Tues/Wed: large, windy S'ly swell, best for protected points - mainly SE Qld though it'll be much smaller. Thurs: smaller, clean leftovers. Fri: interesting long period S'ly groundswell for Northern NSW. 

Recap: SE swell maintained 3ft+ sets across Northern NSW on Thursday, with smaller surf in SE Qld, best suited to the wide open northern ends (2ft+). Conditions were clean early ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Another small SE swell maintained 2-3ft sets across Northern NSW this morning, though it was tiny in SE Qld and freshening northerly winds throughout the day have created problems at all but the most sheltered northern corners. 

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

We’ve got an imminent W’ly change on the cards, due to reach our coast in the early hours of Saturday morning.

The timing on this change is crucial for Saturday morning’s surf prospects, because it will concurrently shut off the current generation of local N’ly windswell. Wave heights will peak shortly after its arrival and trend down - so by first light, we’ll already be well and truly on the backside of this local event and size will only continue to ease steadily from here on. 

As it is, this NE windswell will mainly favour the southern Gold Coast, Tweed Coast and a handful of northerly-exposed spots across the Northern Rivers. Rare 2-3ft sets are possible at first light, easing to 1-2ft by mid-morning, and abating further into the afternoon. Expect smaller waves elsewhere, though it’ll be clean with offshore winds. 

The chances of a flukey south swell on Saturday (mentioned in Wednesday’s notes) have diminished a little, thanks to a slight slowing of the broader synoptic pattern. It's still possible for some south friendly beaches in Northern NSW to pick up a foot or two into the afternoon but don't get your hopes up.

Nevertheless, Sunday is still on track for a strong new southerly swell, originating from a powerful low pressure system exiting eastern Bass Strait later Saturday. Wave heights will be undersized in the morning - especially in the Far North (and SE Qld, by default) so late afternoon will see the most size. 

The fetch generating this swell will be poorly aligned within our swell window (see below), however with core wind speeds of 50-60kts, we’ll still see a healthy spread of long period energy across Northern NSW. The acute southerly direction will create a greater-that-usual size difference between exposed beaches and protected locations too.

South facing beaches south of Byron should see a peak around 5-6ft, with smaller 3ft waves at remaining beaches. The Mid North Coast should see some sizeable waves through the morning but it’ll probably be after lunch for anywhere north of Yamba. 

Across SE Qld - where we’ll start off very small through the morning, and build into the afternoon - the late session should deliver a few slow 2ft waves across the outer Gold Coast points, bigger at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches in the 3ft+ range. Expect smaller surf elsewhere, and across the Sunshine Coast. Don’t expect a lot of action early in the day either. 

Both days should be clean with mainly W’ly quadrant winds. 

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

Monday should see Sunday’s late building trend level out in a similar size range (small SE Qld, larger at exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW), with winds remaining moderate offshore in the north, but becoming fresh and gusty SW across the Mid North Coast as a new front and low pushes through the lower Tasman Sea.

This will also generate  S’ly gales adjacent the Southern NSW Coast, and they will in turn kick up a large south swell for the middle of the week.

As such, Tuesday and Wednesday are looking at large windy S’ly swells with protected locations offering the only workable options. Conditions will ease through Wednesday and even with a brief window of early SW winds, it’ll still only be suitable for sheltered points. 

South facing beaches south of Byron will see large bumpy waves in the 6-8ft+ range (the models are way overcalling this event), with much smaller surf at protected locations and souther corners. 

The outer SE Qld points will be the biggest beneficiary from this pattern - size will be considerably smaller thanks to the S’ly swell direction, but because Tuesday’s fetch will be quite wide - occupying almost the entire western half of the Tasman Sea (see below) - it’ll result in a little more S/SE in the swell direction, and this will help size prospects. I think we’re looking at 3-4ft+ surf at most outer Gold Coast points both days, a little smaller on the Sunshine Coast. Exposed northern ends/south facing beaches will be much larger but obviously quite wind affected. 

Wednesday will also see a secondary SE swell in the water, from a brief fetch exiting Cook Strait on Monday, filling in underneath the slowly easing S/SE swell (see above). 

By Thursday, this weather system will have cleared to the east so we’ll see rapidly abating wave heights and light variable winds. There should still be plenty of surf for the Northern NSW points (4-5ft exposed northern ends, 3ft elsewhere) though afternoon northerlies will spoil surface conditions. 

Across SE Qld, small outer points in the 2-3ft range are likely early Thursday before the swell loses even more size and the N’ly breeze arrives. . 

Very late Thursday (Lower Mid North Coast) and Friday will see a long period S’ly groundswell - the models are not yet picking up - generated by a large, powerful low tracking south of Tasmania on Tuesday (see below).

Leading edge swell periods should be in the 18-20 second range, and we’re looking at south facing beaches south of Byron seeing 3-5ft surf. It’s a flukey swell direction so will bypass quite a few beaches (and much of SE Qld) but there’ll be good options to finish the working week. 

There’s more southerly swell in the mix of next weekend too as another strong front pushes into the Tasman Sea on Friday, but I’ll firm up all of this on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!