South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 4th September)

Best Days: Thurs: fun though easing E'ly swell with generally OK winds. Fri: brief window early in Northern NSW, with NW winds and a small fun SE swell. Sat: chance for a small N'ly windswell early, clean with offshore winds. Sun thru' Wed: series of large though very flukey S'ly swells, though windy conditions especially in Northern NSW. Mon will be smaller between swells. 

Recap: Northern NSW has seen excellent surf over the last few days, with most coasts reporting 3-4ft surf out of the E thru’ E/SE, and a couple of bigger pulses reported across the Mid North Coast. However, the swell source and direction wasn’t as favourable for SE Qld, with slow 2ft sets across the Gold Coast (bigger at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches) and slightly smaller waves on the Sunshine Coast. Winds have been generally light and variable with afternoon sea breezes. 

Rare sets at Snapper Rocks today

Small lines on the Sunny Coast this morning

Plenty of swell in Coffs Harbour this morning

This week (Sep 5 - 6)

Thursday is looking pretty good, though you’ll have to make it early, as we’re expecting surf size to ease throughout the day.

The fetch responsible for our current swell was still active late yesterday, which means we’ll see continuing surf into Thursday though with a slight weakening trend into the afternoon. Tomorrow morning should still manage 3ft+ sets at exposed beaches south from Byron (maybe the odd bigger bomb on the Mid North Coast again), but size will gradually through the day and early light offshore winds will swing into an afternoon sea breeze, deteriorating wave quality.

North of the border, only exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast will see any appreciable size (2ft+) with 1-2ft waves elsewhere and it’ll be similarly small and slow across the Sunshine Coast. The afternoon breeze will pick up from the north.

At first glance, Friday looks like a write-off with early light winds quickly tending N’ly and strengthening considerably during the day. This should kick up a late N’ly windswell for exposed north-facing beaches, biggest across the southern Gold Coast, Tweed Coast and parts of the Northern Rivers - however conditions won’t be great with local winds likely to be in the 20-30kt range. 

However, there are options for the dawn patrol. We should see a brief window of clean conditions at exposed northern ends in Northern NSW under a light NW breeze. Also, we actually have a small, fresh pulse of SE swell on the cards, generated by the tail end of a broad (poorly aligned) SW fetch currently sitting in the south-eastern Tasman Sea - this is actually the latter stages of the same trough that generated our current E’ly swell (as it consolidated and rotated away from us, pushing north towards Fiji).

Confidence is not high on how much surf we’ll see, and the sets will be inconsistent, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some Northern NSW swell magnets raked in a handful of 2-3ft+ sets early, with smaller surf in SE Qld. Keep your expectations low and you may be pleasantly surprised.

This weekend (Sep 7 - 8)

There are plenty of interesting surf possibilities for Saturday morning. 

Friday’s late N’ly wind will kick up a decent windswell that should reach 3ft+ overnight, and an approaching W’ly change will push through before midnight, rapidly cleaning up wave heights.

However, the arrival of this change will also herald a ceasing of swell production, and the local source of the swell means wave heights will drop very quickly.

As a result we’re looking at rapidly easing surf from the get-go, so you’ll need to surf early to maximise anything from the N’ly windswell. It’ll be biggest across the southern Gold and Tweed Coasts and parts of the Byron region with perhaps the odd 2-3ft set at a bunch of reliable swell magnets, but expect wave heights to halve by mid-late morning.

Elsewhere, expect smaller surf (including the Sunshine Coast, due to a shorter upstream fetch) with limited options.

The overnight change will be associated with an approaching trough that’ll evolve into a significant low pressure system off Southern NSW on Saturday morning, displaying a broad region of W’ly gales exiting the Hunter/Mid North Coast, and an impressive fetch of SW winds pushing 50-60kts through the south-western Tasman Sea.

Now, there are two possible swells from this development (see below).

First up, the (very) poorly aligned W’ly fetch should ordinarily be written off as a swell source, but we have occasionally seen - even as recent as a month or two ago - a small but appreciable spread of swell energy back into the coast (coming in at a SE trajectory) that can provide occasional 2ft, almost 2-3ft waves to a handful of reliable south swell magnets. 

The great majority of beaches will completely dip out from this source, but it’ll be absolutely well worth keeping a close eye out mid-late Saturday afternoon for signs of any new swell from this region.

Secondly, the storm force SW fetch off Southern NSW will generate a brief but strong and powerful pulse of directional south swell that’ll fill in on Sunday morning. It’s really hard to have confidence in how much size we’ll see because the strength of this system would ordinarily suggest very large waves (10-12ft) but its poor alignment (including a healthy percentage of work done inside the Hunter shadow) will shave off a considerable degree of size for our region. 

It’s quite possible that a handful of reliable south swell magnets south of Byron could see a short lived 6-8ft+ pulse on Sunday morning, but wave heights will be much, much smaller elsewhere, including SE Qld where the outer Gold Coast points may come in around 2-3ft of we’re very lucky (smaller elsewhere, including the Sunshine Coast, though larger at exposed northern ends).

Let’s take a closer pass on Friday - it’s a flukey system and confidence isn’t high on what we’ll see just yet, so I really need a few more updates to properly evaluate this system.

Next week (Sep 9 onwards)

Another strong front will push through the Western Tasman Sea on Monday, but this system will extend much further south, resulting in a longer swell event - building into Tuesday, easing Wednesday. 

This system will also see strong local winds, but they’ll be more from the SW thru’ S (instead of the weekend’s pattern from the W/SW thru’ SW), so only sheltered corners will be worthwhile. At this stage a peak in the 6-8ft+ range is quite likely at south swell magnets south of Byron, with better options across the outer SE Qld points where we should see occasional 3ft+ sets. 

More on this in Friday’s update.