South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd August)

Best Days: Sat: solid from the south in Northern NSW though easing, clean with early light winds. Much smaller but fun in SE Qld at exposed spots. Sun: small in Northern NSE (very small SE Qld) but clean through the AM. Late Wed onwards: series of small, long period S'ly swells for exposed beaches south of Byron, holding into the weekend (tiny in SE Qld though). Chance for an E/NE swell next weekend too.

Recap: Thursday threw up some interesting curveballs. The Mid North Coast saw 5-6ft sets through the morning from the first of two new south swells, but locations further north were a little smaller, around 3ft+ on the Tweed Coast and very small across SE Qld away from exposed northern ends. A very large S’ly swell filled in late afternoon across the Mid North Coast and overnight across remaining coasts, providing 8-10ft sets at some south swell magnets in Northern NSW, though much smaller elsewhere. SE Qld delivered good surf across the outer Gold Coast points around 3-5ft however it was considerably smaller across the Sunshine Coast.

Snapper Rocks this morning

Nice early (and initially empty!) lines at the Superbank

Kirra offering a few

This weekend (August 24 - 25)

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The weather system responsible for our recent large south swell has just exited our swell window, so the size trend will continue down from here on. 

The main issue we have this weekend are developing northerly winds, thanks to an approaching front to the south. 

Early Saturday will be clean everywhere, but we’re expecting northerlies across Northern NSW from mid-late morning onwards, strongest across the Mid North Coast, possibly around 20kts by mid-late afternoon. 

We’ll see less strength in the Far North and across SE Qld, but even ten knots from this direction will cause problems across the regional points so aim for northern corners for the best waves (it’ll be NW early too, so best up first thing at the wide open beaches).

Sunday will see light to moderate NW winds for the most part, but an afternoon N/NE breeze can’t be ruled out. Again, aim for an early surf. 

As for size, we’ll see early 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron early Saturday, but it’ll be much smaller at beaches not directly open to the south. Sunday will then ease further from 2-3ft+ at south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere and abating into the afternoon.

SE Qld will experience much smaller surf, with the Sunshine Coast again dipping out in the size department (compared to the Gold Coast).

The outer Goldy points should manage some leftover 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets around dawn before trailing off to 1-1.5ft by the afternoon. Expect larger waves at south facing beaches and exposed northern ends, in the 3-4ft+ range early (also easing). Expect a foot or more less north from Moreton Island, and by Sunday we’ll be back to small weak surf only showing at exposed northern ends everywhere north of the border.  

So.. make the most of Saturday! Especially the morning. 

Next week (August 26 onwards)

The wind forecast for next week is rather tricky, thanks to a lingering coastal trough that’ll persist until next weekend. At this stage there’s more chance for a variable flow in the Far North and SE Qld regions, whilst the predominant flow - even if only light to moderate - will probably be from the SW thru’ SE across the Mid North Coast. 

A small new S’ly swell should nose into Northern NSW south swell magnets on Monday, sourced from a fast eastward-tracking front below Tasmania over the weekend. South swell magnets should pick up occasional 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets but it’ll be very small elsewhere, and size will ease into the afternoon. I’m not expecting much action in SE Qld.

The rest of the week looks pretty dismal on the forecast graph, but we’ve actually got some fun small waves on the cards. 

A sustained passage of strong though poorly aligned fronts below the continent will generate a series of small long period southerly groundswells through the middle to latter part of the week. Tuesday and Wednesday look a little small and flukey - perhaps some 1-2ft waves at reliable south swell swell magnets south of Byron - but from late Wednesday onwards we’ll see some nice surf that could push up into the 3-4ft range at times at beaches south of Byron with good southerly exposure. 

A couple of caveats though. With multiple overlapping swell trains, it’s hard to have any confidence (at long range) of each day's size trend - I’ll firm things up in a little more detail on Monday.

Additionally, these swells will be acutely south in direction so only south swell magnets will see any appreciable size; many other beaches will be tiny to flat. This includes most of SE Qld. 

But.. there are waves ahead. Don’t worry too much about the start of the week but keep the diary free Thurs/Fri, even next weekend should see a continuation of this pattern.

Looking elsewhere, and into the long range there Tasman Sea has some interesting possibilities. The aforementioned coastal trough is modelled to deepen later in the week and could fire up our E/NE swell window for next weekend too. It’s early days yet but I’ll keep a close eye on things. 

Have a great weekend!