South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 9th August)

Best Days: Sun: keep an eye out for small, low confidence, sneaky S'ly swell across Northern NSW. Mon/Tues/Wed/Thurs: plenty of S'ly swell for Northern NSW (only small in SE Qld), with generally good conditions. 

Recap: Thursday saw steadily easing S/SE swells from Wednesday, up to 2-3ft at south facing beaches south from Byron but smaller elsewhere and tiny throughout SE Qld. Winds went N/NW thru' N'ly early morning but swung NW around lunchtime then W/NW into the afternoon. Much smaller surf has settled in today, flat in many spots, with offshore winds keeping conditions clean. 

This weekend (August 10 - 11)

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We’ve got a tricky forecast ahead, though the overarching swell trend will be out of the southern quadrant.

Right now, an intense, complex series of polar lows are pushing across the SE corner of the country. They’re responsible for a lot of wild weather in SA, Vic and NSW, and will continue to dominate proceedings over the weekend. 

However, the storm track isn't favourbaly lined up for us right now.

Saturday looks tiny to flat in general. A strong front exiting eastern Bass Strait has just enough south in its alignment to allow for an outside chance that some south swell magnets (likely south of Coffs) may see fleeting glimpses of flukey south swell in the 1-2ft range during the afternoon. But on the balance it’s unlikely you’ll find anything surfable.

Now, in assessing Northern NSW’s swell potential from westerly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait, there’s a simple rule of thumb - we need at least a small degree of south in the wind direction in order for the swell to spread up the NSW coast with any efficiency.

Model guidance previous suggested only a thin fetch of straight W’ly winds, but the latest observations from Hogan Island and the Kingfish B oil rig show that winds have already gone W/SW (gusting 49kts mid afternoon). This is the possible source for Saturday afternoon.  

A series of secondary fronts will then slingshot through eastern Bass Strait over the weekend, maintaining activity through this remote swell window.

The storm track looks a little better into Saturday - exiting eastern Bass Strait again - and particularly overnight into Sunday. Again, any swell generated will be acutely south in direction, and will only favour south swell magnets south of Byron. It’s the kind of scenario where an extra 5-10kts of wind strength or a couple of degrees in alignment could add (or take away) three or four feet to the eventual surf height at your local.

I am banking on the sustained nature of the frontal activity overriding some of the directional deficiencies, so I certainly can’t rule out a handful of breaks picking up an increase from 2ft to 3-4ft into Sunday afternoon, though I’d be surprised it occurred at more than a handful of breaks between Seal Rocks and Byron Bay (i.e. most beaches will miss out). This is a low confidence event so plan accordingly (i.e. don't plan on surfing). 

Across SE Qld, most coasts will remain tiny to flat. The possible swell increase mentioned above for Northern NSW may favour exposed northern ends and south facing beaches through the afternoon, though it’s hard to have any confidence on size (and, it may also arrive to late to be of any benefit). Still, it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the D’Bah surfcam for signs of life. 

As for conditions, the fronts will maintain fresh, gusty W/NW thru’ W’ly winds all weekend. 

Next week (August 12 onwards)

There’s quite a few sources for swell next week. 

First up: a deep low SE of Tasmania today will form a secondary centre off the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island over the weekend, and we’ll see a fun SE swell fill into Northern NSW early next week. 

A strong polar low will then move up from below South Australia - in our acute, distant southerly swell window - and with core wind speeds of 40-50kts will generate a long period S’ly swell that’s due to arrive during Wednesday, easing Thursday. This swell will only favour Northern NSW but should produce 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, smaller elsewhere.

The main swell source early next week will be the merging of the frontal passage across the SE corner of the country, and the remnants of today’s low SE of Tasmania.

This will drive strong S’ly winds from about Tasmanian latitudes up to Far Northern NSW, and we’ll see fluctuating mid-range energy across Northern NSW from Monday through Thursday, somewhere between 4ft and 6ft range at south facing beaches. Anywhere not open to the south will be smaller.

Across SE Qld the swell direction won’t favour a lot of size but we should see a peak around Tuesday in the 2ft range across the outer Gold Coast points, up to 3-4ft at exposed northern ends. Expect smaller surf across the Sunny Coast. Either side of Tuesday expect slightly smaller surf. 

As for conditions, breezes SW winds are expected across Northern NSW on Monday but we’ll see light variable winds and sea breezes through Tuesday and Wednesday before N’ly winds kick in late Wednesday and hold through Thursday as the next frontal systems approach from the west. 

Much lighter winds are expected in SE Qld all week, generally light and variable in the mornings with sea breezes though the afternoon trend will be S thru’ SE’ly Mon/Tues and N thru NE’ly Wed/Thurs. 

In actual fact, the overall surf/wind/weather pattern for next week looks much like what we’ve seen this week.

Looking long term, and the rest of the week has freshening NW winds as the next fronts approach from the west, riding unusually north in latitude. With declining swells that will probably become quite small thanks to a period of inactivity in our swell window, we'll see small windy waves to finish the week. In fact the Gold/Tweed Byron coast could pick up a small N’ly windswell around Friday too. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!