South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th July)

Best Days: Great waves most days, but make the most of the leftover E'ly swell Tues as we're coming into a long spell of S'ly swell from Wed onwards. Big surf (mainly Northern NSW) early next week too.

Recap: How was that, eh? Thanks for the great reports/feedback in Friday’s Forecaster Notes comments.. sounds like most of us did pretty well over the weekend with what ended up being a really nice round of sustained long period E’ly groundswell. Although there were some local exceptions, the broader trend was largest in SE Qld with 4-5ft surf Saturday, 3-5ft surf Sunday and still 3-4ft surf today (slightly smaller south from here). Winds were generally NW for most of Saturday (a brief arvo N’ly in some parts), before swinging SW on Sunday morning and then SE into the afternoon, and then around to the W/SW this morning ahead of a weak afternoon sea breeze. Out of interest, despite the significant swell shadowing, Southern NSW picked up 3-4ft sets Saturday, 3ft sets Sunday and 2-3ft sets today. It’s been quite an impressive event. 

Empty Superbank pre-dawn Monday

Alex still looking lovely this morning...

... and this afternoon!

Small reeling Noosa just before lunch

Divine Byron this afternoon

Still some late lines at Burleigh

This week (July 30 - August 2)

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Funny thing is, this east swell isn’t quite done yet. We’ve got one final pulse of energy due to arrive overnight (easing through Tuesday) from a weekend intensification as the same low tracked further east into the South Pacific. 

Despite better swell periods, the extra travel distance will shave off a little more size than the weekend’s waves, so in comparison, it’ll be a little smaller, a little weaker and a little less consistent too. I don’t really have any reason to deviate away from Friday’s estimates, which are 2-3ft+ sets across exposed SE Qld beaches, with smaller surf south from about Byron or Ballina. 

And…. that’s the last significant east swell we are going to see for a while. There’s currently a large, stationary high pressure system west of New Zealand at the moment (see it on the chart below) and a broad E’ly thru’ E/NE fetch is stretching up to about Tahiti - but it’s not terribly strong, and positioned a long way from the mainland. It’ll supply background E’ly swells for the rest of the week fluctuating in and around the 2ft mark, but we have much more dominant S’ly swells on the way (perhaps the east swell will be of benefit to some SE Qld beaches, which may not initially pick up a lot of size out of the south).

Anyway, a southerly change will push along the Northern NSW coast on Tuesday, reaching the Mid North Coast around dawn, then pushing into the Northern Rivers by lunchtime and SE Qld into the afternoon. Ahead of the change, expect light W’ly winds (which will be ideal for the trailing E’ly swell). 

In the lee of the change we’ll see some building short and mid-range S’ly swell - late afternoon across the Mid North Coast, and Wednesday everywhere else. This should create 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches. 

However, as mentioned on Friday, the initial stages of the parent low - underneath Tasmania, right now - are very strong (see below), with an impressive slingshot through our acute south swell window, and I think this will generate an underlying longer period pulse peaking some time Wednesday (before lunch Mid North Coast, after lunch Far North Coast). This has the potential to deliver a period of 4-6ft sets at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron, though with moderate to fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds at times, conditions won’t be great at exposed spots. Protected southern corners and points will be your best option, and they'll be a lot smaller. 

This southerly swell won’t do a lot for SE Qld, with small 1-2ft surf at outer points on Wednesday, and bigger though wind affected surf at exposed northern ends. In fact the residual E’ly swell may be a little bigger at this time, though it’ll be super inconsistent. 

Moderate southerly winds are then expected for the rest of the week. Some locations may pick up an early SW breeze, but in general it’s looking like the rest of the period will be best suited to semi-exposed/outer points and sheltered southern ends. 

On Thursday, we’ll see a brief flush of new long period swell across Northern NSW, from a secondary intensification of the same parent low as it approaches NZ on Tuesday morning. This should produce occasional 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches (i.e. a similar size as per Wednesday's peak), but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. Wave heights will then ease to 3-5ft for Friday. 

Across SE Qld, this part of the southerly swell progression should be a little better aimed, thanks to the storm track being across the eastern Tasman Sea (rather than the western Tasman Sea). However, with southerly winds on hand, only the points will offer clean conditions and I don’t think we’ll see much more than slow 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets. Expect bigger though wind affected waves at exposed northern ends. A minor decrease in size with similar conditions is expected here on Friday. 

This weekend (August 3 - 4)

Another new S’ly swell is expected for the start of the weekend, originating from fast moving front through the lower Tasman Sea late Wednesday and early Thursday. It does look like a very good swell, as the responsible fetch will be strong and broad, stretching down to polar latitudes well south of New Zealand. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should rebuild back into the 4-5ft range during the day, but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. SE Qld won’t enjoy this swell direction as much as Thurs/Fri, so the outer points look like delivering occasional 1-2ft+ sets if we’re lucky. However, light winds are expected on Saturday under a weak high pressure ridge so exposed northern ends and south facing beaches should rebuild back into the 3ft+ range. 

Sunday is shaping up to deliver the first stages of a really, really impressive south swell event.

The biggest Southern Ocean low of the year (in our swell window, anyway - see below) is expected to intensify south of Tasmania from Friday onwards (see below), with core winds of 60-70kts and - by Saturday - one of the broadest fetches of gale-to-storm force winds I’ve seen in a long time. They won’t be perfectly aimed within our south swell window, but the size, duration and strength will more than compensate for it.

Light winds and temporarily easing swells are expected early Sunday, but the leading edge of this new swell is expected to nose into Northern NSW after lunch with peak periods in the 20+ second range, and we’ll see a rapid climb in surf size late in the day (a peak is like early Monday morning). At this stage, most south facing beaches are likely to reach 8ft+ though I’ll assess the timing more closely in Wednesday’s update. Some exposed bombies etc should see significantly larger surf thanks to the long swell periods. 

Of course, sheltered southern corners will be your only option, and I’m not confident on the timing for SE Qld - which, despite seeing only a small percentage of the overall size, is still expected to deliver good waves by early next week. It may arrive too late on Sunday to be of benefit, but I’ll firm that up over the coming days. 

Next week (August 5 onwards)

Monday morning is likely to see a peak in size from this event. Although straight southerly swells are not necessarily the best option for the regional points, they’ll offer the only workable options as exposed locations are likely to be north of 8ft+. At this stage, I’m pegging Monday morning around 4ft across outer Gold Coast points (smaller on the Sunshine Coast).   

The low responsible for this swell swell will ease into Monday, but its slow moving nature will ensure only a gradual drop in size over the coming days. As such, expect plenty of strong though easing southerly swell through Tuesday and Wednesday. All of which is expected to be accompanied by light variable winds under the influence of a weak high pressure system. 

More in Wednesday’s update.