South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 26th July)

Best Days: Most days have potential with this fickle, flukey E'ly swell. Sat the pick for the most size and best winds though. Smaller leftovers on Mon. Plenty of S'ly swell for Northern NSW mid-late next week. 

Recap: As expected, we’ve seen a complex, flukey E’ly swell build across the coast over the last two days, in and around a small S’ly swell in Northern NSW on Thursday. Occasional 2ft sets out of the east were observed on Thursday, and some locations have pushed 2-3ft today though there’s been significant variations from coast to coast. Late afternoon/early evening observations suggests some bigger sets starting to push north of 3ft though it’s hard to be too sure (though, swell periods are increasing at the buoys, inline with expectations, which is a good sign). Interestingly, Southern NSW picked up 2ft sets from the same source this afternoon, despite the responsible low being even less favourably positioned inside the New Zealand swell shadow. 

Late lines at Caloundra on the Sunny Coast

Near-chunky full tide sets late Friday at D'Bah

Plenty of swell on the Coffs Coast

This weekend (July 27 - 28)

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It’s interesting looking at the array of buoy data across the coast at the moment. The Gold Coast buoy saw peak swell periods jump to 18 seconds after lunch, but by and large we’ve seen rather erratic results across the coast this afternoon which - with very inconsistent set waves - has made it difficult to asses these early, flukey phases of this swell event. 

As for the weekend forecast, I really don’t have any evidence to suggest altering what I called on Monday and Wednesday - sure, the trend has been all over the shop for the last two days, but to date we’ve been close enough to the expected size range to be reasonably confident in the forward estimates, so I think the weekend will deliver good results across some coasts. Though, not all coasts - purely because of the fickle nature of these long range, long period E’ly groundswell and the way they interact across the near shore zone (we don’t get enough of ‘em to build up a quantifiable database). 

So, without labouring the point, expectations are still that locations further north will see the most size. Of course, today’s observations have shown this to not necessarily be the case, however aside from basic scientific principles, I don’t have any other information to suggest otherwise. 

The other aspect to consider is that we’re looking at a broad plateau in size oover the weekend. So, if Saturday morning doesn’t quite float your boat, then don’t write off the surf as the afternoon may deliver better results. Light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes are expected during the day so conditions should be clean throughout. We’ll see similar (though gradually easing) swells into Sunday, but a series of weak fronts will swing winds to the southern quadrant (no major strength) so you may have to aim towards a southern end or outer point. 

As for size, very inconsistent 4-5ft sets are still on the cards for some (lucky) exposed coasts on Saturday, easing back a little into Sunday, and we can expect the upper end of this size range to the north, and the lower end to the south. That’s about as much detail as I can go into here and now, until the actual energy starts to muscle in and shows its true self. 

Next week (July 29 onwards)

Whatever E’ly swell makes landfall on the weekend will ease into Monday, and it’ll be clean with offshore winds. Yet another pulse of flukey E’ly swell is expected to arrive late in the day and hold through Tuesday, from another phase of strong activity from the South Pacific low - though having been generated further away (and no less favourably within the swell window) it’ll be a little smaller and equally fickle and flukey. 

Let’s peg Tuesday’s size around 2-3ft+ at exposed coasts (mainly in the north) and expect even longer breaks between sets than what the weekend delivers. The east swell will then ease from Wednesday onwards. 

In any case, a front will push up the coast on Tuesday, freshening winds from the south and building southerly wind swells across exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW. 

A stronger S’ly groundswell trailing behind will build through Wednesday, generated by the parent low (to Tuesday’s S’ly wind change), south of Tasmania on Monday. It look pretty impressive. 

In fact, there’s a nice slingshot expected to occur as the low approaches Tasmania on Sunday afternoon - right on the western periphery of our acute south swell window - and I think that could offer a pulse of bigger surf above the broader regional expectations (i.e. occasional 5-6ft sets at south swell magnets, though in general we’re probably looking at a 3-5ft south swell event through the middle of the week). 

Otherwise, the rest of the week will maintain similar, moderate levels of southerly swell across Northern NSW from secondary fronts pushing through the central/eastern Tasman Sea, ahead of an enormous Southern Ocean low below Tasmania at the end of the model runs that suggests a brief though impressive long period swell around the middle of next weekend (only low confidence at this early stage though).

SE Qld won’t see much size from this southerly swell pattern though, so make the most of the inconsistent E’ly swell. 

Have a great weekend!