South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th July)

Best Days: SE Qld: Late Mon: small waves at the outer points. Tues/Wed: fun, though easing surf at exposed northern ends. Northern NSW: Sun thru' Wed: sizeable S'ly swell best suited to points. 

Recap: Slowly easing S/SE and E’ly swell maintained fun 2-3ft beachies through Thursday, easing to 1-2ft today. Conditions have been clean with light offshore winds. 

Stunning dawn at Yamba

Still some small Friday arvo peaks on offer at Yamba

This weekend (July 13 - 14)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Hope you’ve enjoyed the last fortnight’s unseasonably good run of extended E’ly swell. Because this swell window has shut down for the foreseeable future, and we’ll be reliant on southerly swell for the next couple of weeks. 

In general, this means most beaches and points throughout SE Qld can expect a prolonged period of small conditions. 

In any case, all coasts will be tiny on Saturday. There have been no weather systems within our swell window over the last few days, and a vigorous front crossing the SE corner of the country is not expected to round the Tasmanian corner until early Saturday morning. 

Sunday will see a brief pulse of solid S’ly swell move up the Northern NSW coast. Winds should ease back to a light to moderate W’ly though some locations may see lingering fresh SW winds early in the wake of the front (expected to cross the coast late Saturday afternoon). 

The swell direction will be acutely south - in fact, regionally S/SW - so there’ll be an enormous range in wave heights. South facing beaches south of Byron could pick up a short lived pulse near 4-6ft, though it’ll be smaller in size either side 3-4ft early morning and late afternoon. Elsewhere, expect much smaller surf, with tiny waves at protected southern corners. 

Across SE Qld, most beaches won’t see much from this source, just a brief pulse through the middle of the day up to 1-2ft at outer points. Exposed northern ends/south facing beaches north of the border may see stray 3ft sets through the afternoon but it’s not worth getting too excited about (expect slightly smaller surf across the Sunshine Coast, compared to the Gold Coast). However light winds are due through the afternoon so it should be clean. 

Next week (July 15 onwards)

The models have shunted the early stages of the next Southern Ocean frontal sequence a little further to the west. As such, even though it’ll be much stronger, the primary fetch will be bisected by Tasmania (see chart below) and this has slightly tempered surf height and duration estimates for early-mid next week.

Fortunately, yet more low/front combos will develop in our south swell window around the same time (one below Tasmania, another off the ice shelf) which will prolong activity from this quadrant.

The first swell will be the largest, building Monday and peaking overnight across Northern NSW before easing slowly on Tuesday. South facing beaches should of Byron should reach somewhere between 6ft and maybe 6-8ft at south facing beaches at the height of the swell, but again it’ll be much smaller at locations with less southerly exposure - though the range won’t be quite as dramatic as Sunday’s acute south swell.

Winds are a bit of a concern for Monday afternoon, mainly in Northern NSW where the associated front will clip the region, driving winds to the SW then maybe S/SW. So, only protected locations will see anything worthwhile.

Fortunately, a quickly relaxing pressure gradient under the influence of a weak high will allow light winds to develop Tuesday thru’ Thursday, offering clean conditions. The secondary swells should maintain 4-6ft surf at south facing beaches through Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, before size eases rapidly through Thursday. 

Across SE Qld, this swell direction really won’t favour many beaches, and you’ll have to work around the peak of the first swell for the most size potential - late Monday or early Tuesday - where outer Gold Coast points may see a brief pulse in the 2-3ft range. Exposed northern ends and south facing beaches could see 3-5ft sets at this time, but it’ll be much smaller either side (early Monday, later Tuesday). 

Tuesday is probably the pick of the period as we’ll see the most favourable conditions at that time. Smaller swells are then expected through Wednesday with tiny conditions from Thursday onwards. 

More strong fronts passing across Tasmanian longitudes from Wednesday thru’ Friday will be very zonal in alignment (west-east) and this will keep a lid on surf size throughout the East Coast. Most beaches will ease back to very small wave heights during this period - Thursday morning probably seeing leftovers from the mid-week activity throughout Northern NSW - but otherwise down to 1-2ft to finish the week, even smaller north of the border. However, south swell magnets south of Byron should pick up intermittent 2-3ft pulses if we’re lucky. Offshore winds will keep conditions clean throughout. 

Have a great weekend!