South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd June)

Best Days: Tues: fun clean beachies early morning, mainly in Northern NSW. Wed: large S'ly swell in Northern NSW but very wind affected. Much smaller in SE Qld, with OK options across the outer points. Thurs/Fri/Sat: continuing S'ly swells - large Fri a'noon in Northern NSW - best suited to sheltered locations and points. Sun: small clean surf at most beaches, keep an eye out for sneaky long period S'ly swell south of Byron in the a'noon.

Recap: By and large, the weekend came in close to expectations across most coasts. We saw S’ly swells build to 6-8ft across Northern NSW’s south swell magnets on Saturday, easing from about 6ft on Sunday, and conditions were variable depending on exposure to wind (gusty S’ly on Sat, and SW on Sun, though with W/SW periods through the early mornings). Surf size was smaller at remaining beaches, and we saw mixed results across SE Qld: the Gold Coast saw small, very inconsistent surf around 2ft+, though up to 3-4ft+ at south swell magnets - however the Sunshine Coast didn’t fare as well, even exposed northern ends didn’t see much energy here until late in the day. Today has seen a little more size than expected across Northern NSW (4-5ft+ sets against a 3-5ft forecast), however SE Qld has been the real surprise package, probably associated with a slight anti-clockwise swing in the swell direction to the S/SE. Again, most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches were very small (2ft and 1ft respectively) but exposed northern ends delivered occasional 3ft+ sets across both northern ends. It would appear that this is the main energy expected to peak late Saturday and early Sunday, but it instead arrived much later - adding further confusion is that the swell trend across Southern NSW played out as expected all weekend (down). Anyway, with light winds on offer conditions have been really good to kick off the working week.

Early Monday at D'Bah

Small empty peelers at Burleigh, late Monday morning

Monday afternoon lines at Narrowneck

Monday afternoon S/SE energy on the Sunshine Coast

This week (June 4 - 7)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

In 2015, Craig Brokensha penned an article When is an east coast low not an East Coast Low?

Right now, we’ve got a classic, though rare example of the reverse: the current low pressure system developing off the Southern NSW Coast was - as per last week’s model runs - expected to exhibit characteristics more like a Tasman Low. However, the latest model guidance has stalled its development and is keeping it much nearer the coast, which means we’re looking at an East Coast Low. 

Though, to be honest there’s no change in the surf forecast for the next few days: it’ll be very windy from the W/SW Tuesday, tending S’ly into Wednesday, and we’ll see a very large S’ly swell building late Tuesday (Mid North Coast), peaking Wednesday (remaining Northern NSW coasts; much smaller in SE Qld).

For what it’s worth, the reclassification from a Tasman Low to an East Coast Low will mainly show by way of much higher rainfall totals in Southern NSW, and marginally stronger local winds across that region. It won’t be materially different for most of Northern NSW and SE Qld.

Estimating wave heights for the peak of this event is a moot point anyway, because local winds will probably be in the 30kt range, gusting higher at times. So, whether the surf reaches 8ft, 10ft, or even 12ft (as per our model guidance for Coffs Harbour early Wednesday) - it’s all academic as the only rideable options will be novelty sheltered locations in Northern NSW that can handle both a very large swell and persistent southerly gales. Sheltered points will have the only workable options and the sweep will be very strong, no matter where you surf. So I’m not confident that there’ll be anything overly fantastic for the next few days.

Prior to the arrival of this event, early Tuesday should offer small clean leftover from today with freshening W/SW winds. I don’t think there’ll be quite enough size for most SE Qld beaches but the swell magnets in Northern NSW should do well for a few hours. 

Wave heights will trend down steadily during Wednesday afternoon, and continue to ease into Thursday, with fresh southerly winds persisting across Northern NSW. Protected spots will remain your only option for this time frame (brief period of SW winds are possible but they’ll be unlikely to offer any major improvement from the broadscale flow).

SE Qld should pick up a brief flush of S’ly swell for this event, around Wednesday. The peak probably won’t last a very long time, but should reach 3ft, maybe 3-4ft across the outer Gold Coast points, a little smaller at open beaches but bigger but very wind affected across exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. Expect a slightly smaller version across the Sunshine Coast. By Thursday it’ll be down quite a bit in size, with lingering S/SE winds (SW early in a few spots, such as the southern Gold Coast).

Friday looks really interesting though I fear a lingering S’ly breeze may take the shine off an otherwise great round of S’ly groundswell. This will have been generated by a broad, intense Southern Ocean low that’ll move through the lower Tasman Sea mid-week (see chart below).

Most south facing beaches south of Byron should build from 4-5ft to 6-8ft during the day, and the large periods will allow efficient diffractions into the sheltered points and southern ends. 

Across SE Qld, this well will arrive much later (perhaps not until the middle of the afternoon) and we’ll see long breaks between the sets - but the outer points could push 3ft+ at times if we're lucky, and we’ll see much larger though wind affected surf at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches. Once again, it’s likely that the Sunshine Coast will see smaller surf than the Gold Coast. And of course, expect smaller waves in the morning, ahead of its arrival. 

This weekend (June 8 - 9)

In general, Saturday will deliver lighter onshore winds, tending variable into Sunday, along with easing S’ly swells from Friday. 

Early Saturday morning should still offer occasional 5-6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, but the downwards trend is expected to be pretty steady during the day and it’ll be much smaller elsewhere. 

Across SE Qld, we should see small, inconsistent 2-3ft waves across the outer points and most open beaches, though size will probably halve during the day (and expect slightly smaller surf on the Sunny Coast). Exposed northern ends should see larger surf though, in the order of another foot or two. 

At first glance, Sunday looks pretty small across the region with residual S’ly swells.

However, a deep polar low well below Tasmania on Thursday/Friday (see below) is expected to display extremely strong winds - 60kts+ at its core - and this is expected to generate a small long period S’ly swell for Sunday - probably the afternoon, and only in Northern NSW - that could throw up occasional 3-4ft+ sets amongst the small leftover energy, towards the latter part of the day. Though, there will be considerably large breaks between the bigger waves.

With light winds on offer, it’ll be worth scouting out a south swell magnet. Unfortunately, I don’t expect this swell to do much in SE Qld, away from exposed northern ends. 

Next week (June 10 onwards)

Looks like a quiet period ahead for the first half of next week, ahead of the next onslaught of southerly swells towards the end of the week. More on this in Wednesday’s update.