South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 31st May)

Best Days: Most days will have plenty of southerly swell - with quite a few days being very sizeable in Northern NSW - but local conditions will dictate the best waves - Sun is the pick of the short term, then next Thurs/Fri when winds ease again. SE Qld should have small waves across the outer points Sat PM, Sun AM and then Tues/Wed (banks pending). 

Recap: Thursday started off very small at most coasts, bu a small south swell built across south swell magnets south of Byron into the afternoon. Today we’ve seen a slow increase in size throughout the day, though mainly across Northern NSW with tiny surf persisting throughout SE Qld. Most south facing beaches have seen 3-4ft sets but the larger increase expected later today (mainly Mid North Coast) isn’t showing yet - though it has increased across Southern NSW with sets in the 6ft range. So it isn’t far off. Conditions have been generally clean both days in all regions with light winds. 

This weekend (June 1 - 2)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

No change to the weekend forecast. 

We’ve got an extended period of strong south swell ahead, and Saturday morning will see large surf across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, south from Byron Bay. Set waves are likely to reach anywhere between 6ft and 8ft though freshening SW tending S’ly winds will confine the best waves to sheltered points and southern ends, where it’ll be much smaller. Keep in mind there’ll be a lot of water moving around regardless of your destination, so make sure you spend plenty of time assessing the lineup before you paddle out.

Across SE Qld, this energy will probably behave much in the manner of most south swells: much smaller, very inconsistent and generally patchy for quality surfing opportunities. Local winds will be lighter here than further south but we’ll still see a swing from early sou’westers around to the south. 

Most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches should maintain 2ft waves with the odd 2-3ft bombs at the outer points, but exposed northern ends and south swell magnets should see occasional 3-4ft+ waves at the height of the activity (Saturday afternoon, smaller earlier). So, expect smaller surf early Saturday morning.

On Sunday, an gradual easing trend will kick in but it won’t be as fast and pronounced as we’re used to seeing from most southerly swells, thanks to a series of secondary fronts racing through the southern Tasman Sea. This should maintain 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron early morning, abating to 4-5ft throughout the day, and the usual size caveats will apply to locations not directly open to the south.

SE Qld will also see a slow drop in size throughout Sunday, from 2ft+ to 1-2ft at most beaches, but bigger at exposed northern ends, easing from 3-4ft to 2-3ft.

Local conditions look much better on Sunday with mainly light variable winds and sea breezes. So it’ll be worth spending some time driving around looking for suitable banks. 

However, I'm really not confident on the prospects of good waves this weekend on any coast - there's simply too many potential variables likely to trip things up. 

Next week (June 3 onwards)

We’ve still got a large Tasman Low modelled to form in the southern Tasman Sea on Monday, the result of the merger of two systems - a mid latitude and a polar front, both approaching our swell window over the weekend. 

Monday will see surf size level out in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere, and much smaller throughout SE Qld away from exposed northern ends. Conditions will be clean with light offshore winds through the morning, though they’ll freshen from the SW across the Mid North Coast into the afternoon as the Tasman Low develops.  

This Tasman Low looks like it’s going to remain slow moving for a couple of days, with southerly gales inside our short range swell window generating very large surf around 8ft, maybe 8-10ft for south swell magnets (south of Byron) by Tuesday afternoon, easing gradually throughout Wednesday. Accompanying winds will be fresh to strong from the SW tending S/SW both days, so only sheltered spots will be worthwhile (and they’ll be much smaller).

Across SE Qld, we’ll see much smaller size due the direction but most of the region could still pick up 3-4ft sets. However only the points will be clean under fresh, gusty S’ly winds and given the state of the sand at the moment, there’s really no way to have confidence on likely surf conditions. 

A series of strong follow up fronts originating in the Southern Ocean are expected to push through the lower Tasman Sea, and maintain elevated southerly swells across Southern NSW through the latter part of the week. There's a good chance we’ll see 6ft+ surf at south facing beaches south from Byron from this next sequence , probably around Friday, give or take.

To be honest, this latter sequence looks much better for the region's surf prospects, as it’ll have been generated from further away (so swell quality will be higher) and the storm track will be a little further east into the Tasman Sea, so local conditions will be under the influence of a broad ridge high pressure, resulting in light winds. 

So, if you're fully booked early next week, don’t worry too much about the large surf as the second half of the week is currently my pick of the forecast period.

Let’s hope the next five days of solid southerly swells unwelds those banks too.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Not much surf below 5ft for the next eight days in Coffs Harbour. Red circles highlight the best conditions.