South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th May)

Best Days: SE Qld: Late Friday, Saturday and early Sunday looking at your best chance from this southerly sequence, though keep your expectations low. Northern NSW will see plenty of large S'ly swells from Friday thru' Wednesday next week, but local winds will be an issue at times. Sun and Mon are the pick (smaller, but cleaner).

Recap: Tuesday produced great waves at many coasts as a strong southerly swell filtered in across the region. South from Byron, set waves managed 4-5ft and across the Tweed Coast there were strong 3-4ft waves (see below), but interestingly - and as broadly expected - much of SE Qld hardly saw anything; south swell magnets on the Gold Coast picked up occasional 2ft+ sets but it wasn’t terribly consistent, most other beaches remained very small, the Sunshine Coast was even smaller. If anything the residual E’ly swell remained the more dominant source north of the border. Overnight Tuesday saw wave heights ease back into Wednesday, though a handful of south swell magnets south of Byron remained in the 2-3ft range throughout the day, with 2ft surf on the Tweed and very little southerly swell in SE Qld - just tiny lines around 1-1.5ft out of the east. As for conditions, it’s been cold but clean in the mornings with light offshore winds, with sunny afternoon conditions producing occasional sea breezes.

D'Bah showing small S'ly swells mid-morning Tuesday

Tweed Coast looking quite attractive mid-morning Tuesday

Small E'ly swells persisting across the Sunshine Coast Tuesday lunchtime

This week (May 30 - 31)

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First things first: we’re staring down the barrel of an extended run of typical winter synoptics, which typically means little to no trade swell activity for our region, and therefore little to no east swell.

As a consequence, SE Qld’s surf potential for the entire period will revolve around our south swell window, which is not particularly reliable. Expect small waves across most Gold and Sunshine coast beaches for at least the next week to week and a half.

South from Byron, it’s a much different story, with a lot of activity in our south swell window. And it’s all associated with an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough, that’s also bringing about an impressive cold snap to the southern states. 

Tuesday’s swell was the result of the first phase of the LWT, but the broader pattern still actually positioned over Tasmanian longitudes, which means S/SW gales on its western flank - required to generate south swell for us - are inside Tasmania’s swell shadow.

However, the LWT will move into Tasman Sea longitudes overnight, and strong S/SW winds will develop parallel to the South Coast early Thursday, building S’ly swells across Northern NSW for Friday. A strong polar front will race up behind (overnight Thursday), merging with the pre-existing S’ly flow and generating even bigger S’ly swells for Saturday.

There’s one other southerly swell source on the boil. A deep polar low well to the SE of Tasmania right now (see chart below) has 40-50kt S’ly winds around its core, and although there’s a large travel distance (the low won’t move north through our swell window, but remain at polar latitudes), the stronger winds will be responsible for larger swell periods in the 17-18 second range.

It’s hard to discern when this energy will arrive (as the models are having difficulty splitting up the swell trains - so they’re throwing them in all together), but late Friday across the Mid North Coast or (more likely) early Saturday looks like seeing the peak energy throughout Northern NSW. Though, it’ll be hard to pick from beneath the short and mid-range noise.

And lastly, W’ly gales exiting eastern Bass Strait today will kick up a small spread of S’ly swell for Northern NSW on Thursday, exclusive to south swell magnets, mainly south from Coffs in the afternoon (unlikely to reach the Far North Coast until very late).

Local winds will remain W/SW for most of Thursday and early Friday, but we are looking at a swing the S/SW throughout Friday as the last front in this sequence impacts the coast as the LWT continues to move further east into the Tasman Sea. This will be mainly felt across the Mid North Coast, with lighter winds expected both days north from about Byron.

As for size, expect small, slow S’ly swell early Thursday (1-2ft south facing beaches, mainly south of Coffs), building steadily during the day, reaching 2-3ft+ by late afternoon. We may also see a small rise in the Far North but I don’t think it’ll arrive until very late afternoon at the earliest. 

On Friday, we’ll see wave heights progressively increase from 3-4ft to 4-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron during the day, though keep in mind the increase will occur earlier in the south (and later in the north). Beaches not open to the south will be much smaller, and you need to keep a watch on afternoon winds south from Ballina. 

Across SE Qld, Friday’s S’ly swell increase won’t provide much more than slow, inconsistent 1-2ft surf at most open beaches by the afternoon (smaller earlier) but exposed northern ends and south swell magnets may pick up some 3ft sets after lunch. Keep your expectations low here (though, local winds should be OK for the afternoon increase). 

This weekend (June 1 - 2)

No change to the weekend forecast. 

Friday’s late peak in size should hold through Saturday morning, anywhere between 6ft to maybe 8ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, though much smaller at locations not open to the south as per usual. 

Local winds in Northern NSW will be moderate to fresh southerly in the lee of the LWT, but there is a reasonable chance for isolated pockets of early SW winds. So, conditions won't be great but there'll be plenty of options across sheltered spots given the size of the south swell.

North from the border, we’ll see plenty of energy at exposed northern ends, though it’ll be sweepy and winds are expected to pick up from the south, which will cause a few problems. Set waves could reach 3-4ft+ at these locations, but most Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches will see smaller surf between 2ft, maybe 2-3ft if we’re extremely lucky. I’m really not confident on Saturday being worthwhile though, as most south swells usually underperform - apart from rare exceptions, they’re usually very inconsistent, and don’t really approach the coast in the right way so options can be limited. But… there’ll be small waves around if you don’t mind racking up some miles looking for something workable.

Sunday looks much better on the surface with lighter SW tending S’ly winds, and slowly easing S’ly swells from 4-6ft to 3-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, much smaller elsewhere.

Across SE Qld we’ll be back to slow 1-2ft waves at most beaches, but occasional early 3ft+ sets at exposed northern ends/south swlel magnets easing to 2-3ft during the day. 

Next week (June 3 onwards)

Two systems are expected to merge as one large Tasman Low early next week: an initial polar front well south of Tasmania on Saturday, and mid-latitude front crossing the Tasmanian region around Sunday. 

At this stage Monday will see easing leftover S’ly swells from the weekend, and freshening W’ly winds as the low develops. Tuesday is currently on track for a large, windy southerly swell combo in the 6ft to maybe 6-8ft range at south facing beaches south of Byron.

Further systems trailing behind look like they’ll maintain vigorous southerly swell activity through the rest of the week too.

More on that in Friday’s update.