South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th May)

Best Days: Sat: small clean beachies in SE Qld. Sun: large though rapidly easing S'ly swell across Northern NSW, best at sheltered spots, only small across outer SE Qld points with a mix of swells. Mon onwards: extended peiriod of small pulsey S'ly swells in Northern NSW and small E'ly swells in SE Qld, with mainly light winds.

Recap: The surf’s been a little mixed for the last few days. Thursday saw light winds and clean conditions, with a distant S/SE swell and small residual E’ly swell across the region, whilst today saw very small surf and light winds tending onshore. Northern NSW still had some small easing S/SE swell on offer though.

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This weekend (May 11 - 12)

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Saturday morning will see very small leftover swell across most of Northern NSW, with freshening offshore winds as a large Tasman Low intensifies well off the Southern NSW coast.

SE Qld should pick up a small trade swell, from a freshening E’ly flow below New Caledonia today (see chart below). The models aren’t particular keen on this source, but I think we’ll see occasional 2ft to almost 2-3ft sets building exposed Sunshine Coast beaches during the day, then slightly smaller surf as you head south from the Gold Coast in the 2ft range (very little E’ly swell is expected south from Ballina).

Offshore winds will be a little lighter in SE Qld so conditions should be clean. Expect long breaks between the sets though, as it's not a strong swell source. 

The tropical system in the Northern Coral Sea hasn’t developed as well as hoped on Wednesday, so I don’t think we’ll see any NE swell of note this weekend. The models are still picking up half a metre at almost 10 seconds late Saturday (Gold Coast) but I think this is pretty optimistic.

Otherwise, the Tasman Low is our focal point for the weekend.

Large southerly swells will start to show across the Mid North Coast later Saturday, peaking overnight across Northern NSW and then easing rapidly throughout Sunday. The biggest waves will be limited to south swell magnets south of Byron Bay - perhaps some 6ft+ sets early Sunday - but with gusty SW tending S/SW winds on Sunday, only sheltered southern ends and protected points will have worthwhile (and much smaller) options. Expect a significant drop in size by close of business Sunday.

This south swell won’t be favourably aligned for SE Qld so we’ll see a smaller spread of swell across this region, up to 2ft+ across the outer points and then a wind affected 3ft+ at exposed northern ends on Sunday. SE Qld may also pick up some building short range S/SE swell from the local fetch developing in association with a strengthening coastal ridge but it won’t be very high quality.

All in all, despite the impressive synoptic charts I can’t see any amazing surf happening this weekend. There'll be small waves around the traps but nothing worth getting too excited about.

Next week (May 13 onwards)

A blocking high will occupy the Tasman Sea for much of next week, keeping the Southern Ocean storm track quite far south in latitude and maintaining an extended period of small ocean swells and light coastal winds across our region. 

Nevertheless, the storm track will be quite vigorous within our acute southern swell window, and with long swell periods arriving in association with several pulses of fresh energy, we’ll see fun waves at south facing beaches south of Byron Bay. 

In actual fact, there’s almost one new swell front expected to push across the coast each day of the week, and wave heights should fluctuate between 2ft and maybe 2-3ft for the most part (at south swell magnets south of Byron), occasionally pulsing a little higher at times

Away from exposed south facing beaches, we’ll see much smaller surf but the outlook remains favourable for fun small waves all week if you can get yourself to a beach with good southerly exposure. 

Across SE Qld, and a reasonably high pressure ridge through the northern Tasman should maintain 2ft+ of E’ly swell across most open beaches all week. Winds will be light to moderate onshore but we’ll see variable periods in the mornings. 

There’s nothing any interest showing up long term either at this stage, but I reckon you’ll pick up some fun peaky options all week.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!