South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th April)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: small south swell in Northern NSW with light winds south from Yamba. Next week: building E'ly swells, biggest over the Easter break. 

Recap: Small E’ly swells and N’ly winds prevailed Tuesday. Gusty S’ly winds developed early this morning, with building S’ly windswells, up to a choppy 4ft in Northern NSW (see Coffs Harbour below) with small waves throughout SE Qld, biggest at south swell magnets (see D’Bah below).

This week (April 11 - 12)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

A ridge will firm up across SE Qld in the wake of today’s change, maintaining SE winds across the SE Qld region region for a couple of days. 

However with only a small mix of S/SE and E’ly swells, there really won’t be enough size to get the southern points up and happening. And they’ll offer the best conditions under this breezey pattern, with bumpy surf prevailing at open beaches. 

Along the Northern NSW coast we’ll see similar conditions under S/SE winds, though they’ll be lighter in strength and there’s a chance for isolated pockets of early SW winds (mainly south from Yamba). 

Today’s southerly swell will ease steadily through Thursday and into Friday. South swell magnets will have the most size (3ft Thursday morning, easing to 2ft by Friday) but they’ll be bumpy. Friday afternoon should see a small long period S’ly swell glance the swell magnets with possible sets slightly bigger (2ft, maybe 2-3ft).


Both days will be very small elsewhere with minor residual E’ly swells.

On the balance, give the next few days a miss unless you’re totally desperate. 

This weekend (April 13 - 14)

The coastal ridge will remain in place over the weekend, so we’re expecting average conditions to persist for a few more days. 

Winds will be favourable for the SE Qld points (and unfavourable for the open beaches) but wave heights will remain small at protected spots, though we’ll see a small increase in size from Thurs/Fri into the weekend - and also a swing in the swell direction to the SE, as the fetch broadens out into the northern Tasman Sea. 

However, the bulk fetch will be positioned north of Gold Coast latitudes (aimed into the Coral Sea) so we’ll see the most size across the Sunshine Coast, with smaller surf south from here.

In short: don’t get your hopes up for anything worthwhile in SE Qld or Far Northern NSW this weekend. 

As for the remaining Northern NSW coasts, light SW winds will tend light to moderate SE both days, so conditions should be OK though nothing great is likely. The SE swell across northern parts will be tiny across south regions, but we’ll still have waves on offer at south facing beaches, originating from migrating polar lows along the ice shelf this week, well south of the continent, in our acute, remote south swell window. 

At this stage there’s no confidence in any timing for the swell phases, so keep your expectations low. South facing beaches south of Byron should see extremely inconsistent 2-3ft sets both days, but surf size will remain very small elsewhere. 

Next week (April 15 onwards)

No major changes to the long term outlook. 

We’ve got some favourable synoptic charts on the boil for next week, thanks to the interaction between a coastal trough, a large, stationary high in the Tasman Sea and a broad region of low pressure through the eastern Coral Sea into the Tropical South Pacific (from about New Caledonia through Fijian longitudes). 

This is expected to slowly develop a wide easterly fetch that looks like generating solid surf for northern regions over the Easter break.

Prior to this, we’ll see a small early/mid-week increase in E’ly swell from a minor but related fetch in the central Tasman Sea. However the main event won’t kick in until the holiday break, and at this stage exposed beaches are looking at surf size peaking somewhere in the 4-5ft+ (smaller running down the points). 

As for Easter conditions, a persistent coastal ridge should maintain ideal conditions for the SE Qld / Far Northern NSW points, with lighter winds across the Mid North Coast favouring most breaks. 

There's also a suggestion for a small Tasman Low in our mid-range SE swell window around Good Friday and Easter Saturday too, though this may only favour Southern NSW.

More on this in Friday’s update.