South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 8th April)

Best Days: Tues: small early grovel at open beaches before the N'ly picks up. Sat/Sun: small E'ly swells in the north, small S'ly swells in Northern NSW. Light winds. Next Tues onwards: chance for some solid surf leading into the Easter break.

Recap: What a weekend of waves! Saturday was clean for most of the day with light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes, and peaky 3ft E’ly swells across most open beaches. A long period E’ly groundswell made landfall overnight, boosting surf size to around 3-5ft across most open beaches (though some bigger waves were reported across the Mid North Coast), and early glassy conditions gave way to freshening N/NE breezes from about lunchtime onwards. Today has seen the E’ly swell ease back to around 3ft for the morning session, and we saw a short period off light offshore winds ahead of developing N/NE breezes that have been a little stronger than yesterday. 

Three frames of Coolum looking pretty tidy late this morning

This week (April 9 - 12)

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Tuesday’s conditions will be similar to today, with early light NW winds picking up from the north as a front approaches from the south. Wave heights will however be smaller and weaker, with slow, inconsistent 2ft+ sets at exposed beaches your best option for an early paddle, preferably inside a northern corner. It’ll become quite wind affected from mid-late morning onwards too. Don’t get your hopes up for anything amazing.

A strong southerly change will rocket up the NSW Coast on Tuesday, nosing into the Mid North Coast into the evening, reaching the border within an hour or so of dawn on Wednesday. A healthy fetch trailing the change will generate a strong short range S’ly swell throughout the day, though lingering S’ly winds across Northern NSW will affect wave quality at exposed beaches. We’ll see a peak in average surf around 4ft+ at south swell magnets but much smaller surf elsewhere due to the low period and steep southerly direction.

Across SE Qld, a small lift in size will occur throughout the day but no major size is expected. Exposed northern end may see wind affected 2ft+ surf but the points will be much smaller with a small combo of south swell and residual E’ly swell. Again, don’t get too excited. 

The ridge will remain across the SE Qld for the rest of the week and will broaden into the Northern Tasman Sea so we’ll see a small increase in ordinary mid-range SE swell on Thursday, easing Friday. Exposed beaches north from Byron may pick up low quality 2-3ft sets but the points handling these winds will be smaller (1-2ft) and not really that special. 

Across Northern NSW, expect easing southerly swells and similar winds though lighter in strength, with periods of early SW breezes. I wouldn’t be calling in any flexi-time, that’s for sure. 

This weekend (April 13 - 14)

An improvement is expected over the weekend, mainly due to the influence of a weak coastal trough, which should bring about a period of light variable winds to most coasts. 

As for surf, SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should continue to see small levels of trade swell from the anchored ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea. Exposed beaches should pull in occasional 2-3ft sets but it’ll be smaller running down the outer points. I don’t think it’ll be terribly exiting but there’ll be waves.

This small trade swell will become smaller with increasing southerly latitude, but we’ll also see a couple of small southerly groundswells glance the south swell magnets south from Byron. They will have been generated by migrating polar lows along the ice shelf (below the continent), on the periphery of our acute south swell window during this week. Ordinarily we’d see very little surf from these sources but I think south swell magnets should be in a position to pull in occasional 2ft, almost 2-3ft sets if we’re lucky. 

Elsewhere, at beaches without good southerly exposure, surf size will be very small indeed.


Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.

Next week (April 15 onwards)

Looks like a broad trough spanning much of the western Tasman Sea over the weekend will evolve into a juicy swell generating system early next week as a high pressure system develops to the east and south. This suggests a building E’ly swell from about Tuesday onwards that could become quite large mid-late week (i.e. into the Easter break) as developments in the Northern Tasman Sea receive a tropical injection, that could supercharge the stationary fetch. 

More on this in Wednesday’s outlook.