South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th March)

Best Days: Thurs: fun small waves across outer points in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, easing into Fri. Building S'ly swell across Northern NSW on Thurs, holding early Fri then easing. Sat/Sun: small E'ly swell with winds slowly clocking NW Sat, then SW into Sun. Sun: chance for a solid though brief spike of S'ly swell in Northern NSW. Tues onwards: solid S'ly swell in Northern NSW, and a decent E'ly swell across all coasts too.

Recap: A very small mix of swells persisted across all coasts on Tuesday, but today has seen a combination of new S’ly swell across Northern NSW, and short range E/SE swell from a local trough in the southern Coral Sea, that’s favouring SE Qld and Far Northern NSW coasts with 2-3ft sets. Winds have freshened from the south today in response to the trough.

This week (Mar 28 - 29)

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The source of today’s local E/SE swell in the north sits between a trough in the southern Coral Sea, and a Tasman high pressure system. It’s not a particular wide nor strong fetch, but it does stretch from the Gold Coast across the Northern Tasman Sea to the northern tip of New Zealand, which is (momentarily) impressive.

However, it will weaken into Thursday so we’ll see the most size on Thursday morning before wave heights gradually ease. 

As per today, the biggest waves will be found at exposed beaches in Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with smaller surf running along the points, though they’ll be cleanest with fresh S’ly tending S/SE winds. Expect bumpy 3-4ft sets at exposed beaches, smaller but cleaner elsewhere. 

South from Yamba, wave heights will be smaller from this source and local winds will be a little lighter though still out of the same direction (S'ly tending SE).

However, we’ll see another bigger swell in the water, at coastlines south from Byron Bay.

Today’s new south swell was the first in a series of southerly swell events (two of 'em!) that are expected to provide waves for the NSW coast. The second will build across Northern NSW into Thursday - note, there may be a lag on the arrival of this swell, especially in the Far North - but it’ll be bigger than what we saw today, as it will have been generated by a better phase of the (significant) Southern Ocean low as it moved out from underneath Tasmania’s swell shadow. 

Still, the direction will be quite steep so we’ll see a wide range in wave heights - around 3-5ft at south swell magnets south of Byron, much smaller elsewhere, and inconsistent because it'll be glancing the region.

Wave heights should hold into Friday morning but will then steadily ease throughout the day. 

Elsewhere on Friday, we’ll see a small level of easing E/SE swell from the Tasman fetch, from 2-3ft to 2ft at exposed beaches, smaller along the outer points. 

Winds should become light and variable across most coasts on Friday though there’s a risk of freshening NE winds (mainly in the south) into the afternoon.  

This weekend (Mar 30 - 31)

Saturday looks small and windy with strengthening N’ly tending NW winds as an intense Tasman Low develops off the Southern NSW Coast. 

Although the swells from Thurs/Fri will be almost completely gone by this time, we’ll have a small pulse of distant E’ly swell in the water at exposed beaches, generated by a modest fetch NE of New Zealand at the moment. There’ll be long breaks between the sets, but we should see occasional 2ft+ waves at most open beaches. It's not worth getting too excited about though.

The models have really ramped up the strength of the developing Tasman Low in recent days, and although it will move quickly to the east, there’s a suggestion for 50kt core winds overnight Saturday (east from Eden) which could generate a brief but powerful south swell for some exposed parts of the NSW coast on Sunday.

However the proximity of this recently upgraded low to the mainland - much of which may lie inside the partial swell shadow offered by the Hunter curve - does give me pause on this event, especially north from Seal Rocks. Very minor changes in the position or strength of the low could result in a considerable drop (or increase!) in size. 

So, let’s be cautious for now: as a bare minimum, we can expect a solid pulse of S’ly swell at south swell magnets south of Byron, at some point on Sunday, with fresh SW tending S’ly winds (and SE north of the border). 

Elsewhere, expect small residual E’ly swell to pad out the open beaches on Sunday with peaky waves. 

Next week (April 1 onwards)

Sunday’s south swell will ease steadily into Monday.

A powerful polar low associated with Sunday’s development (well south of Tasmania - see chart below) will rocket through our distant south swell window over the weekend, setting up a solid long period groundswell for Northern NSW from late Monday (Lower Mid North Coast) through Tuesday and Wednesday. South facing beaches south of Byron are likely to see set waves anywhere between 4ft and maybe 6ft if we’re super lucky. I'll revise this in Friday's notes. 

Prior to this, a developing tropical low south of Fiji over the coming days will reach peak intensity N/NE of New Zealand on Saturday and Sunday, generating a quality though inconsistent E’ly groundswell that’s due to provide a peak in size around 3-4ft+ at exposed beaches from around late Monday or (more likely) Tuesday onwards, peaking into Wednesday then easing slowly from Thursday.

More on this in Friday’s notes.