South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 30th January)

Best Days: Plenty of fun waves every day. Looking best Sunday onwards as the trades really kick into gear. 

Recap: It’s been a bit slow going for the last few days. Monday’s S’ly swell eased across Northern NSW on Tuesday, and the small rise in E’ly swell across remaining regions over the last 36 hours has been a little slower than anticipated. However conditions have been generally pretty good with light variable winds and sea breezes, the only exception being the Mid North Coast where we’re entrenched in a persistent N’ly tending NE airstream, that’s been pretty gusty through the afternoons. A small long period S’ly groundswell is glancing the Southern NSW cast today but it’s not expected to make much of an impact across Northern NSW. 

This week (Jan 29 - Feb 1)

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I gotta admit, I’m a little concerned by the slow upwards trend in easterly swell. Closely watching the surfcams, there’s been the odd 2-3ft set at some reliable swell magnets (like D’Bah) but what’s more distinct is the lack of consistency and push we usually see with mid-range trade swell events. It just doesn’t seem to have the same oomph we are used to.

Looking at the revised model data, and I also think that, on Monday, I may have been overly excited at finally seeing a return to a synoptic summer pattern. Whilst the trade flow is broad, it’s not especially strong. Now, that’s not always a bad thing (we can see good swells from just 20-25kts of breeze, if it's broad enough and sustained for a few days). However, the models indicate that wind strengths are closer to the bottom end of that range, which reduces confidence in my earlier size estimates. 

As such, I’m scaling down Monday’s forecast a little, and also reducing the confidence that Thursday’s peak in size will persist throughout Friday.

I’m anticipating surf size to be biggest between Byron and the Sunshine Coast, specifically open beaches (smaller along the points), building from an inconsistent, peaky 2-3ft on Thursday morning to 3ft+ in the afternoon. Expect smaller waves south of Ballina.

On Friday, we should see size persisting around an inconsistent 2-3ft+ at these same coasts, though a slight easing trend may occur throughout the day. Again, expect smaller surf south from Ballina. 

Local winds look good north from Yamba both days, mainly light and variable with sea breezes. The Mid North Coast will see persistent N’ly tending NE winds on Thursday, but an approaching-then-stalling S’ly change will push a trough across the region on Friday, resulting in light variable winds and sea breezes. 

We’ll also see a building S/SE tending SE swell across the Mid North Coast (mainly the lower region) into Friday, thanks to a fetch trailing the southerly change, with size probably up around the 3ft mark. Smaller surf is expected north of Coffs Harbour from this direction, though we’ll see a broader coverage of SE swell from this source into the weekend.

Lastly, the small flukey long period S’ly swell in Southern NSW today probably won’t do much in Northern NSW on Thursday but small lines are possible at a handful of south swell magnets.

This weekend (Feb 2 - 3)

Rebuilding trades through the lower Coral Sea will increase E’ly swells across all regions over the weekend.

Because this swell source will be a little closer to the coast, we should see a little more size than what’s expected over the next few days. As such, SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should build from 2-3ft Saturday to 3-4ft by Sunday (smaller running along the points). Wave heights will again be smaller south from Ballina or Yamba. 

Fortunately, the latest model runs have weakened the strength of the ridge adjacent the coast so we’re looking at a mainly moderate E/SE flow north from Ballina (possibly light S’ly early in a few spots, i.e. Southern Gold Coast), with even lighter synoptic winds and sea breezes across the Mid North Coast (huh?!). 

Also worth mentioning for the end of the weekend is the possibility for a small long period S/SE swell to glance the coast, generated by an intense Southern Ocean low forming SE of Tasmania into Friday.

It will unfortunately develop on the periphery of our swell window (and will also track away from us at the same time), delivering very large surf for New Zealand but we'll see just a fraction of the energy reaching our shores (likely much smaller than the pre-existing E’ly swell).

Next week (Feb 4 onwards)

By and large, our easterly swell window will remain active with broad trades through most of next week, so we’ll see an extended run of E’ly swell for the entire long term period into next weekend and beyond.

Expect size to fluctuate somewhere between 3ft and occasionally 4ft at exposed beaches between Ballina and the Sunshine Coast (smaller running down the points). Wave heights will be smaller across the Mid North Coast from this source. 

Sunday's late arrival of small glancing S/SE swell will persist (if it shows at all) into Monday morning and then ease into the afternoon.

Elsewhere, and second ridge will build through the Central Tasman mid-week, generating an E’ly swell for Southern NSW that’ll provide solid 3-4ft surf across the Lower Mid North Coast but smaller waves north from Coffs. Driving frontal systems below the mid-week ridge will supply small S’ly swell for Northern NSW late in the week too.

Elsewhere, and I’m still keeping a close eye on the tropics, where monsoonal activity will push through the Coral Sea into the South Pacific, and likely result in a couple of tropical lows (and maybe tropical cyclones). There’s nothing specific showing at the moment but it’ll be worth closely monitoring over the coming days.