South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd January)

Best Days: Friday morning across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, before the wind picks up. Small but clean S'ly swell. Late Sunday (Mid North Coast) and early Monday (remaining Northern NSW coasts) inside sheltered northern corners, with a small long period S/SE swell, though winds will be up form the north.

Recap: Nah, there’s been nothing of any interest. A small E’ly swell in SE Qld but otherwise tiny surf and problematic winds. 

This week (Jan 24 - 25)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

A weak trough pushing up the Southern NSW coast will stall over the Mid North Coast tonight, temporarily disrupting the northerly airstream across our region.

We’ll still see a northerly flow in the north, though it’ll be much lighter in strength than today. To the south, variable winds will envelop parts of Northern NSW, with moderate southerly tending variable winds in the southern region (south of Coffs Harbour).

This is all a moot point with very little swell on the cards for Thursday, just small residual E/NE swell in SE Qld and tiny leftovers in Northern NSW.

Friday morning is probably your best window for a wave, though you’ll have to surf early to beat a developing N’ly tending NE breeze into the afternoon.

I’m not expecting much, if any new swell in SE Qld (just a continuation of meagre E/NE energy from a modest trade flow in the Coral Sea this week), however Northern NSW will pick up a small S’ly swell from a broad front associated with today’s advancing trough.

The front has pushed through the lower Tasman Sea, generating a southerly swell that’ll slowly build 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches (south of Byron). The sets will be inconsistent, and surf size will be smaller from this source at beaches not open to the south. We won't see much, if anything in SE Qld.

Also worth mentioning is a small but reasonable E/SE fetch developing between the trough and a small high pressure ridge extending east from Tasmania on Thursday. This will generate peaky E/SE swells into Friday, though mainly across Southern NSW. Wave heights will become smaller as you head further north, so I can’t see much energy impacting anywhere north from Coffs, but to the south (i.e. lower Mid North Coast) there may be a couple of feet of peaky energy in the mix. 

Small fleeting sets are also possible out of the east later Friday from a small sub tropical low NE of New Zealand, but the fetch length is too short and it’s too far away from the mainland to make much of an impact on our region (see chart below).

This weekend (Jan 26 - 27)

Looks like a pretty ordinary weekend of waves ahead. 

The trades will slowly redevelop in the lower Coral Sea and this will gradually build E/NE swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, but no great size is expected. We may see some small, faint E'ly swell from the sub-tropical low NE of New Zealand, but I still don't think there'll be much size in it.

Worse, a stationary high in the Tasman Sea will freshen (in the north) and strengthen (in the south) northerly winds both days. As such options will be limited to a handful of sheltered northern corners. 

There is one swell worth keeping an eye out for though, across Northern NSW on Sunday afternoon. An intense polar low off the ice shelf well south of New Zealand is generating a new long period S/SE swell that should reach the Mid North Coast around lunchtime and build into the afternoon.

Satellite images have confirmed 50kt+ winds at its core in the last twenty four hours, aimed nicely into Northern NSW’s swell window (though a long way from the mainland), so we can now be a little more confident on its arrival. Model guidance is holding steady with its estimates (from Monday, see below), though it’s shunted back the timing a few hours, which points to a peak in size overnight Sunday, though the more southern regions (lower Mid North Coast) could see very late afternoon sets in the 3ft+ range if we’re lucky. Let’s fine tune the outlook in Friday’s notes. However, I’m not confident on an arrival in the Far North before the sun goes down (and its direction will be pretty acute for SE Qld too).

Next week (Jan 28 onwards)

Still nothing amazing to get excited about. 

Model guidance maintains fresh northerly winds across the Mid North Coast from Monday thru’ Thursday (ouch!) with moderate NE winds about SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. So any swell we see in the region will be accompanied with below-average conditions. 

As for surf, there is a suggestion that the trades are about to reactivate through the northern Tasman and lower Coral Sea early in the week, which suggests a spell of trade swells mid-late next week and beyond. 

More on this in Friday’s update.