South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 26th December)

Best Days: Entire period: extended run of trade swell, biggest Sun/Mon/Tues.

Recap: There’s been plenty of E/SE thru’ SE swell over the last few days, holding 4ft across exposed Northern NSW beaches, with smaller surf to 2-3ft across exposed SE Qld beaches and up to 2ft on the points, though very inconsistent at times. Winds have been light and variable in the mornings, tending onshore during the day. 

A few OK (and empty!) waves at Currumbin early this morning

This week (Dec 27 - 28)

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The current E/SE swell (more SE through SE Qld) will ease steadily through Thursday. 

However, we have plenty of new E’ly swell on the way.

A stationary high pressure system in the Tasman Sea extends a ridge into the Coral Sea, and it’s expected to broaden and lengthen over the coming days, stretching way out into the South Pacific by the weekend, which will ensure a continual supply of trade swell through much of next week.

Initially, Thursday may be a little undersized - especially across SE Qld where the existing (and easing) SE swell is smallest - but we’ll see a slow increase throughout the day, and further into Friday by which time we should see 3ft sets across the Sunshine Coast into the afternoon, up to 2-3ft across the Gold and Tweed Coasts and then slightly smaller surf as you head south from Byron Bay.

Thursday morning may deliver some leftover 2-3ft sets across exposed Northern NSW beaches early on (south from Byron), but it’ll be a downwards trend by lunchtime. So make the most of the early session for the most size as it may provide the better waves of the next few days, thanks to the developing trade swell being smaller in the south.

As for winds, the position of the high pressure system is expected to result in a mainly E’ly airstream across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with more of a NE flow across the Mid North Coast. 

No major strength is expected north from Yamba to the Gold Coast, but there is a chance that the afternoon onshore flow may be slightly enhanced across the Sunshine Coast - though early morning will see light variable winds as per everywhere else. 

South of Yamba, and it’s likely we’ll see a similar pattern across the Mid North Coast as we saw today, which is moderate to fresh N/NE tending NE winds for much of the day. There’s a chance for brief windows of lighter NW winds early morning, so make the most of that in this region. 

This weekend (Dec 29 - 30)

As the existing stationary high pressure system broadens the trade flow over the coming days, we’ll see E’ly swells reach a peak later in the weekend and into early next week.

Size will build steadily through Saturday and by Sunday should be approaching 3-5ft across the open Sunshine Coast beaches, with 3-4ft+ surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, grading to 3-4ft down to Yamba and then 3ft+ across the Mid North Coast. Expect smaller waves running down the points.

Local winds look to retain the same patten anticipated for later this week; light and variable tending moderate E’ly from Yamba through to the Gold Coast with slightly stronger afternoon E’lies across the Sunshine Coast.

South from Yamba along the Mid North Coast, N/NE winds will become moderate to fresh at times, though early morning should still present brief windows of lighter winds. 

Next week (Dec 31 onwards)

It looks like the weekend’s E’ly swells from the broad Coral Sea/South Pacific ridge will persist through Monday and Tuesday before easing slightly into Wednesday. However trade swell energy should hang around all week and into the weekend in some shape or form, which is great news. 

Additionally, it looks like we’ll see similar wind patterns holding steady across the region all week - best suited to Far Northern NSW and SE Qld (including the Sunshine Coast this time ‘round!) but the latest model guidance indicates the moderate to fresh N/NE pattern pay persist about the Mid North Coast until next Thursday. Sorry!

Elsewhere, and a series of migrating low pressure systems in the Southern Ocean look poorly aligned for our region so at the moment, I’m not expecting any south swell throughout the forecast period (short, medium or long term).

Also worth mentioning at this point is an active phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) across the top end of the country. This is expected to result in the development of one or two (or more!) Tropical Cyclones in the Coral Sea and South Pacific next week. Of course, this is a very long time away, and in most cases these cyclones tend to push SE with the broad scale pattern, perpendicular through the swell window, which is not always conducive for favourable swell setups.

It’s much more common than the tail end of these slow moving MJO patterns see better positioned tropical depressions and cyclones, so whilst the synoptics are likely to look very busy through the first week of the New Year, my hunch is that it may be another week or so until we see a significant system develop in a position to generate a major swell event for our region.

Or course, this doesn’t negate the fact that the presence of MJO activity next week will enhance the trade flow to the south - in our immediate E’ly swell window - so regardless, the surf outlook for the first two weeks of 2019 is very positive, with stacks of swell on the way. 

More in Friday’s update!

PS: the image below shows computer model output for next Thursday.. that's seven potential tropical cyclones - or tropical depressions - plus a small sub-tropical low in the South Pacific below Tahiti.. this specific scenario won't eventuate, but it certainly suggests we're in for a very active period in the tropics.