South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 3rd December)

Best Days: Late Tues/Wed: building S'ly swell across Northern NSW, small N'ly swell in SE Qld: Thurs onwards: extended period of punchy trade swell, best suited to for the outer/semi-exposed points. 

Recap: S/SE swell eased steadily over the weekend. Early morning managed 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, with much smaller surf elsewhere. Sunday saw very small surf and freshening N’ly winds, that generated a small peaky windswell for this morning across exposed beaches, up to 2ft+ across the Southern Gold Coast though generally smaller at most open beaches. We’ve seen a building S’ly swell throughout the day that’s punched a little higher than expected (also arriving earlier than forecast). South facing beaches south of Byron have seen occasional 3-4ft sets throughout the day, with smaller surf elsewhere. Most of SE Qld hasn’t seen much size but D’Bah’s pushed up into the 2ft+ range. 

N'ly lines at D'Bah this morning

Small N'ly energy at Sunshine Beach 

This week (Dec 4 - 7)

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So, today’s south swell was locally generated and will ease into Tuesday. This trend is already playing out across Southern NSW. Model data suggests we may see a brief N’ly flow tending W’ly (Mid North Coast) with light varibale winds elsewhere, ahead of the next S’ly change that’s due into the Lower Mid North Coast early-mid morning, before SE winds spread across remaining coast into the afternoon as a trough develops off the SE Qld coast. 

A fresh southerly swell is expected to reach the Mid North Coast mid-afternoon, generated by a strong front pushing across the Tasmanian region today that will generate a couple of south swells for the next few days. 

There are two seperate swell sources around this system: an initial W’ly tending W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait, and then the broader SW frontal airstream rounding the Tasmanian corner. This should rebuild south facing beaches (south of Coffs) back up until the 3-4ft late Tuesday, spreading to remaining Northern NSW coasts overnight into Wednesday. 

Wednesday will see mainly moderate to fresh SE winds across most regions, though early SW winds are possible in a few regions. Winds will be lighter south from Coffs. As such the points will have the best conditions.

Now, these minor S’ly swells are all well and good, but how about the possible N’ly swell from TC Owen?

It’s a tricky system to have confidence in. Friday’s notes discussed its slow moving nature, that was favourable for swell generation, and it does have a slight southward track - however in contrast to similarly positioned systems that have generated unusual N’ly swells for SE Qld (i.e. TC Debbie), TC Owen is much smaller in size, with a shorter fetch length. Model guidance does look promising but I’m wary that the best fetch around this system will be on its southern flank, aimed into the Far Northern Qld coast.

Over the weekend, the models weakened their guidance a little, and after further investigation comparing analogous swell events, I’m pulling back my expectations for this swell. We also don't have any solid satellite data to work with right now either, which also reduces confidence.

The trend will remain the same as mentioned on Friday - building slowly through Tuesday, reaching a peak some time on Wednesday, easing from late Wednesday onwards. This swell will likely bypass most locations, but a handful of exposed north-facing locations could see very inconsistent (though ultimately unreliable) 2ft+ sets through Wednesday. I would be very reluctant to clock up any highway miles chasing surf from this system though, it just doesn’t look consistent enough right now.

The rest of the week will then see a standard summer pattern with trades locked in across the Coral Sea, generating building E/SE swells with accompanying SE tending E/SE winds. Wave heights should build through Thursday, peaking Friday (and over the weekend) with 3-5ft surf expected across open Sunshine Coast beaches (smaller across the points) by the end of the week, then 3-4ft across the Gold and Tweed Coasts, and smaller surf as you track south from Byron. These conditions will really only favour the semi-exposed points. 

This weekend (Dec 8 - 9)

We’ve got a whole weekend of summery trade swell across the coast. We’ll see moderate to fresh SE tending E/SE winds north from Byron, though E/NE tending NE winds are likely south from Coffs (light winds tending E’ly between the two). 

Wave heights should persist in a similar size range as per late Friday (3-5ft Sunshine Coast, 3-4ft Gold/Tweed Coast, smaller south from Byron), with smaller surf inside sheltered locations. So, it’s looking like an active weekend across the outer/semi-exposed points. 

Next week (Dec 10 onwards)

Nothing of any significant standing out in the forecast charts long range at this stage. However there is a broad system expected to develop north of New Zealand from next weekend onwards that could be a source for long range E’ly swell into the long term. I’ll take another look on Wednesday.