South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th November)

Best Days: Thurs: Large, flukey S'ly swell in Northern NSW, tricky winds south of Yamba but could be options north. Only small surf size in SE Qld due to the direction. Fri: better winds with little more size in SE Qld (still small across the outer points), still large though easing in Northern NSW. Sat: clean morning conditions with easing S/SE swells across all coasts (small in SE Qld). Next Tues/Wed onwards: Building trade swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. Also, there's a chance for a small, rare N'ly cyclone swell in SE Qld. 

Recap: Tuesday delivery some fun waves up around 3ft across the northern ends of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, with smaller surf along the outer points around 1-2ft.  Northern NSW delivered bigger surf as is usual under S’ly swell regimes, around 4ft. Size eased back quite a bit through the day and has bottomed out today, with freshening N’ly winds. We’re still on track for a building N’ly windswell throughout the day and a very late W’ly change - so the expected window of peaky beaches this evening is still well and truly on the cards.

This week (Nov 29 - 30)

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The synoptics are pretty dynamic. We’ve got a rapidly deepening low off the Central NSW Coast that’s expected to deliver 40-50kt winds today, and in the process generate a hefty short range south swell for Northern NSW.

The northerly windswell building today will reach a peak sometime overnight, however the westerly change that’s due late afternoon will essentially signal a realignment of the northerly fetch outside our swell window, and surf size will subsequently drop rather quickly (if you're watching the local wave buoys, expect size to plummet from about early-mid evening onwards). We may see a few small leftover waves at exposed north facing beaches early Thursday (mainly around the Gold/Tweed Coasts) but I don’t think there’ll be much in it.

On the other hand, Northern NSW will see a larger, directional south swell build across the coast into Thursday.

The poor alignment of the fetch and the position of the low will (1) create a very large range in wave heights between exposed south swell magnets - south of Byron - and sheltered spots, and (2) concentrate the largest surf across the Mid North Coast. But, it’s a moot point with these regions expected to be under the influence of strong to gale force SW tending S/SW winds. Only sheltered spots will be rideable and they’ll be much smaller.

For the record we could see anywhere between 6ft and maybe 8ft at those swell magnets (much smaller elsewhere) but I’m really not expecting a lot of swell to wrap around Cape Byron into SE Qld coasts. At least not until Friday when a secondary fetch around the Tasman Low comes into play.

The strongest winds across the coastal margin will probably be located south from Yamba, so there is a chance that some semi-exposed points across the Northern Rivers could see good conditions and a respectable level of swell, but it’s not a high percentage event - I'd be reluctant to rack any major mileage chasing waves on Thursday.

If you’re in SE Qld, surf size is expected to be only small across the outer points (tiny early, building to 1-2ft late in the day), with bigger waves at exposed northern ends pushing 3ft.

The low will remain slow moving on Thursday so we’ll see size hold steady across Northern NSW through Friday morning, easing later, and the SE Qld region should see a little more push with occasional 2ft+ waves across the outer points, pushing 3-4ft+ at exposed northern ends. It’ll be very inconsistent though.



Conditions will be much better regionally on Friday as the low draws away from the coast, offering light offshore winds in SE Qld down to about Yamba, with locations south from here seeing moderate SW winds tending S’ly. Protected spots across Northern NSW should see a slightly larger percentage of size compared to Thursday, when the south swell is expected to be more directional.

This weekend (Dec 1 - 2)

Saturday is your day, as we’re expecting N’ly winds to freshen though Sunday, and they’ll reduce the only surfable options to sheltered northern corners. 

The Tasman Low will gradually rotate out to our swell window from Friday onwards, and this will lead to a slow but steady easing trend throughout the weekend. Therefore, Saturday morning will see the most size and best conditions with light offshore winds across all coasts, ahead of moderate afternoon sea breezes.

South facing beaches in Northern NSW should see 4-5ft sets early on, easing to around 3ft during the day, with smaller waves at remaining beaches. Across SE Qld the outer points will be very small by Saturday but exposed northern ends may see a few stray 2-3ft sets if we’re lucky (smaller later).

Easing size into Sunday will be accompanied by gusty N’ly winds at times, so make the most of the early surf on Saturday.

Next week (Dec 3 onwards)

Persistent locally N’ly winds off the SE Qld coast from Sunday through Monday has the potential to generate small N’ly windswells for a few exposed beaches early next week. However no great size or strength is expected.

Elsewhere, and a shallow S’ly change due up the Northern NSW coast early Monday won’t have much of a trailing fetch - so therefore little swell potential - however a series of stronger secondary fronts trailing behind will generate a couple of days of small to moderate southerly swell for Northern NSW through the middle of next week.

A trough is expected to form off the SE Qld coast in the wake of Monday's change - strengthening a moderate E'ly fetch out into the South Pacific and generating fun trade swells for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW from later Tuesday through Wednesaday and Thursday. We should see around 3ft of reasonable surf from this source.

I’ll also be keeping a close eye on a Tropical Cyclone that’s forecast to develop in the Far Northern Coral Sea early next week. Although early indications suggest a short fetch length - and a very large distance between it and the SE Qld coast - it is forecast to remain slow moving under a weak steering environment. This increases the chance for some small, inconsistent but unusual N’ly groundswell for the Gold and Sunshine Coasts around the middle to latter part of next week.

More on this in Friday’s notes.