South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 26th November)

Best Days: Tues: light morning winds and strong though easing S/SE swells in Northern NSW, with fun smaller waves in SE Qld. Wed: poor conditions through the morning, but keep an eye out for a late W'ly change and a peaky mix of S/SE and N'ly swells. Thurs/Fri: large S'ly swell, though much smaller in SE Qld (best suited to outer GC points). Sat: early light winds and easing S/SE swells. 

Recap: What a weekend! Though, it’s been either zero or hero across the broader region. Despite my inability to surf (see the ongoing thread re: skin cancer), I spent both days on the Mid North Coast where I watched the southerly swell build from 1ft at dawn on Saturday to 3ft by mid-morning, then 4-6ft from late morning through the afternoon (the sea breeze kicked in around noon). It was a strong, powerful event with long lines of quality groundswell lighting up many offshore bombies too. However, not all locations picked up this swell - SE Qld was essentially flat, and even the Northern Rivers didn’t see much size at all. A second southerly swell provided 4-5ft+ waves through Sunday, with early light offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes in the south, and freshening northerly winds across SE Qld (where surf size remained tiny). However some late 4ft sets were observed on the Tweed Coast. Today we’ve seen less favourable conditions as the Tasman Low - responsible for the weekend’s waves - pushed closer to the region, delivering gusty southerlies. We’ve seen similarly strong southerly swells through Northern NSW around 4-6ft, but whilst most SE Qld coasts have remained tiny, exposed northern ends and south swell magnets have picked up occasional 2ft+ sets (see below). 

Monday morning lines at D'Bah

Monday lunchtime lines at Sunshine Beach

This week (Nov 27 - 30)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

The weekend's Tasman Low is now exiting our swell window so we’re likely to see slowly easing wave heights through Tuesday. However the early session should still remain quite solid across Northern NSW with occasional 4-6ft sets at south swell magnets (south of Byron), though much smaller elsewhere at beaches not open to the south. Smaller surf will trend through the afternoon.

Today’s position of the Tasman Low is probably the best it’s going to get for SE Qld, and we should see a better round of surf filling in later today, and overnight into Tuesday, albeit still on the small side. The outer points should manage very inconsistent 2ft sets, with larger 3ft, almost 3-4ft waves at exposed northern ends. Wave heights will ease into the afternoon. Between sets there'll be lengthy periods of tiny to flat conditions north of the border.

All coasts will see early light winds and thus clean conditions, through it’s a fair expectation that exposed beaches in Northern NSW would see a residual wobble from today’s winds. Freshening N/NE winds are expected from lunchtime onwards so the only window of opportunity will be early morning. Don’t waste it! 

Wednesday morning will see poor conditions under the influence of fresh northerly winds across all coasts. They’ll generate some local windswell, and in fact some exposed regions of the SE Qld region (mainly southern Gold Coast) and the Tweed and Byron Coasts may pick up late 2-3ft sets. 

And, with a trough expected to push across the coast we’re looking at a fresh W’ly change mid-late afternoon across all regions. So, it will be worth scheduling in a late session at any one of the beaches, as there’ll be a peaky mix of building N’ly windswell and easing S/SE swell. There’ll also be a small level of poorly aligned E/SE swell spreading from two sources off New Zealand’s South Island (today) but it will be smaller than the there swell trains.

The rest of the week looks very tricky. Wednesday’s northerlies will be related to an evolving Tasman Low off the Central NSW coast, and this will generate a large short range southerly swell for Thursday that should push north of 6-8ft at exposed south facing beaches south of Byron. However, winds will be quite strong out of the south so only protected southern corners and sheltered points will be worthwhile - and they’ll be a lot smaller. 

Across SE Qld, this swell will lose a significant percentage of size due to the swell direction but it’s shaping up to be a major event, so it’s likely we’ll see plenty of waves for the outer points. Let’s ballpark a peak in size around 3ft at this stage and take a closer look on Wednesday as we’ll be very close to the evolution of this system. 

Whatever south swell makes landfall on Thursday will ease slowly through Friday, along with moderating winds from the southern quadrant (SW earlier). This suggests another day best suited to protected southern corners and sheltered points, and also the SE Qld outer points with size in and around the 2-3ft mark.

This weekend (Dec 1 - 2)

The synoptic charts suggest the Tasman Low will linger in the region into the weekend, though it may focus its primary fetches away from our swell windows (the southerly fetch on its western flank towards Fiji, and the easterly fetch on its southern flank towards Southern NSW).

Therefore, current expectations are for a gradual easing in S/SE swell over the weekend, though there should be enough for some small runners on the points on Saturday (inconsistent 1-2ft), easing Sunday. Northern NSW’s open beaches should still see plenty of solid surf Saturday (say 4-5ft sets at south swell magnets in the morning). 

The main concern this weekend is a possible N’ly breeze on Sunday, so if you’re looking to lock in one day of waves, I’d aim for Saturday based on current information.

I’ll firm up the specifics in Wednesday’s notes. 

Next week (Dec 3 onwards)

A series of complex lows traversing the south-eastern corner of the country, generating solid southerly swells through the middle of next week for Northern NSW. Certainly another active period of waves ahead!