South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 23rd November)

Best Days: Sat/Sun/Mon: building S'ly swells in Northern NSW, biggest Sunday (very small in SE Qld). Good morning winds for the beaches, south from Ballina. Sun will see N'lies develop north from Byron, then variable Mon with a poss N'ly windswell. Tues/Wed: easing S'ly swells but freshening N'lies. Fri onwards: more punchy S'ly swell. 

Recap: Thursday saw SE swells provide very inconsistent but super fun 3-4ft waves across exposed beaches in Northern NSW (south of Byron), though surf size was much smaller north from Byron, especially across SE Qld. We did however see N’ly windswells in the 2ft range for most of the day here though. Thursday’s SE swell eased a little earlier than expected, with this morning down to an inconsistent 3ft, before easing further throughout the day. Conditions have been generally clean with offshore winds though sea breezes have cropped up in some regions - Cape Byron saw 90mins of N/NE winds around lunchtime today, following morning NW breezes that have since returned to the W/NW this afternoon.

Easing SE swells in Coffs this morning

Small late Friday lines at Cabarita

This weekend (Nov 24 - 25)

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Today’s fresh offshore winds are associated with a deepening Tasman Low that’s expected to meander slowly through the western Tasman Sea for the next few days, and will deliver an extended period of short range south swell to our coast, mainly favouring Northern NSW.

A brief fetch of 40-50kt W/SW winds exiting eastern Bass Strait this morning will provide a temporary flush of flukey south swell to south swell magnets south of Byron at some point on Saturday, but if we ignore this energy for the time being, the swell trend originating from the Tasman Low proper will build slowly from Saturday morning towards a peak later Sunday, holding into Monday morning.

Therefore, Saturday’s size is a little tricky to estimate, because the first swell source is very flukey and probably won’t favour much more than a handful of south swell magnets - whereas the building S’ly swells thereafter will be less acute in direction, and will favour more breaks (though, with a broad range of size as per the swell direction). I'm not particularly confident on the timing either.

The reason this distinction is important is because Sunday will see developing N’ly winds across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW as a surface trough moves across the region. This will probably affect locations down to about Byron and Ballina, though we’ll see a period of W’ly winds early morning. 

Elsewhere (i.e. south from Ballina), we’re looking at moderate W’ly winds and sea breezes both days. 

As for size out of the south: Saturday’s initial flukey southerly swell won’t do much for most beaches but south swell magnets south of Byron should see occasional 3-4ft+ sets at times (this is a low percentage event, so keep your expectations in check). Expected smaller surf elsewhere and very little across SE Qld. It's likely this energy will bypass many locations.

The new S’ly swell from the Tasman Low may start to show across the Mid North Coast later Saturday, but should push into the 4-6ft range through Sunday at south swell magnets south of Byron. We’ll then start to see a little more size than Saturday across protected locations in Northern NSW (3ft+), though I’m doubtful there'll be much in SE Qld away from exposed northern ends (occasional 2ft+ sets). Most open Gold and Sunshine Coast beaches will struggle to see 1ft, possibly 1-2ft waves on Sunday. 

So, it’s looking like a weekend best suited to Northern NSW, with the mornings offering the best conditions. 

Next week (Nov 26 onwards)

The Tasman Low will meander slowly through the western Tasman over the weekend and will in fact remain within our swell window for most of Monday too.

This means we’ll see continuing short range S’ly swell through Monday and Tuesday, with south swell magnets south of Byron likely to remain in the 4-5ft range (easing from Tuesday onwards). 

However, the proximity of the low to the coast means winds will be out of the S/SW (early SW periods in some spots) so exposed spots will be wind affected, and surf size will be a lot smaller at beaches and points not directly open to the south.

Across SE Qld, we’ll see only small S’ly swells as per Sunday (1ft, maybe 1-2ft open beaches, bigger at exposed northern ends) but there is a chance that Sunday’s N’ly winds will generate a brief N’ly windswell for exposed coasts, likely just the southern Gold, and Tweed Coasts, smaller across the Sunshine Coast. At this stage I think the fetch won’t be long lived enough to kick up anything meaningful but I can’t rule our occasional 2ft+ sets if we’re very lucky (again, this is a very low confidence event).

There are a couple of secondary fetches developing off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island between Sunday and Monday but at this stage they look poorly aligned for Northern NSW. So, I’ll leave them alone in these notes. 

Local winds look a little suss on Tuesday and Wednesday with strengthening northerlies as a broad surface trough crosses the eastern states, leading to a deepening Tasman Low in the southern Tasman Sea from Wednesday (W’ly winds kicking in overnight), with Thursday then seeing strengthen southerlies in our swell window, leading to a solid S’ly swell for Friday and next weekend.  

More on that in Monday’s notes. Have a great weekend!