South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 21st November)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: improving beaches as winds tend more NW, with a combo of N'ly windswell and SE groundswell, best in Northern NSW. Sat/Sun: strong building S'ly swell in Northern NSW, though only small in SE Qld. 

Recap: Tuesday morning delivered clean conditions and easing 2-3ft+ E’ly swell across exposed Northern NSW beaches (smaller in SE Qld, especially the outer points) with stacks of fun beachies. Size eased throughout the day and northerly winds developed into the afternoon. They’ve strengthened into today and we’re now seeing 3ft+ windswell across the Gold Coast. A new SE swell also appears to be nosing into the Mid North Coast, having reached Southern NSW around lunchtime and delivering 3ft sets across that region. Observations from our south-facing surfcam at Coffs shows steady new sets pushing the 2ft+ mark in the last few hours. 

Fresh SE peaks in Coffs this evening

Long whitewater line of N'ly windswell at D'Bah this afternoon

This week (Nov 22 - 23)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

An approaching surface trough from the west will maintain a broad region of N/NW winds across the lower Coral Sea into Thursday, and this will keep the N’ly windswell humming across exposed north facing locations around 2-3ft.

However, the bulk size will be found north from Ballina up through into SE Qld, with the biggest sets around the Southern Gold/Tweed Coasts, so expect smaller surf elsewhere from this source, esepcially across the Mid North Coast.

Winds are expected to gradually veer NW into Thursday, which will eventually favour most open beaches though there’ll be a risk of a little more north in the wind direction at times (mainly north from Yamba, and more likely the morning than the afternoon).

Across the Mid North Coast, Thursday should see mainly light morning winds ahead of a late freshening W’ly. Winds will tend fresh W’ly overnight into Friday across remaining coasts, so all beaches will be clean to finish the working week.

As for surf, the N’ly windswell doesn’t interest me quite as much as the incoming SE swell. 

Satellite data over the last few days has showed the responsible fetch off New Zealand’s South Island to be quite strong, and holding within our swell window for a reasonable length of time. This should favour strong, though inconsistent 3-4ft set at exposed beaches south from Byron, peaking later Thursday and early Friday before easing throughout Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately, this swell will be smaller across SE Qld, reaching an inconsistent 2ft+ at exposed northern ends with smaller surf elsewhere - so you’ll be best off maximising Thursday’s NE windswell (better still, the SE + N’ly swell combo in the afternoon). 

Early Friday morning may see some residual N’ly windswell but there won’t be much and it’ll be gone by the afternoon.

So, there’s no need to rush over the coming days - Thursday afternoon and Friday will see good conditions across the beaches, and there’ll be options across most coasts. 

This weekend (Nov 24 - 25)

Friday's SE swell will slowly ease into Saturday.

A complex low forming east of Tasmania on Thursday looks like it’ll reside just outside of our swell window to begin with. 

However, by early Saturday it's expected to take shape in the western Tasman Sea, and should deliver a strong short range south swell over the weekend, building Saturday across Northern NSW and peaking early Sunday before easing into the afternoon. However, the swell direction won’t favour SE Qld so we’ll see much smaller surf north of the border. 

Conditions look very good for both days, with mainly W/SW winds on Saturday and early Sunday, ahead of a moderate southerly change in the south on Sunday afternoon, and sea breezes in the north. 

Model guidance has been moving around quite a bit on estimate sizes and arrival times, but at this stage south facing beaches south from Byron should see a peak in the 4-6ft range, with much smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Across SE Qld, the outer points will be lucky to pick up stray 1ft, almost 1-2ft sets from this south swell, but exposed northern ends could see occasional 2-3ft waves at the height of the event. 

Let’s firm up the specifics in Friday’s notes. 

Next week (Nov 26 onwards)

A brief N’ly fetch developing off the Southern Qld coast late Sunday may kick up a small N’ly windswell for some exposed coasts Monday morning. 

Elsewhere, model guidance is suggesting we’ll see the after effects of the Tasman Low lingering through the start of next week, contributing smaller though useful SE swell to Northern NSW for a few days. However the S’ly swell from the weekend will ease rapidly through Monday so expect size to be a lot smaller. 

Looking further ahead, and we’re looking at a similar winteresque synoptic pattern mid-next week with periods of northerly winds ahead of a low developing off the East Coast of Tasmania, generating fresh southerly swells for Northern NSW during the second half of the week, and maybe next weekend too.

See you Friday!