South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 5th November)

Best Days: Tues: early morning in Northern NSW, with easing S'ly swells before the N'ly kicks in. Thurs: early morning with light winds and easing N'ly windswells ahead of a gusty S'ly change extending north throughout the day. Smaller surf in SE Qld. Fri: small waves across the outer SE Qld points. Sat: small waves at exposed beaches. 

Recap: Northerly winds created problems throughout SE Qld over the weekend, with the Sunshine Coast Airport gusting 25kts Saturday and 25-30kts Sunday (and again today). However, winds weren’t quite as strong on the Gold Coast, and although Saturday delivered gusty N’lies on Saturday throughout Northern NSW, Saturday saw lighter winds across most of the region, in fact Cape Byron was S’ly for most of the day. As for surf, we’ve seen a building E/NE swell that has held somewhere between 2ft and 3ft from Saturday afternoon through Sunday and today, plus a southerly swell that built across Northern NSW on Sunday briefly pushing north of forecast estimates (3-5ft sets in Coffs against the 3-4ft forecast), and holding in around 3-4ft today under early light winds before developing NE breezes this afternoon.

Coffs during the Monday dinnertime session, a short time ago

Next week (Nov 6 - 9)

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Southerly swell has pulsed across Southern NSW this afternoon (strong 3-4ft sets), so we can expect a little more energy persist across Northern NSW into Tuesday morning, before easing throughout the afternoon.

However, strengthening N’ly winds are going to dominate the next few days. Our surf model is calling 5-6ft surf at Coffs on Wednesday afternoon (which is a big overcall), but symptomatic of the 30kt fetch lying adjacent to the coast (see below).

In any case, Tuesday morning will be your best time to surf, with south swell magnets south of Byron expected to hold early 3ft+ sets before easing during the day. Winds should be light at this time but don’t leave it too long as they’ll kick in to gear well before lunch. 

Throughout SE Qld, we’ll see small residual trade swells (just 1-2ft) plus some N’ly windswell from a fetch that is already developing off the coast. However, locations offering protection from the wind will be smaller, and there won’t be many worthwhile options up and down the coast. It certainly won’t be worth any highway mileage. 

One of the reasons for Wednesday’s strong northerly winds is an approaching southerly change. It’s due to push across the Mid North Coast mid-late Thursday morning; ahead of it we’ll see a period of slack winds and lumpy though clean-ish conditions. With the peaky NE windswell from Wednesday expected to ease steady, early morning may offer some 3ft sets at exposed NE facing beaches, though it’ll be patchy in distribution. 

The S’ly change will arrive later across the Far North Coast, and winds will swing more NW before swinging variable, and then veering S’ly late in the day. The N’ly windswell will be a little smaller as you head north, but there’s a chance for a few north facing beaches along the southern Gold, Tweed and Byron Coasts to pick up occasional 2-3ft sets. Elsewhere (including the Sunny Coast), expect smaller surf. 

Thursday’s southerly change will also kick up some punchy short range swell into the afternoon across the Mid North Coast (and possibly late in the Far North, depending on the timing of the change), likely around 4-5ft at south facing beaches - though these locations will be hammered by accompanying southerly gales. it'll be smaller elsewhere due to the swell direction and low period.

These southerly swells will slowly ease and improve into Friday as the wavelength draws out, and local winds should throttle back from the south. There’s a chance for pocket of early SW winds, but it’s highly likely that even if this occurs, exposed spots will see a lingering southerly wobble. Expect much smaller surf across protected locations too. 

North of the border, we’ll see bumpy 3ft+ sets at exposed northern ends but the outer points of the southern Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast will see only small surf around 2ft. It’ll be quite ridable, but slow and inconsistent don’t get your hopes up for anything amazing.  

This weekend (Nov 10 - 11)

Model guidance suggests a pretty slow weekend of small residual swells across most of the East Coast, with the most promise being through the Far Northern NSW and SE Qld region where we’ll see slowly easing SE swells (from Friday’s size) from a weakening ridge the lower Coral Sea. 

However there’s a couple of regions I’d like to keep a watch on this week, that have outside potential for new swell generation.

First up is a small polar low forming S/SW of New Zealand on Wednesday. It develops right on the eastern periphery of our swell window and isn’t very well aligned, but future updates may swing this in our favour.

Secondly, the trough/front responsible for Thursday’s change (and Friday’s swell) will clear to the east, taking up residence off New Zealand’s West Coast on Friday. Again, the various atmospheric models don’t favour a favourable alignment for our coast, but there’s always the chance this will move around over the coming days. 

Thirdly, we’re likely to see a local trough off the Southern NSW coast, and this also has some potential for local swell generation. In fact early next week is looking quite promising, but we can’t rule out the weekend just yet either.

Next week (Nov 12 onwards)

A broad, unstable trough off the Southern NSW coast over the weekend is expected to merge with a second trough extending south form the Coral Sea, forming a mild easterly dip in the central/northern Tasman Sea on Sunday and kicking up a peaky short range E’ly swell for the first half of next week. It also looks like a ridge may concurrently rebuild across the SE Qld coast. Let’s take a closer look on Wednesday.