South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 29th October)

Best Days: Tues AM: plenty of south swell in Northern NSW (very small in SE Qld away from south swell magnets) with early light winds. Northerlies will spoil every other day.  

Recap: The weekend was pretty uninspiring. Saturday saw small residual swells with generally light winds, whilst an advancing southerly change on Sunday delivered progressively gustier conditions across the NSW (and eventually SE Qld) coasts throughout the day. A late increase in windswell came up behind the change, but there was no real quality at exposed beaches due to the wind, and protected locations remained tiny to flat. Today has seen a complete about-face across Northern NSW though with strong southerly swells pushing 4-5ft across the coast, under a generally light variable wind. North of the border, there’s been a large variation in size due to the direction, easily pushing 3ft+ at south swell magnets however the points have offered much smaller surf in the 1-2ft range tops, some locations have been even smaller. 

Solid in Coffs this morning…

… and also this afternoon

Plenty of size at D’Bah

This is about as big as the southern Gold points have been today (longboarder in the slot at Currumbin)

This week (Oct 30 - Nov 2)

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Wave heights are still strong though slowly easing across Southern NSW, so we can expect a similar (albeit delayed) trend in our neck of the woods for the next 12-18 hours. 

However, irrespective of this week's actual swell outlook, you’re going to have to make the most of Tuesday - especially the morning - as we’re looking at an extended spell of northerly winds from later Tuesday through until Saturday night. This is due to a developing high pressure system in the Tasman Sea, that’ll be the synoptic focal point for the entire week.

Local winds will temporarily ease early Thursday, when a weak trough off Southern NSW will briefly disrupt this flow, but the northerly breeze will then freshen into the afternoon before becoming quite strong and gusty into Friday.

Overall, winds speeds will be much lighter in SE Qld, but with much smaller swell sizes out of the south (compared to Northern NSW), there won’t be a lot to look forward to. 

As for swell, with the current event on the way out we have to look towards new sources for inbound energy. A secondary fetch around the same low that generated today’s swell is expected to renew small to medium sized south swell on Tuesday, with inconsistent 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron. As per usual, expect much smaller surf at beaches with less southerly exposure. Early morning may see some larger sets north of Coffs Harbour, being the tail end of today’s event.  

Across SE Qld, we’ll see a similar size distribution as per today, which is only small surf across the outer points (1-2ft) but up to 3ft at reliable south swell magnets and exposed northern ends. Surf early for the most size, and best conditions. Size will ease inot the afternoon.

As a side note, the Sunshine Coast is still at risk of a lingering easterly flow all day Tuesday - it’s likely light and variable winds may only occur south from Moreton Island. Freshening NE sea breezes are expected south from the Gold Coast into Tuesday afternoon, though winds should remain light from the Gold Coast through to Byron or Ballina.

On Wednesday, a second southerly swell with longer periods (13-14 seconds), sourced from the Southern Ocean over the weekend will arrive, but only favouring Northern NSW. I am not very confident on this particular energy, due to the remote source and poor alignment within our swell window, but I can’t rule out the chance for stray 2-3ft sets at reliable south swell magnets south of Byron. 

Elsewhere (including SE Qld) expect very small conditions under the freshening northerly breeze. 

Thursday may see an even longer period southerly swell (~17 seconds) glance the Northern NSW coast, but I’m doubtful it’ll generate much in the way of quality surf - only exposed northern corners will pick up small peaky waves. Friday looks similarly small with the northerly really starting to ratchet up in strength. 

So, make the most of Tuesday morning for the best waves of the working week.

This weekend (Nov 3 - 4)

On Thursday and Friday, a broad trade flow in the Coral Sea will broaden and strengthen, generating some small E/NE swell for SE Qld coasts. At this stage we may see a late increase on Friday afternoon, but Saturday looks like the most likely time to see a building trend, with 2-3ft waves across many open beaches, holding into Sunday.

Winds are modelled to be out of the north on Saturday though there’s a fair chance there’ll be an early nor’wester. Sunday’s winds are presently unclear due to the modelled presence of a surface trough that will probably deliver a southerly wind change to some coasts. I’ll revise in Wednesday’s notes. 

This trade swell won’t influence many locations south of about Ballina, however we have plenty of south swell on the way too.

A vigorous cold front and intense low will cross the Tasmanian region late Friday, driving strong southerly winds into Southern NSW on Saturday though stalling off Northern NSW in the form of a surface trough (mentioned above). 

The groundswell from this event is expected to push up on Sunday, and at this stage the low and front look really strong at the moment (though model revisions will probably downgrade this over the coming days). However the main problem is its less-than-stellar alignment within our swell window.

Based on current output I’d be expecting solid 5-6ft+ sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, but these patterns often have a habit of becoming even more zonal, and thus even less favourably aligned, as we draw closer to the computer-modeled event. So, keep a lid on your size expectations. Winds look a little suss as it is anyway.

Let’s take another look on Wednesday. 

Next week (Nov 5th onwards)

The weekend’s strong frontal activity will be associated with an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough, which likely means an extended period of south swell across Southern NSW. As such, we can look forward to more (though smaller) surf from this direction into the start of next week.