South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th October)

Best Days: Plenty of E'ly swell for the entire period. Most days should have workable options in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, though local winds will spoil conditions further south. 

Recap: Very large, windy surf Tuesday (8-10ft exposed coasts) has eased rapidly into today, though many regions were still pushing 6ft this morning. Winds have finally eased back across many coasts today, though we still have seen fresh nor’easters across the Mid North Coast (gusting 21kts at Coffs Harbour this afternoon). 

This week (Oct 18 - 19)

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For the next few days, we can divide the forecast into two distinct parts: swell and wind.

As for swell, we’re looking at a gradual easing through Thursday and Friday across all coasts, generally from 4-5ft to 3-5ft at most open beaches in Northern NSW, though wave heights are likely to be a little smaller north of the border thanks to the orientation of the trough in the northern Tasman Sea. 

Winds are the big issue for southern locations. A persistent ridge through the Tasman Sea will maintain moderate to fresh NE winds across the Mid North Coast both days, but they’ll be lighter in Far Northern NSW and lighter again throughout SE Qld. 

With the lack of synoptic offshore wind (or southerly breeze, for the points), we can’t be certain of any major quality in the surf, but conditions should be quite manageable throughout Far Northern NSW and SE Qld - if not occasionally good, during early periods of variable conditions. Otherwise, you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern corner.

This weekend (Oct 20 - 21)

The trough in the northern Tasman Sea is expected to restrengthen through Thursday (see below), generating new E’ly swells that will rebuild surf size back into the 4ft to maybe 6ft range for exposed Northern NSW beaches into Saturday, before easing into Sunday.


Again, the position and alignment of the primary fetch will probably create slightly smaller surf throughout SE Qld, but we will still be under the threat of northerly winds all weekend as a shallow trough moves up the Southern NSW coast, bringing a mild southerly change to that region and tightening the isobars across our hood.

This change is not however expected to push into our region, so all coasts will see northerly winds to some degree both days, strongest in the south. This will create problems in maximising the otherwise strong swell potential.

Note: this size range is a little higher than the models are estimating (and is only for reliable swell magnets), however I’m utilising the assumption of a stationary fetch working on a pre-existing active sea state within good striking range from the coast, that’s likely to punch much higher than our computer generated forecast of around 3-4ft.

Next week (Oct 22 onwards)

There's still lots of divergence between models runs for next week, but it’s very unlikely that we’ll see a period of small surf conditions settle in. 

The trades are expected remain active south of Fiji and chances are pretty good that a broad trough will linger from the lower Coral Sea through the western Tasman Sea along the NSW Coast, with a resulting easterly infeed supplying plenty of swell for all coasts. And there’s still a chance that we’ll see a more significant feature develop somewhere along the East Coast too, though it’s not apparent where and when at this point in time. 

See you Friday!