South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 5th October)

Best Days: Sat: fun peaky waves at most coasts. Sun: best at the points as winds trend more S'ly. Mon: back to light winds and fun though easing E'ly swells. Later Wed/Thurs onwards: solid swells expected for the second half of the week, though windy at times and likely much smaller in SE Qld. 

Recap: Northerly winds created issues throughout Thursday though early morning saw isolated regions of NW winds for a few hours, allowing for some peaky beach breaks. A trough pushed across the region today, creating light variable winds in many locations, though northerlies persisted about much of SE Qld. Interestingly, winds swung light S’ly through SW across the Tweed and southern Gold Coast this afternoon (though the Seaway remained NE), allowing the southern points to produce some fun waves for the last few hours of the day - see surfcam snaps below from Snapper Rocks, comparing 1pm and then 5:30pm. Wave heights remained around 3ft out of the east both days, originating from the trough in the north-eastern Tasman Sea earlier this week. Some small long period S’ly swell was also evident in northern NSW early Thursday, building into the afternoon and holding today, though it was very inconsistent at times. Strong southerly winds nosed into the Mid North Coast around lunchtime and has built short range energy in this region this afternoon. 

Snapper Rocks this afternoon, before (N’ly) and after (S’ly)

This weekend (Oct 6 - 7)

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Looks like a fun weekend of waves in many regions, with inconsistent E’ly swells expected to hold both days around the 3ft mark at open beaches. There’ll be long breaks between the sets, but it’ll be nicely lined up when they come through.

A slight pulse is likely through Saturday afternoon and into Sunday morning, up to 3-4ft though no change is expected in the frequency department - it’ll be very inconsistent at times. Expect smaller surf running down the points, becoming much smaller across the inner sections. 

Surface conditions look good both days north from Byron under the influence of a troughy pattern, that’ll deliver variable conditions on Saturday then a moderate SW tending S’ly breeze through Sunday, ideal for the outer points. 

South from Byron, we’ll be at risk of SW tending S’ly winds both days. Most of Saturday looks OK south to about Coffs Harbour, but breezey conditions will persist across much of the Mid North Coast, likely from the SW though with a period of S’lies through the afternoon. Overnight and into Sunday morning, southerly winds will encroach a little further up the coast - to about Ballina - but then dissipate into the afternoon. As such southern ends will be best off this weekend.

Southern parts of the Mid North Coast are also likely to see continuing SE swell from today’s synoptic pattern, though the primary fetch will ease slowly through Saturday, leading to a gradual easing in size. The Lower Mid North Coast should still pick up 4-6ft sets early Saturday (easing during the day and into Suynday) but as you track north from Port Macquarie, surf size will drop off and the SE swell probably won’t be noticeable (above the pre-existing E’ly swell) north from Coffs Harbour. 

Next week (Oct 8 onwards)

Light variable winds and easing swells are expected on Monday, ahead of a freshening northerly flow into Tuesday that’ll create problems that afternoon across most coasts, holding into Wednesday morning. Aim for the mornings at the wide open beaches for the best surf. 

The second half of the week looks very dynamic, with an upper trough approaching from the west, combining with an intense polar outbreak to generate either a deep Tasman Low or a possible East Coast Low some time from around Wednesday onwards (see chart below). 

The resulting surf outlook for our region is not clear, because of the divergence in model guidance - we’ll certainly see solid swells from the south across Northern NSW from later Wednesday or Thursday onwards, though there could be a wide variation in size (i.e. much smaller across SE Qld) depending on where and how this low is positioned. There's certainly the potential for a very large swell event across the East Coast, though if you had to hedge your bets, it's much more likely in Southern NSW than Northern NSW. 

In any case, there’ll also be a lot of wind associated with this synoptic pattern and it’s expected to be slow moving, occupying our region through until the weekend, so there won’t be any shortage of swell for some time - though quality could be an issue at exposed spots. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!