South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 26th September)

Best Days: Thurs: solid long period S/SE swell reaching a peak in the a'noon (much smaller in SE Qld), generally good winds for the Northern NSW and Gold Coast outer points. A little more tricky on Sunshine Coast. Fri: easing though still strong S/SE swell, light winds early morning. Again, much smaller in SE Qld. Sun/Mon: punchy though windy combo of S/SE swell and some small NE cyclone swell. 

Recap: A peaky mix of swells have provided OK waves across most coasts over the last few days, though it’s been a little on the small side in SE Qld, whilst moderate to fresh S’ly winds kept open Northern NSW beaches bumpy through Tuesday. Afternoon sea breezes cropped up from the NE today though weren’t too strong. And we’ve just had a ripper thunderstorm cross the Kingscliff office in the last hour.. ‘bout time! No sign of the leading edge of the new long period S’ly swell yet either. 

Peaky D'bah this morning

This week (Sep 27 - 28)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

Today’s swell combo will ease into Thursday morning, before being replaced with a solid long period S/SE swell throughout the day.

This swell was generated by an impressive polar low that pushed towards New Zealand late Monday and Tuesday. Although not perfectly aligned within our swell window, it displayed a broad, lengthy and sustained fetch and was working on an active sea state. 

Wave heights will build towards an afternoon peak, reaching to 5-6ft at south facing beaches south of Byron, however the bigger waves will be rather inconsistent at times owing to the poor fetch alignment. On the other hand, the large swell periods associated with this event should boost surf size at offshore bombies and other reliable south swell magnets. Beaches, reefs and points not exposed to the south will be considerably smaller. 

This system was even less favourably aligned for SE Qld, but the impressive swell periods should allow for a reasonable amount of energy to bend back into the coast. Although we’ll see only small leftover energy early morning, the afternoon should pulse up into the 2-3ft range across the outer points and exposed northern ends should see bigger waves in the 4ft range on dark. 

And the good news is that we’re now looking at better winds across SE Qld on Thursday than was mentioned in Monday's notes.

The current trough pushing off the coast tonight will bring a return southerly flow to the Northern NSW coast in the early hours of Thursday morning, reaching Yamba or Evans around dawn, and then the Gold Coast mid-morning. it'll be gusty at times through the morning but should ease as the day progresses to become light into the afternoon.

Ahead of the change we’ll see W’ly winds on the Gold Coast, though the Sunshine Coast may not experience this change at all, and is likely to see early NW winds tend light and variable through the morning. Sea breezes are likely in all regions after lunch. 

Friday’s impending northerlies have been delayed in the latest model runs (and Saturday now looks like the seeing the most strength). As such, early Friday is looking at light morning offshore winds, and steadily easing though still solid S’ly swells from Thursday’s late peak. It’ll drop quickly in size throughout the day so aim for the morning for the most size and best conditions; we’ll see the N’ly in across most coasts before lunchtime.

This weekend (Sep 29 - 30)

Gusty N’ly winds will persist into Saturday morning but a southerly change is expected to advance along the coast throughout the day, reaching Port Macquarie early morning. However the timing on this change is not clear as to when it’ll reach the border - some models are suggesting it may not arrive until early Sunday morning. 

This means we’ll see a wide range in surf potential on Saturday, relevant to the position of the trough. With the model guidance moving around quite a bit on this we’ll have to wait for Friday’s update. Either way, expect the south swell to be all but gone by this time, and a local NE windwell to be dominant (there'll be fun beachies in and around the position of the trough as winds temporarily slacken off).

Sunday’s shaping up to deliver strong S/SE winds behind the trough, and building short range S/SE swells that’ll be best suited to the Gold Coast points with sets around 3ft+. Again, let’s firm up the specifics on Friday. 

Just to add further complexity into the mix, a Tropical Depression forming out near the Solomon Islands today (read more here) may evolve into a Tropical Cyclone tomorrow, and whilst not particularly well aligned for our region, is expected to generate a small NE swell for Sunday afternoon. At this stage the local S/SE swell will be larger and more dominant, but it’s still early days so let’s see how things are looking on Friday.

Next week (Oct 1 onwards)

We’ve got a complex outlook for next week. In summary:

1. Sunday’s change will linger about the region, persisting punchy though windy SE swells into Monday, with a likely easing trend.
2. Sunday’s late arrival of NE cyclone swell will persist (and peak) into Monday, though no great size is expected. It’s likely the pre-existing SE swell will continue to be the dominant energy.
3. A series of intense Southern Ocean fronts south of Tasmania will be poorly aligned (again!) for our coast but their strength is impressive, and we can’t rule out some spread back up the NSW coast - right through next week, with the most size potential mid-late week.
4. Moderate trades in and around the Fijian region from the weekend onwards look like they could become part of a deepening surface-trough-cum-subtropical low (see below), and in turn a more substantial though distant groundswell source through the middle to latter part of next week, providing E’ly swell for the end of next week and (more likely) the following weekend.

Bring it on, eh?