South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th September)

Best Days: Sun: small waves across the outer SE Qld points, slightly bigger at semi-exposed Northern NSW points. Nothing amazing though. Mon: easing S'ly swells but with much lighter winds. 

Recap: We’ve seen a mix of small, long range E’ly swell and mid-range S’ly then SE swells across all coasts over the last few days, though fresh SE winds yesterday afternoon and fresh N'ly winds this afternoon have created a few problems at exposed beaches. Wave heights reached 3-5ft across Northern NSW on Tuesday (out of the south) with today’s new SE swell levelling out around 3ft. Slightly smaller surf has occured throughout SE Qld, biggest at northern ends. 

Fun waves at south-facing beaches in Coffs this afternoon; old mate standing up (for size reference) in the second shot, showing the SE swell nicely

Plenty of E'ly lines getting into D'Bah, though very inconsisent

This week (Sep 13 - 14)

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The models didn’t really pick up today's SE swell very well, but I think the guidance is pretty good for the next few days. And that is: nothing of any great interest.

We’ll continue to see a small peaky mix of swells from the east and south-east but even open beaches will struggle to pick up much more than a stray 2ft+ set both days (best chance early Thursday), though the models are suggesting relatively long periods out of the east - so there’s always an outside possibility we’ll be pleasantly surprised. It’s a very low chance though.

In any case, we’ll see freshening northerly winds across all areas - strongest across the Mid North Coast - and this will create problems at most open beaches. As such you’ll have to tuck into a sheltered northern corner for anything remotely rideable.

This weekend (Sep 15 - 16)

Northerly winds will persist into Saturday so whatever leftover swell is still on offer will continue to be bumpy at most open beaches, with sheltered northern corners your only chance for a rideable wave. Expect very strong N’ly winds south from Byron through Saturday afternoon (a little less strength, though still notable in SE Qld). 

These gusty winds will precede a southerly change that’s expected to rocket up the East Coast overnight on Saturday, reaching Port Macquarie before midnight and then the border some time around dawn. In fact, we should see some NE windswell across exposed beaches early Sunday morning but it’ll be quickly overtaken with building short range S’ly windswell in the lee of the change that should reach a choppy, low quality 4-6ft at south facing beaches (south of Byron) throughout the afternoon.

However, the low period and southerly direction will cause surf size to be much, much smaller at protected spots. And across most SE Qld beaches, we really won’t see a great deal of size - occasional 2ft+ sets across the outer points, though without any great quality (southerly windswells never wrap efficiently down the points) and exposed northern ends will be bigger but very wind affected. 

As such, keep your expectations low this weekend. Best of an ordinary lot will probably be the outer SE Qld points on Sunday afternoon for a few small sliders. 

Next week (Sep 17 onwards)

There’s still nothing of any great interest modelled for the Tasman Sea into the longer term, however model guidance is suggesting a building phase of activity through the South Pacific that should bring about a period of extended, if perhaps only small to moderate (at best) E'ly swell, arriving through the second half of next week and holding into the weekend. Let’s see if Friday’s model runs are holding true.

Otherwise, expect Sunday’s southerly swell to ease daily through Monday, cleaning up quickly as winds become much lighter from the SW thru’ S. More in Friday’s notes.