South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 27th August)

Best Days: Tues: OK waves across the semi-exposed NSW and outer SE Qld points (only small north of the border). Wed: small clean leftovers early at exposed beaches, mainly Northern NSW. Large a'noon kick in new S/SE groundswell, probably up to about Yamba (extending to Far North overnight). Thurs: very large S/SE groundswell in Northern NSW, plenty of size in SE Qld. Best suited to the points for experienced surfers. Light winds, size easing into a'noon.  Sat: small clean leftover beachies, biggest in Northern NSW. 

Recap: Saturday picked up plenty of south swell across Northern NSW, but wave heights were very small north of the border. Sunday picked up a small NE windswell from a local fetch, which just held in at exposed spots into this morning, before easing throughout the day. Saturday’s south swell also eased into Sunday though buoy data showed a small long period S’ly swell glanced the coast, which provided occasional 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches throughout today, ahead a stronger rebuilding S’ly swell this afternoon from a strong front pushing through the Tasman Sea this morning. 

Leftover NE swell at Snapper Rocks this morning

Small NE swell at Yamba this morning

Small leftover NE swell at Coolum this morning

This week (Aug 28 - 31)

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There’s a lot of strong swell on the way this week, though it’ll be very south in direction and will therefore create a wide range in heights between Northern NSW and South-east Queensland beaches.

Right now the strong front that pushed through the Tasman Sea today is reaching maturity, and will retreat into Tuesday as a Tasman Low deepens well to the east of Tasmania.

The southerly swell generated in the lee of today’s change will peak overnight and then slowly easing through Tuesday. Exposed spots in Northern NSW will see quite a bit of leftover SW tending S’ly breeze and bumpy sets around 4-6ft, however protected southern ends will be smaller and cleaner. 

Across SE Qld, this swell won’t be very well aligned so we’re looking at very inconsistent sets around 2ft+ across the outer points, easing during the day (conditions will be clean here with SW tending S’y winds). The exposed northern end of the Gold Coast will see bigger surf near 3ft+ but it’ll be be more wind affected. Expect slightly smaller surf across the Sunny Coast.

Most of Wednesday will see wave heights levelling out north of about Yamba, with size around 3-5ft at south facing beaches up to Byron Bay, smaller surf elsewhere and very little energy across the outer SE Qld points (just a stray 1-2ft wave, with bigger sets at exposed northern ends). However we’ll be between swells at this point, and into the afternoon the Mid North Coast coast will start to experience a rapid increase in very large S/SE groundswell generated by the Tasman Low. 

Although this low will be ideally aimed into the Southern and Central NSW coasts, we’re still looking at an incredible swell event across northern locations. There are several key synoptic features worth pointing out:

1. This low will be slow moving and working on an active sea state generated by today’s front
2. The core fetch will slingshot around the south-western flank of the low, aimed nicely towards Northern NSW for a reasonable length of time
3. Wind speeds close to the centre of the low are expected to reach 50kts for about a day, and the supporting fetch will be proportionally quite strong
4. The low is ideally placed within the East Coast’s short to mid range swell window - far enough away so that the full effects of the low (wind/rain etc) are not felt across the mainland as the swell reaches a peak, but close enough so that there is the least amount of swell decay

The main issue for Northern NSW and (even more so) SE Qld is the strong southerly component in the swell direction. However the strong swell periods will override some of the directional deficiencies and we’re looking at some cracking waves along the points. 

Putting Wednesday afternoon’s rapidly building surf (across the Mid North Coast) to one side, and Thursday is shaping up to deliver some amazing waves with light offshore winds, and sets pushing 8-10ft across locations south of Byron offering good southerly exposure; even the regional semi-exposed points should see a healthy percentage of size, though we can expect much smaller surf at protected southern ends. 

Across SE Qld, the southerly swell direction will shave off a considerable amount of size but I’m more optimistic for this event compared to usual southerly swells (for all of the reasons listed above) so it’s likely the outer points will come in anywhere between 3ft and occasionally 5ft, with larger surf pushing well north of 6ft+ at exposed northern ends. If anything, the Sunshine Coast is likely to come in a little smaller than the Gold Coast.

However, there will be a lot of water moving around so expect heavy sweeps across most regions on Thursday: this will be a day only suitable for those surfers will complete confidence in their ability. 

Steadily easing south swell is then expected from late Thursday through Friday, and northerly winds will strengthen as a front approaches from the west, wiping out most surf prospects apart from isolated regions that can handle the size and a brief NW breeze. So if you’re planning to surf at all this week, probably don’t book in any flexi time on Friday.

This weekend (Sep 1 - 2)

You’ll have to make the most of Saturday as we’re looking at tiny swells and freshening southerly winds on Sunday as a front pushes through the region.

Saturday itself won’t be very big anyway. Friday’s southerly swell will have eased considerably, and apart from some small peaky NE windswell, we’re looking at very small waves throughout SE Qld, and just a few 2-3ft leftovers at south swell magnets south of Byron. 

Winds will however swing W’ly in the wake of a front so conditions will be clean. 

Sunday’s tiny surf will slowly rise through the afternoon at south facing beaches in Northern NSW though with gusty accompanying southerlies there won’t be much to look forward to. 

Next week (Sep 3 onwards)

A strong frontal passage over the SE corner of the country this weekend looks pretty beefy. It won’t be ideally aimed for our region but the sheer strength and breadth of each fetch contained within the passage will contribute heavy S’ly swells through the southern Tasman Sea, which should maintain solid waves across Northern NSW through Monday and Tuesday, up to 5-6ft+ at south facing beaches south of Byron. however the southerly swell direction won’t favour SE Qld very much. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.